This paper develops a time series model to forecast the growth in imports by major advanced econo... more This paper develops a time series model to forecast the growth in imports by major advanced economies in the current and following year (two to six quarters ahead). Both pure time series analysis and structural approaches that include additional predictors based on economic theory are used. Our results compare favourably with other trade forecasts, as measured by standard evaluation statistics
... The impact of a large disaster on international trade can be transmitted either directly or i... more ... The impact of a large disaster on international trade can be transmitted either directly or indirectly ... Damage to public infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, railways and telecommunication systems, can ... impact of a disaster is likely to be transmitted indirectly through a reduction in ...
In the context of economic partnership agreements (EPAs) currently under negotiation between the ... more In the context of economic partnership agreements (EPAs) currently under negotiation between the European Union (EU) and African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries, trade is meant to be progressively liberalised in a reciprocal way as of 2008. EPAs are also intended to ...
This paper develops a time series model to forecast the growth in imports by major advanced econo... more This paper develops a time series model to forecast the growth in imports by major advanced economies in the current and following year (two to six quarters ahead). Both pure time series analysis and structural approaches that include additional predictors based on economic theory are used. Our results compare favourably with other trade forecasts, as measured by standard evaluation statistics
... The impact of a large disaster on international trade can be transmitted either directly or i... more ... The impact of a large disaster on international trade can be transmitted either directly or indirectly ... Damage to public infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, railways and telecommunication systems, can ... impact of a disaster is likely to be transmitted indirectly through a reduction in ...
In the context of economic partnership agreements (EPAs) currently under negotiation between the ... more In the context of economic partnership agreements (EPAs) currently under negotiation between the European Union (EU) and African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries, trade is meant to be progressively liberalised in a reciprocal way as of 2008. EPAs are also intended to ...
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Papers by Alexander Keck