ABSTRACT Louisiana is in the midst of a land loss crisis that has claimed more than 4800 km 2 sin... more ABSTRACT Louisiana is in the midst of a land loss crisis that has claimed more than 4800 km 2 since the 1930s. Unless aggressive, large-scale action is taken, Louisiana could lose an additional 4500 km 2 in the next 50 years, resulting in a projected increase in annual damages from hurricane storm surge flooding of more than $23 billion. Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan is a long-term plan with clear economic, social, and environmental benefits, such as decreasing potential damages from storm surge by $5.3 billion to $18 billion. Implementation of projects in the master plan should result in no net loss of land after 20 years and an annual net gain of land after 30 years. To develop the plan, the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) utilized a state-of-the-art systems approach to coastal planning and a science-based decision-making process that resulted in a funding- and resource-constrained plan that makes the greatest progress toward achieving a sustainable coast. A series of integrated, coastwide predictive models were developed to provide data for a new planning tool used to identify the suite of projects that would make the greatest progress toward meeting the master plan objectives while considering uncertainties in future environmental conditions. Recognizing that the success of the plan hinges on stakeholder support, as well as science, the CPRA also implemented a comprehensive outreach plan to obtain input and feedback from key stakeholders and the public. The resulting plan recommends a specific list of restoration and protection projects and has achieved widespread support.
—The development of ecosystem management plans to restore and rehabilitate natural resources requ... more —The development of ecosystem management plans to restore and rehabilitate natural resources requires an understanding of how specific ecological mechanisms regulate the structure and function of ecosystems. To achieve restoration goals, comprehensive plans and engineering designs must effectively change environmental drivers at the regional level to reduce stress conditions at the local environment that are responsible for ecosystem degradation. This document focuses on the Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) ecosystem forecasting framework and how it can be used to support the analysis of Louisiana's coastal restoration plans. Specifically, the framework is designed to (1) develop and incorporate conceptual ecological models that can be used to integrate ecological needs and opportunities with engineering designs, (2) utilize wetland loss rates to describe the most likely " future without " scenario for a variety of ecosystem attributes, (3) estimate broad ecosystem responses to restoration alternatives based on processes associated with succession of geomorphic and ecological systems, and (4) calculate ecological benefits for incorporation into decision support tools associated with large-scale geomorphic and hydrologic processes. This paper provides a brief overview of the spatial framework and modular design of the CLEAR ecosystem forecasting framework and describes in greater detail the evolution of the landscape change module, concepts for its refinement, and how it was utilized in evaluating a coastal restoration alternative proposed in the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority Preliminary Draft Master Plan. Such projections by the CLEAR forecasting framework can evaluate processes and conditions that result in sustainable coastal ecosystems with habitat functions that support higher trophic levels.
ABSTRACT Louisiana is in the midst of a land loss crisis that has claimed more than 4800 km 2 sin... more ABSTRACT Louisiana is in the midst of a land loss crisis that has claimed more than 4800 km 2 since the 1930s. Unless aggressive, large-scale action is taken, Louisiana could lose an additional 4500 km 2 in the next 50 years, resulting in a projected increase in annual damages from hurricane storm surge flooding of more than $23 billion. Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan is a long-term plan with clear economic, social, and environmental benefits, such as decreasing potential damages from storm surge by $5.3 billion to $18 billion. Implementation of projects in the master plan should result in no net loss of land after 20 years and an annual net gain of land after 30 years. To develop the plan, the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) utilized a state-of-the-art systems approach to coastal planning and a science-based decision-making process that resulted in a funding- and resource-constrained plan that makes the greatest progress toward achieving a sustainable coast. A series of integrated, coastwide predictive models were developed to provide data for a new planning tool used to identify the suite of projects that would make the greatest progress toward meeting the master plan objectives while considering uncertainties in future environmental conditions. Recognizing that the success of the plan hinges on stakeholder support, as well as science, the CPRA also implemented a comprehensive outreach plan to obtain input and feedback from key stakeholders and the public. The resulting plan recommends a specific list of restoration and protection projects and has achieved widespread support.
—The development of ecosystem management plans to restore and rehabilitate natural resources requ... more —The development of ecosystem management plans to restore and rehabilitate natural resources requires an understanding of how specific ecological mechanisms regulate the structure and function of ecosystems. To achieve restoration goals, comprehensive plans and engineering designs must effectively change environmental drivers at the regional level to reduce stress conditions at the local environment that are responsible for ecosystem degradation. This document focuses on the Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) ecosystem forecasting framework and how it can be used to support the analysis of Louisiana's coastal restoration plans. Specifically, the framework is designed to (1) develop and incorporate conceptual ecological models that can be used to integrate ecological needs and opportunities with engineering designs, (2) utilize wetland loss rates to describe the most likely " future without " scenario for a variety of ecosystem attributes, (3) estimate broad ecosystem responses to restoration alternatives based on processes associated with succession of geomorphic and ecological systems, and (4) calculate ecological benefits for incorporation into decision support tools associated with large-scale geomorphic and hydrologic processes. This paper provides a brief overview of the spatial framework and modular design of the CLEAR ecosystem forecasting framework and describes in greater detail the evolution of the landscape change module, concepts for its refinement, and how it was utilized in evaluating a coastal restoration alternative proposed in the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority Preliminary Draft Master Plan. Such projections by the CLEAR forecasting framework can evaluate processes and conditions that result in sustainable coastal ecosystems with habitat functions that support higher trophic levels.
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Papers by Alaina Owens