Spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) are vulnerable to climate change because, be... more Spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) are vulnerable to climate change because, before spawning in autumn, adults hold in river pools where temperature increases during summer. As these species naturally experience temperatures close to tolerable thresholds, climate-induced flow and temperature changes can increase their vulnerability. Our objective was to assemble an analytical framework to assess temperature and streamflow thresholds that would lead to critical reductions in spring-run Chinook salmon abundance, and to evaluate management adaptations to ameliorate these impacts. The analytical framework coupled climate data with watershed hydrology and salmon population dynamics models. We used WEAP, an integrated watershed hydrology, water management, and temperature model; and SALMOD, a spatially explicit and size/stage structured model that predicts population dynamics of salmon in freshwater systems. The models simulated weekly mean streamflow, temperature, and s...
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 2012
ABSTRACT Spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) are particularly vulnerable to clim... more ABSTRACT Spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) are particularly vulnerable to climate change because adults over-summer in freshwater streams before spawning in autumn. We examined streamflow and water temperature regimes that could lead to long-term reductions in spring-run Chinook salmon (SRCS) in a California stream and evaluated management adaptations to ameliorate these impacts. Bias-corrected and spatially downscaled climate data from six general circulation models and two emission scenarios for the period 2010-2099 were used as input to two linked models: a water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model to simulate weekly mean streamflow and water temperature in Butte Creek, California that were used as input to SALMOD, a spatially explicit and size/stage structured model of salmon population dynamics in freshwater systems. For all climate scenarios and model combinations, WEAP yielded lower summer base flows and higher water temperatures relative to historical conditions, while SALMOD yielded increased adult summer thermal mortality and population declines. Of management adaptations tested, only ceasing water diversion for power production from the summer holding reach resulted in cooler water temperatures, more adults surviving to spawn, and extended population survival time, albeit with a significant loss of power production. The most important conclusion of this work is that long-term survival of SRCS in Butte Creek is unlikely in the face of climate change and that simple changes to water operations are not likely to dramatically change vulnerability to extinction. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000194. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) are vulnerable to climate change because, be... more Spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) are vulnerable to climate change because, before spawning in autumn, adults hold in river pools where temperature increases during summer. As these species naturally experience temperatures close to tolerable thresholds, climate-induced flow and temperature changes can increase their vulnerability. Our objective was to assemble an analytical framework to assess temperature and streamflow thresholds that would lead to critical reductions in spring-run Chinook salmon abundance, and to evaluate management adaptations to ameliorate these impacts. The analytical framework coupled climate data with watershed hydrology and salmon population dynamics models. We used WEAP, an integrated watershed hydrology, water management, and temperature model; and SALMOD, a spatially explicit and size/stage structured model that predicts population dynamics of salmon in freshwater systems. The models simulated weekly mean streamflow, temperature, and s...
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 2012
ABSTRACT Spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) are particularly vulnerable to clim... more ABSTRACT Spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) are particularly vulnerable to climate change because adults over-summer in freshwater streams before spawning in autumn. We examined streamflow and water temperature regimes that could lead to long-term reductions in spring-run Chinook salmon (SRCS) in a California stream and evaluated management adaptations to ameliorate these impacts. Bias-corrected and spatially downscaled climate data from six general circulation models and two emission scenarios for the period 2010-2099 were used as input to two linked models: a water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model to simulate weekly mean streamflow and water temperature in Butte Creek, California that were used as input to SALMOD, a spatially explicit and size/stage structured model of salmon population dynamics in freshwater systems. For all climate scenarios and model combinations, WEAP yielded lower summer base flows and higher water temperatures relative to historical conditions, while SALMOD yielded increased adult summer thermal mortality and population declines. Of management adaptations tested, only ceasing water diversion for power production from the summer holding reach resulted in cooler water temperatures, more adults surviving to spawn, and extended population survival time, albeit with a significant loss of power production. The most important conclusion of this work is that long-term survival of SRCS in Butte Creek is unlikely in the face of climate change and that simple changes to water operations are not likely to dramatically change vulnerability to extinction. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000194. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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