Papers by Cristina Vinyes
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Nov 1, 2014
It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policy-making process. The s... more It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policy-making process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication.
EcoMod2012, 2012
This research aims analyzes the economic structure of the EU-27 economy by 2000, using the Agricu... more This research aims analyzes the economic structure of the EU-27 economy by 2000, using the Agricultural Social Accounting Matrices (Agrosams) developed by JRC-ITPS (EC) which are disaggregated agricultural sector of these countries and for that particular yearWe will use the software SIMIPSAM created by World Bank to analyze the key sector of the economies, calculate accounting decomposition of multipliers in their three effects (direct, indirect and induced) and finally obtain the employment multipliers of the EU-27, in order to know which ones is more important in terms of keysectorsWe divide the EU27 Agrosams in some clusters –answering to the GDP per capita in relative terms- trying to indentify the agriculture accounts in terms of Keysectors in each cluster.
Croatia joined the European Union (EU) on July 1st, 2013. This paper assesses the likely effects ... more Croatia joined the European Union (EU) on July 1st, 2013. This paper assesses the likely effects of this accession on the agricultural and food sectors, and analyses the impact on the EU, Croatia and their main trading partners. It considers both the harmonization of Croatia's trade instruments with those applied in the EU, and the adoption of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The analysis is carried out using MAGNET, a global recursive dynamic CGE model. Results show that Croatia slightly benefits from its accession to the EU with an increase in GDP, whereas the impact on the EU-27's GDP is insignificant. Total exports of Croatian agricultural products increase by 7.4% and those of food products decrease by 2%. Croatia will face some changes in its production structure. At constant prices, agricultural production benefits (increasing by 1.1%), whereas food production contracts (decreasing by 5.5%). This result sheds some light on competitiveness limitations of the Croatian food processing industry. The scope of this paper is to model both European trade and
Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Mar 15, 2014
The concept of 'bioeconomy' is receiving increased attention in policy and business circles. The ... more The concept of 'bioeconomy' is receiving increased attention in policy and business circles. The European Commission (EC) has initiated the Bioeconomy Strategy which is a signal of intent that the EU seeks to meet the challenge of reconciling responsible-resource usage respecting sustainability criteria, with wealth-generation. To this aim, the EC's Joint Research Centre (JRC) has been entrusted to implement a Bioeconomy Information Systems Observatory within which the objective is to develop an ongoing coherent picture of the activities of this sector, whilst developing forward-looking tools of analysis to help respond to the aforementioned challenge. This paper provides a discussion on the research activities which are currently under development at the JRC. Whilst the scale of ambition of the Bioeconomy Observatory is significant, it is recognised that much of the research conducted so-far remains workin-progress and is therefore only a starting point to fully capturing the nuances of this diverse and complex sector.
In 2012, the European Commission (EC) launched the Bioeconomy Strategy and Action Plan with the o... more In 2012, the European Commission (EC) launched the Bioeconomy Strategy and Action Plan with the objective of establishing a resource efficient and competitive society that reconciles food security with the sustainable use of renewable resources. This report contributes to the plan by evaluating the macroeconomic impacts of bio-based applications in the EU. Such effects can only be evaluated with a computable general equilibrium model such as MAGNET. Four bio-based applications are considered, namely biofuel (second generation), biochemicals, bioelectricity, and biogas (synthetic natural gas). This is done assuming that 1 EJ lignocellulose biomass is converted into fuel, chemicals, electricity and gas and that the final product replaces an equal amount of conventional (e.g. fossil energy) product (on energy basis). The results show that given the assumed efficiency of conversion technology, costs of conversion, biomass price and oil price, the production of second generation biofuel ...
Croatia joined the European Union (EU) on July 1st, 2013. This paper assesses the likely effects ... more Croatia joined the European Union (EU) on July 1st, 2013. This paper assesses the likely effects of this accession on the agricultural and food sectors, and analyses the impact on the EU, Croatia and their main trading partners. It considers both the harmonization of Croatia's trade instruments with those applied in the EU, and the adoption of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The analysis is carried out using MAGNET, a global recursive dynamic CGE model. Results show that Croatia slightly benefits from its accession to the EU with an increase in GDP, whereas the impact on the EU-27's GDP is insignificant. Total exports of Croatian agricultural products increase by 7.4% and those of food products decrease by 2%. Croatia will face some changes in its production structure. At constant prices, agricultural production benefits (increasing by 1.1%), whereas food production contracts (decreasing by 5.5%). This result sheds some light on competitiveness limitations of the Croat...
Effects of economy-wide factors on Brazilian economic growth and biofuels production: an inter-te... more Effects of economy-wide factors on Brazilian economic growth and biofuels production: an inter-temporal general equilibrium analysis
Africa, more specifically Sub Saharan Africa (SSA), largely missed out on the green revolution an... more Africa, more specifically Sub Saharan Africa (SSA), largely missed out on the green revolution and hence is considered that the continent is long overdue for an agricultural boon like that lifted other regions such as Asia. Given this background, in this paper a global CGE Model is used to analyze the economy-wide effects of a potential ‘green revolution’ in SSA. Following many studies in the literature a potential green revolution is modelled as an increase in TFP, on the other hand, the uniqueness of this study is the introduction of the observed and desired yield changes (following past observed green revolutions such as in Asia) and let the model determine the required TFP change to attain these yield levels. Further, a stochastic yield change is introduced as a shock to the CGE model by using a Gaussian Quadrature approach. This way, instead of presenting only one point for a probable green revolution one can analyse the effects of a green revolution under a full spectrum of po...
This research aims analyzes the economic structure of the EU-27 economy by 2000, using the Agricu... more This research aims analyzes the economic structure of the EU-27 economy by 2000, using the Agricultural Social Accounting Matrices (Agrosams) developed by JRC-ITPS (EC) which are disaggregated agricultural sector of these countries and for that particular yearWe will use the software SIMIPSAM created by World Bank to analyze the key sector of the economies, calculate accounting decomposition of multipliers in their three effects (direct, indirect and induced) and finally obtain the employment multipliers of the EU-27, in order to know which ones is more important in terms of keysectorsWe divide the EU27 Agrosams in some clusters –answering to the GDP per capita in relative terms- trying to indentify the agriculture accounts in terms of Keysectors in each cluster.
Approximately 90% of the worlds commercially produced energy is obtained from non-renewable fossi... more Approximately 90% of the worlds commercially produced energy is obtained from non-renewable fossil fuels such as crude oil, coal, and gas (Birur et al. 2008). In order to enhance energy security and independence, many countries, such as Brazil, have supported the production and use of renewable energy sources such as biofuels. According to Martines-Filho et al. 2006, Brazil is the only country in the world able to produce ethanol from sugarcane at sufficiently low costs to be competitive. As ethanol in Brazil is made from sugarcane, sugar industry developments are now increasingly linked to policy initiatives in ethanol markets. Sugar represents a particularly important component of Brazils economy, with the sugar/ethanol industry contributing 2% to national gross domestic product (Valdes, C. 2007) which places Brazil as the worlds largest exporter of sugar and ethanol (ANFAVEA, 2006). A complex linkage between the production of sugarcane, sugar and ethanol has evolved as per capita...
The concept of ‘bioeconomy’ is receiving increased attention in policy and business circles. ... more The concept of ‘bioeconomy’ is receiving increased attention in policy and business circles. The European Commission (EC) has initiated the Bioeconomy Strategy which is a signal of intent that the EU seeks to meet the challenge of reconciling responsible-resource usage respecting sustainability criteria, with wealth-generation. To this aim, the EC’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) has been entrusted to implement a Bioeconomy Information Systems Observatory within which the objective is to develop an ongoing coherent picture of the activities of this sector, whilst developing forward- looking tools of analysis to help respond to the aforementioned challenge. This paper provides a discussion on the research activities which are currently under development at the JRC. Whilst the scale of ambition of the Bioeconomy Observatory is significant, it is recognised that much of the research conducted so-far remains workin- progress and is therefore only a starting point to fully capturing t...
European agricultural market support and direct payments amount to 44 billion Euros in 2012 – of ... more European agricultural market support and direct payments amount to 44 billion Euros in 2012 – of which farm subsidies represent 40 billion euros. Rural development measures add 13 billion Euros to the European Union (EU) budget devoted to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). As a total, roughly 40 per cent of the EU budget aims at funding this sector-based policy. Whereas a CAP reform is expected for the period post-2013, an agreement on the 2014-2020 EU financial framework shall be reached before then. This paper attempts to capture the implications for the EU and third countries of resource reallocations in the CAP budget provision for the period 2014-2020. It employs a sophisticated dynamic variant of the GTAP model, known as the Modular Applied General Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET) model. Given the focus on agri-food markets, a number of additional modelling features are incorporated to capture the peculiarities of agricultural factor markets (e.g. endogenous land supply, heterogen...
The authors are indebted to Arnaldo Caivano for technical assistance on providing data, Sophie Hé... more The authors are indebted to Arnaldo Caivano for technical assistance on providing data, Sophie Hélaine and Robert M'barek for helpful suggestions. Any errors remain the responsibility of the authors.
Post-Communist Economies, 2015
ABSTRACT Over the last 25 years Croatia's transition from a war-torn region of the former... more ABSTRACT Over the last 25 years Croatia's transition from a war-torn region of the former Yugoslavia to a fully independent nation has left a lasting mark. In 2013 Croatia took another step toward peace and stability by becoming the 28th member of the European Union (EU). Employing a quantitative framework to examine the economic impact of Croatian accession, results show that agricultural transfer payments are a key component of the accession deal, whilst a ‘deep integration’ scenario yields significant Croatian real income gains. Finally, comparing EU market access via tariff and non-tariff shocks, in Croatian agro-food sectors the former has a greater impact on output.
Disenchantment with the Washington Consensus has led to an emphasis on growth diagnostics. In the... more Disenchantment with the Washington Consensus has led to an emphasis on growth diagnostics. In the case of Brazil, the literature suggests three main factors impeding growth: low domestic savings, a shortage of skilled workers, and a lack of investment in the country's transportation infrastructure. The unique contribution of this study is to show the inter-temporal implications of relaxing these constraints. We …t a multi-sector Ramsey model to Brazilian data, validate its …t to times data, and provide empirical insights into the economy's structural transformation to long-run equilibrium. Then, the sensitivity of these results to relaxing each of these three constraints is investigated in a manner that yields the same long-run level of wellbeing. Analytical concepts adapted from static trade theory are used to provide a detailed explanation of how the economy responds in transition growth to the relaxation of these impediments. Addressing these factors clearly bene…ts the economy, but they do not launch the economy to a substantially higher growth path. In order to enhance energy security and independence, Brazil has supported the production and use of ethanol. Brazil's leadership in this market reveals complex inter-linkages between ethanol, sugarcane, sugar and fossil fuels. These sectors have been growing an average of 14% per year, while the country's growth rates have been very modest. This paper presents a theoretical framework for understanding the interaction between Brazil's economic growth and the evolution of these sectors as the economy transitions toward longrun equilibrium. Then, the sensitivity of these results is analyzed under two simulations; … rst, a reduction of the cost of …nancial intermediation (which the literature identi…es as one of the factors a¤ecting Brazil's growth), and second, an increase in ethanol prices by 2.6%, based on the expectation that biofuels'world demand is increasing.
Croatia joined the European Union (EU) on July 1st, 2013. This paper assesses the likely effects ... more Croatia joined the European Union (EU) on July 1st, 2013. This paper assesses the likely effects of this accession on the agricultural and food sectors, and analyses the impact on the EU, Croatia and their main trading partners. It considers both the harmonization of Croatia's trade instruments with those applied in the EU, and the adoption of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The analysis is carried out using MAGNET, a global recursive dynamic CGE model. Results show that Croatia slightly benefits from its accession to the EU with an increase in GDP, whereas the impact on the EU-27's GDP is insignificant. Total exports of Croatian agricultural products increase by 7.4% and those of food products decrease by 2%. Croatia will face some changes in its production structure. At constant prices, agricultural production benefits (increasing by 1.1%), whereas food production contracts (decreasing by 5.5%). This result sheds some light on competitiveness limitations of the Croatian food processing industry. The scope of this paper is to model both European trade and Pierre Boulanger, Emanuele Ferrari, Jerzy Michalek, George Philippidis, Cristina Vinyes 70 agricultural policies. It is worth mentioning that other EU policies such as the structural or cohesion policies, and additional gains resulting from the accession such as a less risky investment environment or a more efficient regulatory framework, are not modelled. 1
The concept of 'bioeconomy' is receiving increased attention in policy and business circles. The ... more The concept of 'bioeconomy' is receiving increased attention in policy and business circles. The European Commission (EC) has initiated the Bioeconomy Strategy which is a signal of intent that the EU seeks to meet the challenge of reconciling responsible-resource usage respecting sustainability criteria, with wealth-generation. To this aim, the EC's Joint Research Centre (JRC) has been entrusted to implement a Bioeconomy Information Systems Observatory within which the objective is to develop an ongoing coherent picture of the activities of this sector, whilst developing forward-looking tools of analysis to help respond to the aforementioned challenge. This paper provides a discussion on the research activities which are currently under development at the JRC. Whilst the scale of ambition of the Bioeconomy Observatory is significant, it is recognised that much of the research conducted so-far remains workin-progress and is therefore only a starting point to fully capturing the nuances of this diverse and complex sector.
Disenchantment with the Washington Consensus has led to an emphasis on growth diagnostics. In the... more Disenchantment with the Washington Consensus has led to an emphasis on growth diagnostics. In the case of Brazil, the literature suggests three main factors impeding growth: low domestic savings, a shortage of skilled workers, and lack of investment in the country’s transportation infrastructure. The unique contribution of this study is to show the inter-temporal implications of relaxing these constraints. We
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Papers by Cristina Vinyes