Clive Coetzee

Abstract This article studies the economic application of the remote sensing of night-time light emissions using satellite technologies within the South African context, focusing on its nine provinces as the unit of investigation. Observing human activity from outer space using satellite technology and remote sensing focusing on man-made light emissions presents real opportunity, especially where reliable national statistics are lacking. The methodology involves the estimation of panel data, autoregressive distributed lag and co-integration models that estimate provincial night-time light intensity as a proxy for provincial gross regional product (GDP). Both the ARDL and co-integrating models point to a long-run co-integrating relationship between GDP and night-time total light intensity, while the panel models suggest that the inverse Henderson elasticity for all provinces is 0.277 (cross-section fixed model). The ARDL models also establish a statistically significant short-term error correction term. The combined results suggest that a statistically significant long- and short-term relationship does indeed exist between provincial GDP and night-time lights within the South African and provincial context.

This article investigates the degree of spatial dependence of unemployment on neighbouring economies with possible implications for cross-border community development initiatives. The local municipalities within the KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa are used as a case study. Spatial econometric techniques are employed that incorporate dependence between regions in close geographical proximity. Disaggregated data and knowledge about the dynamics at a sub-regional level are usually unavailable for designing employment policies, especially for regional economies in under-developed countries. The results suggest an absence of spatial unemployment clustering and autocorrelation between neighbouring economies. The absence of externalities implies that little mutual dependence exists between adjacent economies, and therefore municipal unemployment patterns can be viewed as spatially random. The economy of a region is therefore fundamentally heterogeneous in that its unemployment rates...

The absence of high-frequency time series data is a real constraint for many researchers worldwide. Generating high-frequency economic data, especially at the sub-national level, generates significant advantages and opportunities. Research otherwise impossible now becomes possible and indeed desirable. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the usefulness of several temporal disaggregation methods and the reliability of the derived results. Temporal disaggregation is one such method that can be used to generate high-frequency time series data from low-frequency time series data. The methods employed will specifically refer to methods that use related series as the high-frequency time series data related to the South African economy. To this effect, monthly night-time lights sensed by satellite were assessed. The results derived through the study seem to generate robust estimates suggesting that it is indeed possible to use night-time lights as a related indicator and the various temporal disaggregation methods contained within the Ecotrim computer software program and ‘tempdisagg’ R package to disaggregate annual national and provincial gross domestic product (GDP). The derived quarterly and monthly national and provincial GDP time series/data will subsequently assist in addressing the constraints researchers face, especially at a sub-national level. From a policy perspective, policymakers should note that remote sensing technologies offer unique opportunities to conduct sub-national economic policy and research.

This article investigates the possible permanent vegetation cover (VC) change over an extended time for five municipal regions in South Africa by applying satellite-acquired remote sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values within a geographic information system (GIS), spatial (West Coast District) and time (1981 to 2019 and 2000 to 2020) context. The NDVI index measures surface reflectance and give a quantitative estimation of vegetation growth and biomass. The study found relevance in its application since VC change detection has taken prominence over the past number of years in terms of sustainable development. Methods of analysis include image mapping, temporal image differencing, Moran I statistic, and the Mann-Kendall trend test. In the main areas that recorded significant changes in their NDVI values (plus or minus 0.4 difference on their original NDVI value) over time, in general, have experienced substantial and permanent VC change. These areas are also spa...

This study investigates the extent to which urban diversity and/or dispersion affect business sentiment and confidence. A multi-year multiregion- based business confidence survey of KwaZulu-Natal was annually conducted by the authors. The average responses to the questions designed to measure business sentiment and confidence at a particular urban centre are very similar over the period, irrespective of the urban centre. Some minor differences do, however exist, suggesting that spatial diversity and/or dispersion do matter marginally at urban level, and urban differences should also be considered by businesses and manufacturing when planning for the future.

Official sub-national GDP figures in South Africa are usually published with long delays or not at all, i.e. relevant, reliable, and real-time economic data on a provincial and local (municipal) level are often non-existent, causing a significant data asymmetry at the sub-national level. The search for an ‘optimal’ sub-national proxy for regional economic growth focuses on the possible use of regional business confidence. This article, therefore, investigates the use of regional business confidence indices (RBCI) as an early indicator or proxy of the regional economic growth rate (RGDP). To this end, the study employed panel cointegration methodology and techniques to interrogate the possible association between regional business confidence and regional economic growth, focusing on three specific regions of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The results suggest that the utilisation of regional business confidence indicators indeed has merit. Constraints experienced in the study indicate t...

South Africa mostly depended on foreign suppliers for its defence needs up to the beginning of the 1960's. This situation changed dramatically with the implementation of various isolation measures and an international arms embargo in the early 1960's. This compulsory arms embargo on the import and export of armaments to and from South Africa compelled the South African government to become self-sufficient in terms of its defence needs, thus directly contributing to the inception of Amscor and later Denel (Coetzee, 97: 22). Denel, one can argue, would not be in existence today if it were not for the international arms embargo and the subsequent drive for self-sufficiency. Denel (Pty) Ltd was established as a private company, incorporated in terms of the Companies Act on 1 April 1992 with the State as the sole shareholder. The Company is managed by a Board of Directors, appointed by the Minister for Public Enterprises and is an autonomous group (Denel, http://www.denel.co.za/ ...

This article looks at the concept of local economic assessment within the context of Local Economic Development (LED) in South Africa. According to the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, local government institutions or municipalities are responsible for the facilitation and implementation of LED. This assumes that these institutions have the required and necessary capacity, resources and passion to do so. To a significant degree the effectiveness of the LED strategy, and therefore the magnitude and reach of the impact of LED, is based on the effective and efficient assessment of the local economy. Identifying the relevant data and data resources is therefore key to managing an effective and efficient local economy assessment process. This article identifies the data needed in the local economy assessment process and conceptualises some of the major possible data resources available.

Pietermaritzburg and the uMgungundlovu District have achieved remarkable growth in economic activity during 2003 and 2004. Business confidence is also very favorable at present. What is particularly encouraging is that the benefits of the performance of the local economy have not only accrued to a select few, but that more and more people are experiencing the benefits. One must, however, recognise that there is still a large number of people that have not experienced these benefits, but the longer the local economy can sustain the past performance the higher the possibility that even more people will experience these benefits in the future.

Extensive research on the linkages between monetary conditions and stock returns has been conducted in developed countries. This is in sharp contrast to the situation in developing countries. This paper therefore aims to study the long believed asymmetrical relationship between changes in monetary conditions and subsequent changes in stock returns in South Africa. Research in the United States of America (US) indicates that US stock returns are significantly related to the US monetary environment. The findings and results show that expansive (restrictive) monetary conditions serves as good (bad) news for stock returns, i.e. cuts in interest rates are followed by periods of excess stock returns, while increases in interest rates have a restrictive effect. The results of this study (for South Africa over the period 1991-2001) are in line with international findings, but are, in terms of South Africa, in contradiction with the findings of a previous study. This previous study on the re...

Orientation: Some recent studies have been published that demonstrated the value of remote sensing night-time lights as descriptors and/or proxies for human activity. Research purpose: This article investigated the association between night-time light emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for South Africa. Motivation for the study: Satellite night-lights data seemed to be a useful proxy for economic activity at temporal and geographic scales for which traditional data are of poor quality, are unavailable or only available with a large time lag. Research approach/design and method: The article primarily used the remote sensing of night-time light emissions using satellite technologies. The methodology employed in this study involved estimating both a vector error correction modelling (VECM) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models that map light growth into a proxy for GDP growth. Main findings: Both the VECM and ARDL models confirmed a long-term co-integrating...

This article investigates the industrial success of various cities in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. It assesses the hypothesis that knowledge spillovers are supportive of industrial growth at the city level. Theories of economic city growth suggest that cities are engines of knowledge spillovers, which are essential to generate growth. This study utilised data on the growth of industries in cities in KwaZulu-Natal between 1996 and 2015. The study initially found that industries develop better in environments characterised by less concentration and more city diversity, which gave evidence of Jacobs’ externalities. However, after controlling for industry-specific and city-specific characteristics, the results changed significantly. No evidence was found for concentration effects (Marshall/Arrow/Romer-externalities) and less diversity supports city-industry growth (evidence against Jacobs’ externalities).

Most South African municipalities experience significant financial problems. This study investigates the financial conditions of municipalities in the province of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). It was found that the most important factors which influence their financial position are unobservable municipally unique factors. The ratio of people of non-working age to the total population is also significant in influencing the financial position of municipalities. This article designed a unique financial conditions measurement framework to evaluate the financial status of local governments. Two independent instruments were developed, first to measure the financial quality of a municipality, and secondly, to identify and examine a number of socio-economic factors possibly affecting the financial condition of these municipalities. The study developed a composite financial condition index (CFCI) and a financial conditions management index (FCMI), and then tested the framework on 51 municipalities in...