Papers by Dr. Ahmad, Futurist.
ساختار حاکم بر جوامع بشری اعم از سازمانهای دولتی و شرکتهای خصوصی و نیز نظام حاکم بر یک اجتماع هما... more ساختار حاکم بر جوامع بشری اعم از سازمانهای دولتی و شرکتهای خصوصی و نیز نظام حاکم بر یک اجتماع همانند معابر و اماکن یک شهر حتی بهترین افراد را ناگزیر به تبعیت از مسیرهای تعیین شده می نماید، بنابراین اهمیت یک ساختار خوب بسیار بیشتر از پرسنل و حتی رهبران صالح خواهد بود. در قرن حاضر که تغییرات شدید محیطی ناشی از افزایش توانمندیهای علوم تجربی بشر همراه با فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات موجد نااطمینانی فزاینده از آینده است می طلبد تا سازمانهای چابک با درک سریع تحولات، پاسخی به موقع در درست اندازه نمودن منطقی ساختار برای تناسب با استراتژی و سایر عناصر اصلی سازمان مهیا نمایند. از اینرو در این پژوهش با مطالعه تحقیقات پیشین، شاخصهای ارزیابی و راهبردهای پیشنهادی بند ده سیاستهای کلی نظام اداری ابلاغی از سوی مقام معظم رهبری با ترسیم مدل مفهومی حاکم بر آن تدوین گردیده است که در نتیجه با معرفی ساختارهای اداری ادهوکراسی بر اساس گروههای توانمند و تمرکز در انجام وظایف حاکمیتی و برون سپاری تصدی گریها با تقویت سازمانهای دولتی مردم نهاد و بخش خصوصی می تواند الگویی برای بازمهندسی در تمامی بخشهای تشکیلات حکومت اسلامی بر پایه اصل ثابت رهبری امام معصوم و ولی فقیه منصوب عام الهی بر مبنای مردم سالاری دینی باشد.
Mahdeyan, Ahmad. Assessment indicators and strategies for Agility, Alignment and Right Sizing of the administrative structure of the country, Strategic vision, 1(4), pp. 150-187, winter 2013.
http://www.noormags.ir/view/fa/articlepage/1056972
Interdiciplinary Studies On Strategic Knowledge, 2016
The rapid environmental changes coupled with the impact on globalization leading to increasing co... more The rapid environmental changes coupled with the impact on globalization leading to increasing complexity in many developing strategic plans, especially on the new generation of interdisciplinary thinking called foresight or futures studies, whether about the organizations, the widespread social changes and new generation orientation in theology and value, put the world at a great historical screw. These trends pose a fundamental question, what is the problem of this complexity? It seams before understanding the philosophy of the time and the laws governing it, we've gone on to use of different sciences to build better futures. Thus without ontological understanding of future time and perception of how is the process of its formation, trying to build the future, would be unstable. So the main question of this research would be presented in this way that the ontological concept of time will enter what kind of changes on the form and content of future studies? When various aspects of the concept of time’s geometry reflect on multi-dimensional model of main features of futures studies, then the time assumed like the farm, which based on the power of current practices and vision orientation we can plant the past as a core capabilities in order to produce the future. At the end, with designing a two-sided questionnaire, how to assess the level of acceptance and awareness of the time assumptions of futures studies also have has been modeled.
http://www.magiran.com/magtoc.asp?mgID=5607&Number=23&Appendix=0&l=en
https://sndu.ac.ir/sites/default/files/docs/FMBRDS/FMBRDS-23.pdf
Conference on Improving Scenario Methodology: Theory and Practice, 2015
Environmental changes coupled with the impact on globalization leading to increasing complexity i... more Environmental changes coupled with the impact on globalization leading to increasing complexity in many developing strategies, especially on the foresight and futures studies. These trends pose a fundamental question, what is the chalenges of future’s complexity? It seems before understanding the origin of Future Scenario's idea and laws governing the Future Time, we've gone into the application of Scenarios to build better stories about future. In this paper we deeply investigated following issues in order to demonstrate the effects of the origin of idea's ontology on Future Scenarios; 1. Idea ontology, 2. The origin of creative thinking, 3. Idea nurturing in organizations, 4. Shaping the future time, 5. Scenario planning, 6. Ideas social network (global brain). This paper is a fundamental research type that makes theory for an applied science. In fact, we seek to bridge an ontology base with an applied knowledge. According to qualitative approach this study because of its data references to valid resources is valid and due to expert's continuous supervisions is reliable. Conceptual Model that have been emerged from this investigation, shows how we can improve scenario planning ability and what actually should be done to have good scenarios.
Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's Idea, International Conference on Multilateral Cooperation: Emerging Global Scenario, India, 22-24 February 2016. Already canceled in Scenario 2015, WBS. UK;
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/subjects/orms/ormsevents/scenario2015/programme/updated_11.12.pdf
When various aspects of geometry concept of the time reflect on the main features of multi-dimens... more When various aspects of geometry concept of the time reflect on the main features of multi-dimensional model of futures studies, then the time is assumed to be as a farm which we can plant capabilities of the past as a core on the basis of the power of the current practices and the direction of the outlook in order to produce the future for us. In this farm successive appearance and fall of the future and the past regularly occur in the spectrum of time and it reveals that the time is like a river of events going on. In the methodology we can reconstruct the process of the building of the future based on the knowledge management cycle through extracting hidden knowledge of experts throughout the history. Then, by socialization and internalization of this knowledge among stakeholders achieve a collective wisdom to build the future. The past role in building the future as the core indicate the need for in-depth review trough the causal layered analysis and on the other hand because of the role of time as priori part of perception it will be necessary to collapse paradigms in order to prevent any misunderstanding of facts. The outputs of the future studies more than ever should also emphasis on practices in the present because the future will be built based on our current activities. Many of human actions such as roads and building works over than one hundred years on the environment and is the origin of subsequentent changes, therefore, according to the eternal nature of the time, the time horizon of futures studies should be expanded with the phasy planning eternity based on the existence kind of the time that involves a sequential chain of events.
In the end, considering the existing positivistic paradigm, the reflecting theoretical model of ontological concept of the time on the futures studies could be made quantity with designing a two-sided questionnaire in terms of acceptance and understanding of the assumptions of futures studies and mathematically assesst in a separate study.
Ontological analysis of the time concept and designing a theoretical model of its reflection on Futures Studies, Interdiciplinary Studies On Strategic Knowledge, No.23, pp. 31-52, Summer, 2016.
http://www.magiran.com/magtoc.asp?mgID=5607&Number=23&Appendix=0&l=en
https://sndu.ac.ir/sites/default/files/docs/FMBRDS/FMBRDS-23.pdf
By analyzing the ontological concept of time among the propositions of the ancient, Islamic and W... more By analyzing the ontological concept of time among the propositions of the ancient, Islamic and Western philosophers alongside modern physics and psychology, when we put together some of these apparently opposed theories in the correct order as the geometry concept of the time, we get this perception that; Move just indicates a symptom of time stretch between phenomena. Time is constant in terms of creation and relative from the perspective of phenomena, unchanged nature of time based on the philosophy of history indicates no accident of phenomena so the world would have a distinct vision. Differences in how feeling of the time between humans and animals and the tendency of mankind efforts to the future time and the time oriented perception structure of the brain as a priori component in understanding the facts emphasize that a knowledge of time will rise the power of future construction.
On the other side, analysis of futures studies puts in front of us an multi-dimensional model of the main characteristics of this field of knowledge including assumptions look to the future, futurist characteristics, objectives, methodology, time horizon and outputs.
Ontological analysis of the time concept and designing a theoretical model of its reflection on Futures Studies, Interdiciplinary Studies On Strategic Knowledge, No.23, pp. 31-52, Summer, 2016.
http://www.magiran.com/magtoc.asp?mgID=5607&Number=23&Appendix=0&l=en
https://sndu.ac.ir/sites/default/files/docs/FMBRDS/FMBRDS-23.pdf
The rapid changes especially in the field of information and communication technology coupled wit... more The rapid changes especially in the field of information and communication technology coupled with its impact on globalization leads to increasing complexity in the development of many strategic plans particularly in the case of new generation of interdisciplinary thinking that is called foresight or futures studies and related projects either at the organizations level, the widespread social changes and new generation orientation towards in theological and values put the world on a great historical twist. These trends pose a fundamental question, what is the problem of this complexity? It seems before understanding of time’s philosophy and the laws governing it we've gone on to use different sciences to build a better future. Therefore without ontological understanding of the future time and perception of how is its formation process, trying to build the future, would be unstable. This indicates the ambiguity of the concept of the future time. Thus we must understand that what is the future time? Does the past still exist? Is there the future already and waiting to meet us? Or the future is a Utopia? Are multiple futures can be achieved? Whether we can form our desired future? If so, how?
The main question of this research would be presented in this way that the ontological concept of the time will enter what kind of changes on the form and content of future studies? In the other words, we are looking for a bridge to an practical knowledge from an ontological foundation and want to verify that our understanding of time and especially future time will have what effect on the futures studies? To answer these questions, the following sub-research purposes will be considered as two basic steps;
Ontological analysis of time concept from the perspective of philosophical studies, experimental (physics) and Islamic doctrines in order to present the ontological concept of the time.
Analysis of the main characteristics of futures studies in recent years.
Type of research is fundamental, and regard to the purpose is exploratory and it’s in the field of secondary studies of science. Research methodology is combined and with a dominant philosophical and logical analysis makes conclusions. Based on qualitative approach this study, due to data forwarding (philosophical ideas, experimental and Islamic views) to valid documents, has high indexes of integrity, credibility and defensible so as a result its validity would be justified. Although there cannot be validity without reliability, in additional the research audit can be suggested as a good way to improve the reliability, therefore for the continuous utilization of the ideas of the respected professors in all stages in the process of this research, as well as expectations for reliability of this study by assurance estimated.
Ontological analysis of the time concept and designing a theoretical model of its reflection on Futures Studies, Interdiciplinary Studies On Strategic Knowledge, No.23, pp. 31-52, Summer, 2016.
http://www.magiran.com/magtoc.asp?mgID=5607&Number=23&Appendix=0&l=en
https://sndu.ac.ir/sites/default/files/docs/FMBRDS/FMBRDS-23.pdf
Environmental changes coupled with the impact on globalization leading to increasing complexity i... more Environmental changes coupled with the impact on globalization leading to increasing complexity in many developing strategies, especially on the foresight and futures studies. These trends pose a fundamental question, what is the chalenges of future’s complexity? It seems before understanding the origin of Future Scenario's idea and laws governing the Future Time, we've gone into the application of Scenarios to build better stories about future.
In this paper we deeply investigated following issues in order to demonstrate the effects of the origin of idea's ontology on Future Scenarios;
1. Idea ontology,
2. The origin of creative thinking,
3. Idea nurturing in organizations,
4. Shaping the future time,
5. Scenario planning,
6. Ideas social network (global brain).
This paper is a fundamental research type that makes theory for an applied science. In fact, we seek to bridge an ontology base with an applied knowledge. According to qualitative approach this study because of its data references to valid resources is valid and due to expert's continuous supervisions is reliable.
Conceptual Model that have been emerged from this investigation, shows how we can improve scenario planning ability and what actually should be done to have good scenarios.
Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's Idea, International Conference on Multilateral Cooperation: Emerging Global Scenario, India, 22-24 February 2016. Already canceled in Scenario 2015, WBS. UK ;
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/subjects/orms/ormsevents/scenario2015/programme/updated_11.12.pdf
Developing the conceptual model of the origin of the idea of future scenarios leads to explore Co... more Developing the conceptual model of the origin of the idea of future scenarios leads to explore Cognitive Sciences (CS) strategies for Futures Studies (FS). This research will try to answer how scenario planning would benefit from CS by reshaping mental models? In other hand, how these explored strategies could develop the future oriented intelligence's machine? This is a vast amount of work to be considered. Modeling via abduction, chance-seeking via intervention on tacit knowledge, Acquiring useful information via causality grouping, Intelligence increase over time and idea blending are just the first examples, so we have a long way to go.
Accepted to be presented by KogWis 2016: Doctoral Symposium, Bremen Spatial Cognition Research Centre, Universität Bremen, 26-30 Sep 2016.
https://mindmodeling.org/cogsci2016/papers/0704/paper0704.pdf
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Papers by Dr. Ahmad, Futurist.
Mahdeyan, Ahmad. Assessment indicators and strategies for Agility, Alignment and Right Sizing of the administrative structure of the country, Strategic vision, 1(4), pp. 150-187, winter 2013.
http://www.noormags.ir/view/fa/articlepage/1056972
http://www.magiran.com/magtoc.asp?mgID=5607&Number=23&Appendix=0&l=en
https://sndu.ac.ir/sites/default/files/docs/FMBRDS/FMBRDS-23.pdf
Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's Idea, International Conference on Multilateral Cooperation: Emerging Global Scenario, India, 22-24 February 2016. Already canceled in Scenario 2015, WBS. UK;
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/subjects/orms/ormsevents/scenario2015/programme/updated_11.12.pdf
In the end, considering the existing positivistic paradigm, the reflecting theoretical model of ontological concept of the time on the futures studies could be made quantity with designing a two-sided questionnaire in terms of acceptance and understanding of the assumptions of futures studies and mathematically assesst in a separate study.
Ontological analysis of the time concept and designing a theoretical model of its reflection on Futures Studies, Interdiciplinary Studies On Strategic Knowledge, No.23, pp. 31-52, Summer, 2016.
http://www.magiran.com/magtoc.asp?mgID=5607&Number=23&Appendix=0&l=en
https://sndu.ac.ir/sites/default/files/docs/FMBRDS/FMBRDS-23.pdf
On the other side, analysis of futures studies puts in front of us an multi-dimensional model of the main characteristics of this field of knowledge including assumptions look to the future, futurist characteristics, objectives, methodology, time horizon and outputs.
Ontological analysis of the time concept and designing a theoretical model of its reflection on Futures Studies, Interdiciplinary Studies On Strategic Knowledge, No.23, pp. 31-52, Summer, 2016.
http://www.magiran.com/magtoc.asp?mgID=5607&Number=23&Appendix=0&l=en
https://sndu.ac.ir/sites/default/files/docs/FMBRDS/FMBRDS-23.pdf
The main question of this research would be presented in this way that the ontological concept of the time will enter what kind of changes on the form and content of future studies? In the other words, we are looking for a bridge to an practical knowledge from an ontological foundation and want to verify that our understanding of time and especially future time will have what effect on the futures studies? To answer these questions, the following sub-research purposes will be considered as two basic steps;
Ontological analysis of time concept from the perspective of philosophical studies, experimental (physics) and Islamic doctrines in order to present the ontological concept of the time.
Analysis of the main characteristics of futures studies in recent years.
Type of research is fundamental, and regard to the purpose is exploratory and it’s in the field of secondary studies of science. Research methodology is combined and with a dominant philosophical and logical analysis makes conclusions. Based on qualitative approach this study, due to data forwarding (philosophical ideas, experimental and Islamic views) to valid documents, has high indexes of integrity, credibility and defensible so as a result its validity would be justified. Although there cannot be validity without reliability, in additional the research audit can be suggested as a good way to improve the reliability, therefore for the continuous utilization of the ideas of the respected professors in all stages in the process of this research, as well as expectations for reliability of this study by assurance estimated.
Ontological analysis of the time concept and designing a theoretical model of its reflection on Futures Studies, Interdiciplinary Studies On Strategic Knowledge, No.23, pp. 31-52, Summer, 2016.
http://www.magiran.com/magtoc.asp?mgID=5607&Number=23&Appendix=0&l=en
https://sndu.ac.ir/sites/default/files/docs/FMBRDS/FMBRDS-23.pdf
In this paper we deeply investigated following issues in order to demonstrate the effects of the origin of idea's ontology on Future Scenarios;
1. Idea ontology,
2. The origin of creative thinking,
3. Idea nurturing in organizations,
4. Shaping the future time,
5. Scenario planning,
6. Ideas social network (global brain).
This paper is a fundamental research type that makes theory for an applied science. In fact, we seek to bridge an ontology base with an applied knowledge. According to qualitative approach this study because of its data references to valid resources is valid and due to expert's continuous supervisions is reliable.
Conceptual Model that have been emerged from this investigation, shows how we can improve scenario planning ability and what actually should be done to have good scenarios.
Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's Idea, International Conference on Multilateral Cooperation: Emerging Global Scenario, India, 22-24 February 2016. Already canceled in Scenario 2015, WBS. UK ;
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/subjects/orms/ormsevents/scenario2015/programme/updated_11.12.pdf
Accepted to be presented by KogWis 2016: Doctoral Symposium, Bremen Spatial Cognition Research Centre, Universität Bremen, 26-30 Sep 2016.
https://mindmodeling.org/cogsci2016/papers/0704/paper0704.pdf
Mahdeyan, Ahmad. Assessment indicators and strategies for Agility, Alignment and Right Sizing of the administrative structure of the country, Strategic vision, 1(4), pp. 150-187, winter 2013.
http://www.noormags.ir/view/fa/articlepage/1056972
http://www.magiran.com/magtoc.asp?mgID=5607&Number=23&Appendix=0&l=en
https://sndu.ac.ir/sites/default/files/docs/FMBRDS/FMBRDS-23.pdf
Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's Idea, International Conference on Multilateral Cooperation: Emerging Global Scenario, India, 22-24 February 2016. Already canceled in Scenario 2015, WBS. UK;
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/subjects/orms/ormsevents/scenario2015/programme/updated_11.12.pdf
In the end, considering the existing positivistic paradigm, the reflecting theoretical model of ontological concept of the time on the futures studies could be made quantity with designing a two-sided questionnaire in terms of acceptance and understanding of the assumptions of futures studies and mathematically assesst in a separate study.
Ontological analysis of the time concept and designing a theoretical model of its reflection on Futures Studies, Interdiciplinary Studies On Strategic Knowledge, No.23, pp. 31-52, Summer, 2016.
http://www.magiran.com/magtoc.asp?mgID=5607&Number=23&Appendix=0&l=en
https://sndu.ac.ir/sites/default/files/docs/FMBRDS/FMBRDS-23.pdf
On the other side, analysis of futures studies puts in front of us an multi-dimensional model of the main characteristics of this field of knowledge including assumptions look to the future, futurist characteristics, objectives, methodology, time horizon and outputs.
Ontological analysis of the time concept and designing a theoretical model of its reflection on Futures Studies, Interdiciplinary Studies On Strategic Knowledge, No.23, pp. 31-52, Summer, 2016.
http://www.magiran.com/magtoc.asp?mgID=5607&Number=23&Appendix=0&l=en
https://sndu.ac.ir/sites/default/files/docs/FMBRDS/FMBRDS-23.pdf
The main question of this research would be presented in this way that the ontological concept of the time will enter what kind of changes on the form and content of future studies? In the other words, we are looking for a bridge to an practical knowledge from an ontological foundation and want to verify that our understanding of time and especially future time will have what effect on the futures studies? To answer these questions, the following sub-research purposes will be considered as two basic steps;
Ontological analysis of time concept from the perspective of philosophical studies, experimental (physics) and Islamic doctrines in order to present the ontological concept of the time.
Analysis of the main characteristics of futures studies in recent years.
Type of research is fundamental, and regard to the purpose is exploratory and it’s in the field of secondary studies of science. Research methodology is combined and with a dominant philosophical and logical analysis makes conclusions. Based on qualitative approach this study, due to data forwarding (philosophical ideas, experimental and Islamic views) to valid documents, has high indexes of integrity, credibility and defensible so as a result its validity would be justified. Although there cannot be validity without reliability, in additional the research audit can be suggested as a good way to improve the reliability, therefore for the continuous utilization of the ideas of the respected professors in all stages in the process of this research, as well as expectations for reliability of this study by assurance estimated.
Ontological analysis of the time concept and designing a theoretical model of its reflection on Futures Studies, Interdiciplinary Studies On Strategic Knowledge, No.23, pp. 31-52, Summer, 2016.
http://www.magiran.com/magtoc.asp?mgID=5607&Number=23&Appendix=0&l=en
https://sndu.ac.ir/sites/default/files/docs/FMBRDS/FMBRDS-23.pdf
In this paper we deeply investigated following issues in order to demonstrate the effects of the origin of idea's ontology on Future Scenarios;
1. Idea ontology,
2. The origin of creative thinking,
3. Idea nurturing in organizations,
4. Shaping the future time,
5. Scenario planning,
6. Ideas social network (global brain).
This paper is a fundamental research type that makes theory for an applied science. In fact, we seek to bridge an ontology base with an applied knowledge. According to qualitative approach this study because of its data references to valid resources is valid and due to expert's continuous supervisions is reliable.
Conceptual Model that have been emerged from this investigation, shows how we can improve scenario planning ability and what actually should be done to have good scenarios.
Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's Idea, International Conference on Multilateral Cooperation: Emerging Global Scenario, India, 22-24 February 2016. Already canceled in Scenario 2015, WBS. UK ;
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/subjects/orms/ormsevents/scenario2015/programme/updated_11.12.pdf
Accepted to be presented by KogWis 2016: Doctoral Symposium, Bremen Spatial Cognition Research Centre, Universität Bremen, 26-30 Sep 2016.
https://mindmodeling.org/cogsci2016/papers/0704/paper0704.pdf