Papers by Jose Maria Blanco
Security informatics and law enforcement, Oct 2, 2019
The security and structure of Europe is at an unprecedented risk due to both political and social... more The security and structure of Europe is at an unprecedented risk due to both political and social developments. The political involves the complex situation around “Brexit”, which is forcing Europe to reorganise its democratic structure and values, and the social includes the rising risks of terrorism, hate crime and the refugee crisis which is reinforcing a polarised climate of Euroscepticism. This chapter takes an analytical phenomenological approach to explore how these nuanced threats are affecting the stability of Europe’s framework. To achieve this the chapter explores the processes that lead to the origins of polarisation, how it has disseminated within each sphere of society (political, social, economic and technological) and the implications this has on the security structure of Europe. The chapter displays this transgression through a “social polarisation cycle” which highlights the correlation between indicators such as polarisation and its consequences which includes hate crime that can later develop into an extremist threat. As the outcome of the analysis the chapter highlights several recommendations that Europe should make to its current state, organisational, academic and policy frameworks. These developments include using a holistic approach to tackle radicalisation and hate crime, adopting a multi-agency approach between relevant organisations and stakeholders and improving the breadth of current knowledge to aid in decision-making. The outcome of these recommendations is to provide a more stable framework for Europe, in an age where unprecedented challenges are threatening its confidence and perceived value as a security society.
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Using Open Data to Detect Organized Crime Threats, 2017
As Europol (2015) points out, “criminal activities are embedded in a larger environment, and chan... more As Europol (2015) points out, “criminal activities are embedded in a larger environment, and changes in the criminal groups and SOC areas often reflect an adaptation to facilitating factors, vulnerabilities and/or opportunities and infrastructures used in the immediate or broader environment”. In this chapter, authors offer a framework for the analysis of the current environment and the future developments of a criminal phenomenon. Open sources, environmental scanning, trend analysis and a new proposed process of intelligence are the key pillars of the model used, keeping a balance with the methodological framework developed by Europol and used in their SOCTA reports. The methodological framework proposed in the chapter is applied to the research of the future of Organised Crime and a specific typology—cocaine trafficking—in order to facilitate the understanding of the model.
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espanolLa amenaza nuclear es habitualmente senalada como una de las de mayor impacto posible en c... more espanolLa amenaza nuclear es habitualmente senalada como una de las de mayor impacto posible en caso de materializacion. Existe desde la Guerra Fria, aunque la preocupacion actual se centra en la posible accion de grupos terroristas, que actuan a nivel global, en escenarios como la adquisicion de una bomba nuclear, un ataque o sabotaje a una central nuclear, o la elaboracion y uso de una «bomba sucia». Ante el riesgo existente los Gobiernos han visto la necesidad de invertir mayor cantidad de recursos en la proteccion y guarda de las centrales nucleares que hay repartidas por todo el mundo, asi como de profundizar en medidas que controlen el posible acceso a material nuclear utilizado en miles de centros civiles. Por ello, el tema central de la reciente Cumbre de Seguridad Nuclear de 2016 desarrollada en Washington DC ha sido el potencial peligro que corren todas las naciones ante un ataque de estas caracteristicas. El presente articulo analiza tanto el contenido de la Cumbre y el l...
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ePOOLICE is the acronym for early Pursuit against Organised crime using environmental scanning, t... more ePOOLICE is the acronym for early Pursuit against Organised crime using environmental scanning, the Law and Intelligence systems. It is a project co-funded by the European Union (EU) under its seventh framework programme for research and development (FP7). The project has several objectives: the rapid identification of new organised crime threats, the identification of ‘weak signals’ by monitoring the external environment (political, economic, social, technological factors), as well as the identification of indicators. The project is based on several methodologies aided by the development of technological tools. It has been tested in several scenarios, especially in human trafficking and cocaine trafficking.
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espanolEn momentos como los actuales, de vertiginoso cambio, enorme complejidad e interrelacion e... more espanolEn momentos como los actuales, de vertiginoso cambio, enorme complejidad e interrelacion entre fenomenos y altas dosis de incertidumbre, el conocimiento y su gestion, integrandolo en todos los procesos de las organizaciones, es una obligacion que les permite avanzar en la anticipacion y construccion del futuro y adaptarse a escenarios turbulentos, detectando nuevos riesgos y amenazas, pero tambien oportunidades. Con dicho fin, en el presente articulo se senalan las principales fuentes de conocimiento en materia de seguridad y se resalta el objetivo estrategico al que el conocimiento atiende. Un diseno estrategico que pasa por disponer de conocimiento, inteligencia y vision de futuro. En seguridad serian aplicables, adicionalmente, nuevos modelos de toma de decisiones en situaciones de incertidumbre, que de una u otra manera se basan en la disposicion y gestion del conocimiento. Finalmente, el conocimiento tiene una finalidad: su difusion y su utilizacion. La Cultura de Seguri...
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The world is continuously evolving in regards to the so-called VUCA environments (volatility, unc... more The world is continuously evolving in regards to the so-called VUCA environments (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity). If we adopt a PESTLE analytical model (which includes political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental factors), we can see that new technologies are the great “game changers”. This concept, usually considered in foresight and future studies, can be defined as “a new introduced element of factor that changes an existing situation or activity in a significant way”. This technological factor (T-factor) is changing the way that we live, think, interact, communicate, or access services in an increasingly digital world. Considering what Lowenthal and other authors have pointed out, intelligence tradecraft is in a permanent process of “fatigue reform”. This paper will identify how technologies are: first, affecting the so-called intelligence cycle; second, offering new opportunities to collect, evaluate and integrate old and new sources...
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Thirteen years after 9/11, the production of expertise about terrorism, by members of the academi... more Thirteen years after 9/11, the production of expertise about terrorism, by members of the academic world and law enforcement agency (LEA) analysts has increased. Despite this fact, it has had no influence either on the methodologies used or in the need to integrate the huge amount of fragmented knowledge that already exists. This article proposes a new holistic approach for the prevention of and fight against terrorism.
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Springer eBooks, 2017
As Europol (2015) points out, “criminal activities are embedded in a larger environment, and chan... more As Europol (2015) points out, “criminal activities are embedded in a larger environment, and changes in the criminal groups and SOC areas often reflect an adaptation to facilitating factors, vulnerabilities and/or opportunities and infrastructures used in the immediate or broader environment”. In this chapter, authors offer a framework for the analysis of the current environment and the future developments of a criminal phenomenon. Open sources, environmental scanning, trend analysis and a new proposed process of intelligence are the key pillars of the model used, keeping a balance with the methodological framework developed by Europol and used in their SOCTA reports. The methodological framework proposed in the chapter is applied to the research of the future of Organised Crime and a specific typology—cocaine trafficking—in order to facilitate the understanding of the model.
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This chapter defends the use of imagination and creativity as a tool to understand and tackle the... more This chapter defends the use of imagination and creativity as a tool to understand and tackle the future of organised crime . The report about 9/11 stressed in a chapter devoted to prospective analysis (“Foresight and Hindsight”) that the lack of imagination was the major mistake when trying to prevent terrorist attacks. But imagining the future is difficult because of the limits created by our previous knowledge and our experiences, which conforms mental models, hard to be changed. How could we introduce imagination and creativity in our intelligence process, trying to anticipate the future and allowing us to develop current strategies to tackle future risks from the present? How could we avoid thinking about the future only through the knowledge of the past and the present? Past and present cannot always predict the future. Disruptive events are common in the history, pointing out that time is not linear. This chapter offers different approaches: prediction techniques and foresight techniques, offering examples of their application to the future of organised crime.
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The core of evidence-based policy should be to evaluate if counterterrorism (CT) policies work an... more The core of evidence-based policy should be to evaluate if counterterrorism (CT) policies work and to fix the way we can measure them. For this purpose we propose a holistic approach, a model, in order to ensure that policing designers have the best knowledge and the best intelligence when they take decisions on CT. Evaluating public policies on CT is a continuous process that offers, at least, three key moments (the existence of prior knowledge and necessary intelligence, failures in decision-making and the measurement of the effects and impacts that the policies developed have had), a process led by different actors (universities, think tanks, intelligence analysts, government civil servants, lobbyists, citizens’ desires and needs, etc.) and a process that aims not only to know the effectiveness of the policies, but also to improve future policymaking. The framework, and the six-step evaluation process we propose, try to face the ‘big picture’ of terrorism, to ensure that CT polic...
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Revista de Estudios en Seguridad Internacional, 2016
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Ideología, tipología, grupos, terrorismo, actividades criminales, análisis crítico sobre el fenóm... more Ideología, tipología, grupos, terrorismo, actividades criminales, análisis crítico sobre el fenómeno, tendencias y medidas a adoptar
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El reconocimiento del profundo cambio producido desde el 11-S en la amenaza terrorista, su
capaci... more El reconocimiento del profundo cambio producido desde el 11-S en la amenaza terrorista, su
capacidad adaptativa, y la necesidad de responder de una manera más flexible a los riesgos a que nos
enfrentamos, permite trazar unas líneas sobre lo que podríamos denominar, aplicando los estudios
del sociólogo polaco Bauman, como “seguridad líquida”.
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El crimen organizado en México afecta a la estabilidad estatal, potenciando la fragilidad de sus ... more El crimen organizado en México afecta a la estabilidad estatal, potenciando la fragilidad de sus instituciones, en una continua espiral de causas y efectos. En el momento actual resulta limitativo condicionar el análisis de este fenómeno a la mera acción de los cárteles o al lucrativo negocio del narcotráfico, pese a que el término narco permanezca imbatible en el día a día del país azteca.
El poder de la criminalidad organizada mexicana obedece a su penetración en cinco dimensiones clave: el territorio, las instituciones –políticas, policiales, judiciales, penitenciarias-, la economía, la sociedad y la cultura.
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Terrorism, radicalisation and violent extremism are great challenges in these times of uncertaint... more Terrorism, radicalisation and violent extremism are great challenges in these times of uncertainty. This paper analyses the need to improve the knowledge to provide a solid foundation for the design of effective security Counter-Terrorism strategies.
Broad definitions of stakeholders are considered (including universities, think-tanks, the intelligence community, media, communities, and minorities and citizens), together with the integration of methods and techniques of analysis drawn from the social sciences and intelligence techniques. It proposes new approaches to generate knowledge through the integration of critical perspectives allowing an improved decision-making process that must be followed by continuous evaluations.
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Papers by Jose Maria Blanco
capacidad adaptativa, y la necesidad de responder de una manera más flexible a los riesgos a que nos
enfrentamos, permite trazar unas líneas sobre lo que podríamos denominar, aplicando los estudios
del sociólogo polaco Bauman, como “seguridad líquida”.
El poder de la criminalidad organizada mexicana obedece a su penetración en cinco dimensiones clave: el territorio, las instituciones –políticas, policiales, judiciales, penitenciarias-, la economía, la sociedad y la cultura.
Broad definitions of stakeholders are considered (including universities, think-tanks, the intelligence community, media, communities, and minorities and citizens), together with the integration of methods and techniques of analysis drawn from the social sciences and intelligence techniques. It proposes new approaches to generate knowledge through the integration of critical perspectives allowing an improved decision-making process that must be followed by continuous evaluations.
capacidad adaptativa, y la necesidad de responder de una manera más flexible a los riesgos a que nos
enfrentamos, permite trazar unas líneas sobre lo que podríamos denominar, aplicando los estudios
del sociólogo polaco Bauman, como “seguridad líquida”.
El poder de la criminalidad organizada mexicana obedece a su penetración en cinco dimensiones clave: el territorio, las instituciones –políticas, policiales, judiciales, penitenciarias-, la economía, la sociedad y la cultura.
Broad definitions of stakeholders are considered (including universities, think-tanks, the intelligence community, media, communities, and minorities and citizens), together with the integration of methods and techniques of analysis drawn from the social sciences and intelligence techniques. It proposes new approaches to generate knowledge through the integration of critical perspectives allowing an improved decision-making process that must be followed by continuous evaluations.