Bu calismada, Turkiye’nin sanayi urunleri ithalatinda en buyuk paya sahip bolge olan Avrupa Birligi ulkelerinden yapilan sanayi urunleri ithalatinin talep denklemi ile toplam sanayi ithalati talep denklemi panel veri yontemleri... more
Bu calismada, Turkiye’nin sanayi urunleri ithalatinda en buyuk paya sahip bolge olan Avrupa Birligi ulkelerinden yapilan sanayi urunleri ithalatinin talep denklemi ile toplam sanayi ithalati talep denklemi panel veri yontemleri kullanilarak karsilastirilmistir. Tahmin yontemi Breitung iki basamakli tahmin edicidir (two step estimator). Tahmin sonuclari, Turkiye’nin AB ulkelerinden ithalati ile dunyadan ithalatinin cesitli benzer ve farkli ozelliklere sahip oldugunu gostermektedir. Beklendigi gibi GSYH ve yatirimlar hem AB ulkelerinden, hem dunyadan ithalati benzer oranlarda artirmaktadir. 2008 krizinde Turkiye’nin AB ulkelerinden ithalati diger faktorlerin etkileri arindirildiginda dahi dusmustur. Ithalat fiyat gostergelerindeki artislar her iki denklemde de ithalat degerini artirmaktadir. Bu durum, fiyat artislari karsinda Turkiye’nin ithalatini miktar bazinda ayni oranda dusurememesinden kaynaklanmaktadir. Tuketim harcamalarindaki artis AB’den ithalati etkileyen bir faktor degilke...
Reel kur cok sayida makroekonomik degiskeni etkileyen onemli bir gostergedir. Bu calismada Turk Lirasi reel kurunun uzun donemli denge degeri ve bu denge degerinden ne kadar uzakta oldugu ekonometrik olarak incelenmistir. Tamamen... more
Reel kur cok sayida makroekonomik degiskeni etkileyen onemli bir gostergedir. Bu calismada Turk Lirasi reel kurunun uzun donemli denge degeri ve bu denge degerinden ne kadar uzakta oldugu ekonometrik olarak incelenmistir. Tamamen Degistirilmis En Kucuk Kareler Yontemi (FMOLS) kullanilarak olusturulan uzun vadeli modelde, reel kur bagimli degisken olarak ve “Turkiye ve OECD Ulkelerinin Goreli Birim Is Gucu Maliyetleri”, “Turkiye’ye Yurt Disindan Sermaye Akimlari”, “Turkiye’nin GSYH’si”, “Dis Ticaret Hacmi/GSYH Orani” bagimsiz degiskenler olarak alinmistir. Regresyon analizinin sonuclari, Balassa-Samuelson etkisini dogrulamaktadir; Turkiye’nin buyume oraninin artmasi reel kura degerlenme yonunde etki etmektedir. Dis Ticaret Hacminde meydana gelen artis TL’yi deger kazandirma yonunde etkilemektedir. Turkiye’ye yurt disindan sermaye girislerinin TL’de degerlenme baskisi yarattigi gorulmektedir. OECD ulkelerinin Turkiye’ye goreli olarak is gucu maliyetlerinin artisi reel kura deger kaybe...
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ABSTRACT In this study, the structure of Turkish exports to ten EU countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain, and the United Kingdom) and the European Union total are examined and compared. For... more
ABSTRACT In this study, the structure of Turkish exports to ten EU countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain, and the United Kingdom) and the European Union total are examined and compared. For each country, the cross-sectional dimension is manufacturing industry sectors, and the time dimension is between 2003Q1 and 2012Q2. The estimation methodology is augmented mean group. In the regressions, the statistically significant variables affecting Turkey’s exports to various EU countries are Turkey’s industrial production index and sectoral export unit price index, partner country’s sectoral imports from the World, and partner country’s import prices. Seasonal dummies are added to account for seasonalities in the data, and a crises dummy is added to see the effects of recent crises. This study enables us to analyse Turkey’s exports to EU countries across time, sector, and country dimensions and make policy suggestions.
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Corruption is an important social and ethical problem. Determining root causes of it should be the first step to fight it. In this study, using a dynamic panel data approach, we try to determine the likely causes of level of corruption in... more
Corruption is an important social and ethical problem. Determining root causes of it should be the first step to fight it. In this study, using a dynamic panel data approach, we try to determine the likely causes of level of corruption in some of the former USSR countries and East Asian countries. Regression results show that, past values of corruption and the level of political rights in a country are the factors that are most affecting the level of corruption in a country. Degree of opennes to the foreign trade, interference of government in the economy, FDI inflows, degree of civil liberties seem not to have significant effect on corruption level in a country. Level of inflation, unemployment, per capita GDP seems not to be among the causes of corruption, but rather they are…
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Leading indicators are series that are examined to forecast fluctuations in a reference series. The series which are selected as the leading indicator of reference series are combined using weighted averages to form “composite leading... more
Leading indicators are series that are examined to forecast fluctuations in a reference series. The series which are selected as the leading indicator of reference series are combined using weighted averages to form “composite leading indicators”. In this study, we aim to form a “composite leading indicator” to forecast Turkey’s exports series. For this purpose candidate leading indicator series were seasonally adjusted by using “TRAMO/SEATS” and de-trended by using Hodrik-Prescott filter. Best performing series were selected by looking at noise/signal ratios, improvement ratios, leading and coincident correlations and Granger causality relationships. Afterwards, a weighted average of best performing series were taken and thus, “a compostie leading indicator for Turkey’s exports” was formed. The weights used are noise/signal ratio and improvement ratio. Calculated composite leading indicator improves the forecast of important declines in Turkey’s exports up to 68%.
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40 yılı aşan geçmişiyle Türkiye-AB ilişkileri, 3 Ekim 2005 tarihinde katılım müzakerelerinin başlamasıyla yeni ve önemli bir sürece girmiştir. Türkiye açısından zorlu geçmesi muhtemel olan bu süreçte; Türkiye'nin çabası, AB... more
40 yılı aşan geçmişiyle Türkiye-AB ilişkileri, 3 Ekim 2005 tarihinde katılım müzakerelerinin başlamasıyla yeni ve önemli bir sürece girmiştir. Türkiye açısından zorlu geçmesi muhtemel olan bu süreçte; Türkiye'nin çabası, AB entegrasyonunun gelecekte alacağı şekil, tarafların ...