Agne Paliokaite

ABSTRACT This paper presents the methodological approach and first results of the ongoing national level foresight process organised in Lithuania in the context of preparing the smart specialisation strategy and defining the national research and innovation priorities. The main objective is not to determine where to invest but how to help agents to discover where to invest in a decentralised and bottom-up logic. The methodology accepted in Lithuania departs from the traditional approach to priority setting focused on identification of research fields or economy sectors, and builds on the concepts of long term challenges and critical technologies. Choosing challenges-based priorities allows to better develop synergies and integrated policies, thus reducing fragmentation. A mixed qualitative and quantitative methods approach is applied, including the expert panels, Delphi surveys, statistical and bibliometrical analysis, scenarios and roadmaps, and analytical studies on the emerging trends and longterm challenges.

ABSTRACT This paper presents the methodological approach and first results of the ongoing national level foresight process organised in Lithuania in the context of preparing the smart specialisation strategy and defining the national research and innovation priorities. The main objective is not to determine where to invest but how to help agents to discover where to invest in a decentralised and bottom-up logic. The methodology accepted in Lithuania departs from the traditional approach to priority setting focused on identification of research fields or economy sectors, and builds on the concepts of long term challenges and critical technologies. Choosing challenges-based priorities allows to better develop synergies and integrated policies, thus reducing fragmentation. A mixed qualitative and quantitative methods approach is applied, including the expert panels, Delphi surveys, statistical and bibliometrical analysis, scenarios and roadmaps, and analytical studies on the emerging trends and longterm challenges.

ABSTRACT The relationship between organisational foresight and organisational ambidexterity is the focal point of this paper. Foresight is believed to be having a positive impact on triggering organisational ambidexterity, especially explorative (radical) innovation. Very little empirical research has been done so far to test the probability of this theory with higher constraint designs. This paper reports on the results of a survey involving 230 manufacturing companies in Lithuania. It confirms the importance of organisational foresight, recognising its contribution to both explorative and exploitative innovations, i.e. organisational ambidexterity. Based on a conceptual model that describes organisational foresight as a set of environmental scanning, strategic selection and integrating capabilities, this paper proposes testable measures of organisational foresight. We empirically test the model and provide evidence to the theoretical relationship between organisational foresight and organisational ambidexterity.

ABSTRACT Purpose - This practice based paper discusses application of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) methods for entrepreneurial discovery process and the design of S3 policy mixes. Key interest of this paper is how bottom-up FTA translates into policy decisions. The objectives are threefold: to explain the selected methodological approach; to discuss the results, key lessons and risks that unfolded during the process; to discuss scenarios of how the roadmaps will be implemented. Methodology – The paper builds on a case study from a post-soviet country where a three-staged FTA process was adopted for defining the smart specialisation (S3) priorities and their implementation strategies. Specifically, focus is on the last stage - developing roadmaps for the implementation of selected S3 priorities. The methodological assumptions are presented, including a ‘stairway of competence’ model of four potential and current innovators type. Findings – The paper finds that participatory FTA approach created ownership of the selected priorities, fostered trans-sectoral dialogue and learning, and helped to distil measurable results where public and private efforts should be focused. However, design of the policy mixes in the roadmaps moved away from the proposed guidelines. The paper offers a discussion of the two logics that govern the behaviour of organizational actors - logic of consequentiality versus logic of appropriateness. An outlook to implementation of the S3 roadmaps is provided by discussing three alternative scenarios. Keywords: technology roadmap, entrepreneurial discovery, innovation policy mix, logic of consequentiality, logic of appropriateness.