This paper presents empirical data on household perceptions of capability to adapt to climate haz... more This paper presents empirical data on household perceptions of capability to adapt to climate hazards and associated capacity needs. Households play an important role in responding to the impact of a changing climate by creating a functional link between individual and community responses to change. However, household perspectives on their capacity needs are rarely sought in programs seeking to provide incentives for household action—despite the influence of normative values and perceptions on household action. Rather, interventions are often informed by quantitative measures of adaptive capacity, such as access to financial or social capital. An alternative approach involves analysis of social narratives of capability that reflect normative perceptions of climate risk and capacity needs. Implementation of this approach reveals that a significant number of households in vulnerable locations consider existing capacities sufficient to manage familiar climate hazards, regardless of socio-economic circumstance. Our comparative study of two Australian coastal communities also suggests that a dominant narrative of capability to manage climate hazards reduces the likelihood of household investments in adaptive actions. While socio-political influences on narratives are often deeply embedded and difficult to change in the short term, identifying perceived risk and response capacity is pivotal in determining the likely utility of adaptive capacity stocks as measured through quantitative means.
Climate and human mobility are essentially interconnected and interdependent. Our mobility throug... more Climate and human mobility are essentially interconnected and interdependent. Our mobility through ground transportation system powered by fossil fuel is one of the primary forces behind the two major global crises of today's society, namely energy scarcity and climate change. On the other hand, long term change in climate and frequency of climate extreme events, such as hurricanes, floods, snow and ice storms can have both short term mobility challenges and cause long term human migrations as an adaptation phenomenon. ...
Projections of future climate change vary considerable among different atmosphere ocean general c... more Projections of future climate change vary considerable among different atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and climate forcing scenarios, and thus understanding of future climate change and its consequences is highly dependent upon the range of models and scenarios taken into consideration. To compensate for this limitation, a number of authors have proposed using multi-model ensembles to develop mean or probabilistic projections of future climate conditions. Here, a simple climate model (MAGICC/SCENGEN) was used to project future seasonal and annual changes in coterminous U.S. temperature and precipitation in 2025, 2050, and 2100 using seven AOGCMs (CSIRO, CSM, ECHM4, GFDL, HADCM2, HADCM3, PCM) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's six SRES marker scenarios. Model results were used to calculate cumulative probability distributions for temperature and precipitation changes. Different weighting schemes were applied to the AOGCM results reflecting different assumptions about the relative likelihood of different models and forcing scenarios. EQUAL results were unweighted, while SENS and REA results were weighted by climate sensitivity and model performance, respectively. For each of these assumptions, additional results were also generated using weighted forcing scenarios (SCENARIO), for a total of six probability distributions for each season and time period. Average median temperature and precipitation changes in 2100 among the probability distributions were +3.4° C (1.6-6.6° C) and +2.4% (-1.3-10%), respectively. Greater warming was projected for June, July, and August (JJA) relative to other seasons, and modest decreases in precipitation were projected for JJA while modest increases were projected for other seasons. The EQUAL and REA distributions were quite similar, while REA distributions were significantly constrained in comparison. Weighting of forcing scenarios reduced the upper 95% confidence limit for temperature and precipitation changes under the EQUAL and REA distributions, but had little effect on the REA distributions. Although these methods do not represent a completely unbiased sample of possible climate outcomes, multi-model ensembles from simple climate models may be useful for better incorporation of climate uncertainty into impact assessment and other applications.
Generating estimates of the future impacts of climate change on human and natural systems is conf... more Generating estimates of the future impacts of climate change on human and natural systems is confounded by cascading uncertainties which propagate through the impact assessment. Here, a simple stochastic rainfall-runoff model representing 238 river basins on the Australian continent was used to assess the sensitivity of the risk of runoff changes to various sources of uncertainty. Uncertainties included global mean temperature change, greenhouse gas stabilisation targets, catchment sensitivities to climatic change, and the seasonality of runoff, rainfall, and evaporation. Model simulations provided estimates of the first-order risk of climate change to Australian catchments, with several regions having high likelihoods of experiencing significant reductions in future runoff. Climate uncertainty (at global and regional scales) was identified as the dominant driving force in hydrological risk assessments. Uncertainties in catchment sensitivities to climatic changes also influenced risk, provided they were sufficiently large, whereas structural assumptions of the model were generally negligible. Collectively, these results indicate that rigorous assessment of climate risk to water resources over relatively long time-scales is largely a function of adequately exploring the uncertainty space of future climate changes.
Coastal research and management often has an issue-specific focus, with little attention paid to ... more Coastal research and management often has an issue-specific focus, with little attention paid to the interdependencies between them. Climate variability is one such issue that is impacted by, and impacts on, several other areas (eg. coastal processes, infrastructure, health, and regional economies). These interdependencies create challenges for local councils to tackle these issues at a regional scale. Critical to this process of scaling-up is the adaptive capacity of local councils. In order to support local councils in the Sydney region to deal with the impacts of climate variability and change, the Sydney Coastal Councils Group, CSIRO and the University of the Sunshine Coast are undertaking an 18 month project through the Australian Greenhouse Office , National Climate Change Adaptation Program e ntitled "Systems Approach to Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Metropolises". The goal of this project is to work with local councils to determine key vulnerabil...
SMITH, T. F., BROOKE, C., PRESTON, B., GORDDARD, R., ABBS, D., MCINNES, K. WITHYCOMBE, G. and MOR... more SMITH, T. F., BROOKE, C., PRESTON, B., GORDDARD, R., ABBS, D., MCINNES, K. WITHYCOMBE, G. and MORRISON, C., 2007. Managing for Climate Variability in the Sydney Region. Journal of Coastal Research, SI 50 (Proceedings of the 9th International Coastal Symposium), 109 - 113. Gold Coast, Australia, ISSN 0749.0208 Coastal research and management often has an issue-specific focus, with little attention paid to the interdependencies between those issues. Climate variability is one such issue that is impacted by, and impacts on, several other areas (e.g. coastal processes, infrastructure, health and regional economies). These interdependencies create challenges for local governments to scale-up so as to tackle these issues at a regional scale. Critical to this process of scaling-up is the adaptive capacity of local governments. A method to assist local governments deal with climate variability in the Sydney region is being developed by CSIRO and the Sydney Coastal Councils Group through the...
Municipal planning represents a major avenue for achieving adaptation at local and regional scale... more Municipal planning represents a major avenue for achieving adaptation at local and regional scales, however significant constraints need to be acknowledged and addressed if adaptation is likely to advance through this mechanism. This paper considers the role of municipal (local government) planning and in particular the key constraints which currently limit this avenue for adaptation. The paper reviews the constraints
This paper presents empirical data on household perceptions of capability to adapt to climate haz... more This paper presents empirical data on household perceptions of capability to adapt to climate hazards and associated capacity needs. Households play an important role in responding to the impact of a changing climate by creating a functional link between individual and community responses to change. However, household perspectives on their capacity needs are rarely sought in programs seeking to provide incentives for household action—despite the influence of normative values and perceptions on household action. Rather, interventions are often informed by quantitative measures of adaptive capacity, such as access to financial or social capital. An alternative approach involves analysis of social narratives of capability that reflect normative perceptions of climate risk and capacity needs. Implementation of this approach reveals that a significant number of households in vulnerable locations consider existing capacities sufficient to manage familiar climate hazards, regardless of socio-economic circumstance. Our comparative study of two Australian coastal communities also suggests that a dominant narrative of capability to manage climate hazards reduces the likelihood of household investments in adaptive actions. While socio-political influences on narratives are often deeply embedded and difficult to change in the short term, identifying perceived risk and response capacity is pivotal in determining the likely utility of adaptive capacity stocks as measured through quantitative means.
Climate and human mobility are essentially interconnected and interdependent. Our mobility throug... more Climate and human mobility are essentially interconnected and interdependent. Our mobility through ground transportation system powered by fossil fuel is one of the primary forces behind the two major global crises of today's society, namely energy scarcity and climate change. On the other hand, long term change in climate and frequency of climate extreme events, such as hurricanes, floods, snow and ice storms can have both short term mobility challenges and cause long term human migrations as an adaptation phenomenon. ...
Projections of future climate change vary considerable among different atmosphere ocean general c... more Projections of future climate change vary considerable among different atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and climate forcing scenarios, and thus understanding of future climate change and its consequences is highly dependent upon the range of models and scenarios taken into consideration. To compensate for this limitation, a number of authors have proposed using multi-model ensembles to develop mean or probabilistic projections of future climate conditions. Here, a simple climate model (MAGICC/SCENGEN) was used to project future seasonal and annual changes in coterminous U.S. temperature and precipitation in 2025, 2050, and 2100 using seven AOGCMs (CSIRO, CSM, ECHM4, GFDL, HADCM2, HADCM3, PCM) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's six SRES marker scenarios. Model results were used to calculate cumulative probability distributions for temperature and precipitation changes. Different weighting schemes were applied to the AOGCM results reflecting different assumptions about the relative likelihood of different models and forcing scenarios. EQUAL results were unweighted, while SENS and REA results were weighted by climate sensitivity and model performance, respectively. For each of these assumptions, additional results were also generated using weighted forcing scenarios (SCENARIO), for a total of six probability distributions for each season and time period. Average median temperature and precipitation changes in 2100 among the probability distributions were +3.4° C (1.6-6.6° C) and +2.4% (-1.3-10%), respectively. Greater warming was projected for June, July, and August (JJA) relative to other seasons, and modest decreases in precipitation were projected for JJA while modest increases were projected for other seasons. The EQUAL and REA distributions were quite similar, while REA distributions were significantly constrained in comparison. Weighting of forcing scenarios reduced the upper 95% confidence limit for temperature and precipitation changes under the EQUAL and REA distributions, but had little effect on the REA distributions. Although these methods do not represent a completely unbiased sample of possible climate outcomes, multi-model ensembles from simple climate models may be useful for better incorporation of climate uncertainty into impact assessment and other applications.
Generating estimates of the future impacts of climate change on human and natural systems is conf... more Generating estimates of the future impacts of climate change on human and natural systems is confounded by cascading uncertainties which propagate through the impact assessment. Here, a simple stochastic rainfall-runoff model representing 238 river basins on the Australian continent was used to assess the sensitivity of the risk of runoff changes to various sources of uncertainty. Uncertainties included global mean temperature change, greenhouse gas stabilisation targets, catchment sensitivities to climatic change, and the seasonality of runoff, rainfall, and evaporation. Model simulations provided estimates of the first-order risk of climate change to Australian catchments, with several regions having high likelihoods of experiencing significant reductions in future runoff. Climate uncertainty (at global and regional scales) was identified as the dominant driving force in hydrological risk assessments. Uncertainties in catchment sensitivities to climatic changes also influenced risk, provided they were sufficiently large, whereas structural assumptions of the model were generally negligible. Collectively, these results indicate that rigorous assessment of climate risk to water resources over relatively long time-scales is largely a function of adequately exploring the uncertainty space of future climate changes.
Coastal research and management often has an issue-specific focus, with little attention paid to ... more Coastal research and management often has an issue-specific focus, with little attention paid to the interdependencies between them. Climate variability is one such issue that is impacted by, and impacts on, several other areas (eg. coastal processes, infrastructure, health, and regional economies). These interdependencies create challenges for local councils to tackle these issues at a regional scale. Critical to this process of scaling-up is the adaptive capacity of local councils. In order to support local councils in the Sydney region to deal with the impacts of climate variability and change, the Sydney Coastal Councils Group, CSIRO and the University of the Sunshine Coast are undertaking an 18 month project through the Australian Greenhouse Office , National Climate Change Adaptation Program e ntitled "Systems Approach to Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Metropolises". The goal of this project is to work with local councils to determine key vulnerabil...
SMITH, T. F., BROOKE, C., PRESTON, B., GORDDARD, R., ABBS, D., MCINNES, K. WITHYCOMBE, G. and MOR... more SMITH, T. F., BROOKE, C., PRESTON, B., GORDDARD, R., ABBS, D., MCINNES, K. WITHYCOMBE, G. and MORRISON, C., 2007. Managing for Climate Variability in the Sydney Region. Journal of Coastal Research, SI 50 (Proceedings of the 9th International Coastal Symposium), 109 - 113. Gold Coast, Australia, ISSN 0749.0208 Coastal research and management often has an issue-specific focus, with little attention paid to the interdependencies between those issues. Climate variability is one such issue that is impacted by, and impacts on, several other areas (e.g. coastal processes, infrastructure, health and regional economies). These interdependencies create challenges for local governments to scale-up so as to tackle these issues at a regional scale. Critical to this process of scaling-up is the adaptive capacity of local governments. A method to assist local governments deal with climate variability in the Sydney region is being developed by CSIRO and the Sydney Coastal Councils Group through the...
Municipal planning represents a major avenue for achieving adaptation at local and regional scale... more Municipal planning represents a major avenue for achieving adaptation at local and regional scales, however significant constraints need to be acknowledged and addressed if adaptation is likely to advance through this mechanism. This paper considers the role of municipal (local government) planning and in particular the key constraints which currently limit this avenue for adaptation. The paper reviews the constraints
Uploads
Papers