- Dr Ademola Obafemi YOUNG is a Lecturer I in the Department of Economics Mountain Top University, Lagos-Ibadan Express... moreDr Ademola Obafemi YOUNG is a Lecturer I in the Department of Economics Mountain Top University, Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, Prayer City, Ogun State, Nigeria where he is a faculty member. He obtained M.Sc. and Ph.D Economics and a Bachelor of Science (Second Class Upper Division) degree in Economics Education from Obafemi Awolowo University. His research interests comprise Labour, Human Resource and Development Economics. His teaching courses include but not limited to: Principle of Microeconomics and Macroeconomics, Intermediate Microeconomics and Macroeconomics, Economics of Production, Applied Statistics, Managerial Economics, Comparative Economic Systems, Economic Planning and Public Sector Economics. He is quantitatively strong and has capacity for independent academic study, possesses strong imaginative thought and gets on well with colleagues. In addition to the above, he is result oriented, target driven, time conscious, honest and have administrative, coordinative and computer skills Furthermore, he is proficient in oral and written expression of English Language. He is available for research collaboration and consulting. He is married.edit
Two opposite strands of literature analysing export diversification’s role in promoting sustainable growth have evolved in international economics and development, namely, the intensive and extensive margins of exports. This study... more
Two opposite strands of literature analysing export diversification’s role in promoting sustainable growth have evolved in international economics and development, namely, the intensive and extensive margins of exports. This study empirically investigates which of the margin is more useful towards promoting sustainable growth using annual time series data of Nigeria for the period 1960–2021. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and innovative accounting procedure were employed. The ARDL results reveal that both margins significantly enhance growth in short and long run. However, importance of the extensive margin, in aggregate, dominates that of the intensive margin. Likewise, the results from innovative accounting procedures reveal that although both margins contribute positively to growth, the contribution to growth of extensive margin dominates over that of the intensive margin. These results, thus, lend credence to the extensive-margin exposition, which postulates that the export of extant commodities to new market destinations or export of new commodities to new and/or old market destinations plays a relatively more important role in export growth/diversification and, ultimately, sustainable growth. The study recommends that governments should develop and implement economic policies aimed at enhancing exports of value-added commodities—due to their relatively high income and price elasticities over primary commodities—to maximise the benefits in the extensive margin. JEL Codes: F10, F14, O10, O12, O50, O55
Research Interests:
Purpose ― This study contributes to the empirical literature on the nonlinear relationship between public debt and economic growth in Nigeria using threshold regression methodology. It provides insight into how Nigeria can grow out of... more
Purpose ― This study contributes to the empirical literature on the nonlinear relationship between public debt and economic growth in Nigeria using threshold regression methodology. It provides insight into how Nigeria can grow out of debt sustainably in the face of the prevailing level of corruption as an institutional indicator. Method ― Stata's threshold command is used for data analysis, and this command fits time-series threshold models in finding the optimal number of thresholds. It does this by minimising an information criterion and using conditional least squares to estimate the parameters of the threshold regression model. Findings ― The results show that the relationship between public debt and economic growth is nonlinear. The threshold effect of public debt on growth depends on the debt-to-GDP ratio and the level of corruption. Substantial evidence supports two threshold levels of debt-to-GDP ratio and corruption in the debt-growth nexus. The two threshold levels of...
Research Interests:
The question of whether developing countries should pursue specialization or diversification in export as a driver of sustainable economic growth has been a subject of an intense debate in economic literature. At present, one... more
The question of whether developing countries should pursue specialization or diversification in export as a driver of sustainable economic growth has been a subject of an intense debate in economic literature. At present, one understanding of the debate, as postulated by Imbs and Wacziarg (2003), is that economies grow through two stages of diversification and concentration as income grows: they initially diversify but re-specialize once a (relatively) high level of income per capita is attained. A U-shaped curve best explains the notion. With Nigeria as a reference country, we employed ARDL procedure and examined the aforementioned exposition over the period 1960-2019. Specifically, the non-monotonic relationship between diversification and growth is examined. In furtherance, we examined the impact of diversification on the effect of non-oil exports on growth. Employing an augmented production-function framework and two distinct measures of diversification, we find, contrary to the...
Research Interests:
This paper examined empirically the impact of labour force dynamics on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970–2015 using the newly developed bounds testing approach to co-integration. The results obtained revealed that both the... more
This paper examined empirically the impact of labour force dynamics on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970–2015 using the newly developed bounds testing approach to co-integration. The results obtained revealed that both the short-run and long-run growth impacts of labour force dynamics in Nigeria are significant and positive. In particular, the results showed that for a one-percentage point increase in labour force dynamics, 1.0825 percent per capital real GDP is induced in the long-run. Having ascertained the significance of labour force dynamics in positively influencing economic growth in Nigeria, the study, thus, recommends that the government should implement a broad set of employment generating policies with the ultimate aim of fostering a sustained increase in the growth rate of real GDP. Keywords: Labour Force Dynamics; Demographic Transition; Economic Growth.
Research Interests:
While global ageing suggests a triumph of social, economic, and medical advances over diseases, however, in economics regarding the growth implications of ageing, it is a puzzle as to what direction the effect will go. This motivates the... more
While global ageing suggests a triumph of social, economic, and medical advances over diseases, however, in economics regarding the growth implications of ageing, it is a puzzle as to what direction the effect will go. This motivates the current study to investigate empirically the economic growth consequences of population ageing in the context of Nigerian economy spanning between the period 1970 and 2015. Innovation Accounting Techniques was applied to assess the dynamic interactions among the variables. The results obtained revealed that the innovation in life expectancy and change in adult age dependency had the least contribution to the variation in per capita real GDP growth rate. The magnitude ranges between 1.45 and 8.33 percent. These results, thus, lend credence to the pessimistic view which contend that the inequality in a country’s population age structure, particularly, a greater share of the population of the elderly, depresses the country’s productivity level. Hence, ...
Research Interests:
This study assessed the prospect for second demographic dividend in Nigeria using time series secondary data spanning the period between 1970 and 2015. Employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and TYDL Approach to Granger... more
This study assessed the prospect for second demographic dividend in Nigeria using time series secondary data spanning the period between 1970 and 2015. Employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and TYDL Approach to Granger causality tests, the paper found the existence of cointegration among the variables. Furthermore, the results obtained revealed the existence of causality running from economic support ratio to household savings. Equally, the results found showed the existence of causality running from household savings to private investment. However, the null hypothesis that private investment does not granger cause economic growth is accepted. These results, thus, implied that although second dividend is under way in Nigeria but the dividend is not an automatic phenomenon. An optimal utilization of the dividend requires an integrated policy framework, appropriate policies, job creation and sustenance of the war on corruption. Keywords: Demographic Transition; Demogra...
Research Interests:
The debate on the nature of the relationship between cohort size and unemployment rate has been widely studied and generated a substantial body of literature in labor economics discourse. However, an in-depth reading of this literature... more
The debate on the nature of the relationship between cohort size and unemployment rate has been widely studied and generated a substantial body of literature in labor economics discourse. However, an in-depth reading of this literature suggests that, besides the fact that findings are mixed and do not provide conclusive evidences, one hardly ever comes across studies exclusively on African countries. Likewise, generalized studies across countries employing pooled data seem to dominate the literature. In light of these, the current study examines the nature of the said relationship, over the period 1970–2019, in Nigeria in a multivariate and dynamic framework. Employing Bounds testing procedure, the article finds that both the short-run and long-run impacts of cohort size on overall unemployment rate are positive and statistically significant. This suggests that aggregate unemployment rate tends to be higher when many young people supply labor. In view of these findings, the article ...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Despite impressive economic growth and major economic reform policies the search for poverty-reducing growth strategies remains a perennial question in many developing countries as poverty persists unabated. This motivates the current... more
Despite impressive economic growth and major economic reform policies the search for poverty-reducing growth strategies remains a perennial question in many developing countries as poverty persists unabated. This motivates the current study to investigate empirically growth-poverty nexus in Nigeria spanning between the period 1970 and 2017. The paper attempted to answer the question: why has growth not trickled down to the poor? Time series econometrics were applied to test the cointegrating, short- and long-run dynamics among the variables. The results obtained revealed that growth trickled down to the poor only when high rates of employment growth accompanied high rates of economic growth. In addition to employment, the result also revealed that the form of capital formation, rather than its absolute value, appears to matter to the question of why has growth not trickle down to the poor. Thus, economic growth policies that promote an increase in income in conjunction with a high r...
Research Interests:
In demography and population economics discourse, the macroeconomic implications of an upsurge in working age population, notably the labour force, on economic growth has been widely studied and the inherent beneficial impact has become... more
In demography and population economics discourse, the macroeconomic implications of an upsurge in working age population, notably the labour force, on economic growth has been widely studied and the inherent beneficial impact has become known as demographic dividend. However, the exact mechanism linking the dividend to growth remains a perennial question. This motivates the current study to investigate empirically the dividend-growth nexus in the context of Nigerian economy in a multivariate VAR model spanning between the period 1970 and 2017. Specifically, the paper attempted to answer the question: Is the Nigerian Demographic Dividend an Education-triggered Dividend? Innovation Accounting Techniques was applied to assess the dynamic interactions among the variables. The empirical evidence obtained revealed that the innovation in gross enrollment made much contribution to the variation in economic growth relative to innovation in economic support ratio. The magnitude ranges between...
Research Interests:
The debate on whether income inequality promotes, restricts, or is independent of economic growth has been widely studied and discussed in development economics discourse. However, a careful reading of this extensive extant and burgeoning... more
The debate on whether income inequality promotes, restricts, or is independent of economic growth has been widely studied and discussed in development economics discourse. However, a careful reading of this extensive extant and burgeoning literature suggests that, other than the ambivalent nature and the fact that the bulk of these studies relied heavily on cross-section/-country/panel econometric analysis, empirical studies examining the nexus in the context of less developed economies, particularly, African countries, has received less attention, as most of the extant studies predominantly focused on developed economies. This current study, thus, attempts to examine the impact of inequality on growth in Nigeria spanning between the period 1970 and 2018. It also examined the theoretical predictions of some of the distinct transmission channels through which inequality impacts growth. Time series econometrics were applied. The results obtained consistently revealed that inequality h...
Research Interests:
The nature of the relationship between unemployment rate and the size of a specifically defined age group, or cohort, notably the young workers in the working-age population, has been a subject of an intense debate, widely studied and... more
The nature of the relationship between unemployment rate and the size of a specifically defined age group, or cohort, notably the young workers in the working-age population, has been a subject of an intense debate, widely studied and generated a sizable body of literature. However, while the debate is still inconclusive, an in-depth reading of these expansive extant and crescive literatures suggests that besides the contradictory findings, one of the major drawbacks with these literatures is that hardly any studies have been reported exclusively for African countries, as most of the extant literature principally focused on European, Asian, and American economies. Moreover, generalized studies across countries employing pooled data appears to dominate the literature. Thus, using annual time series secondary data spanning between the period 1970 and 2019, this study employs bounds testing approach to co-integration to examine the nature of the aforementioned relationship in Nigeria. ...
The nature of the relationship between unemployment rate and the size of a specifically defined age group, or cohort, notably the young workers in the working-age population, has been a subject of an intense debate, widely studied and... more
The nature of the relationship between unemployment rate and the size of a specifically defined age group, or cohort, notably the young workers in the working-age population, has been a subject of an intense debate, widely studied and generated a sizable body of literature. However, while the debate is still inconclusive, an in-depth reading of these expansive extant and crescive literatures suggests that besides the contradictory findings, one of the major drawbacks with these literatures is that hardly any studies have been reported exclusively for African countries, as most of the extant literature principally focused on European, Asian, and American economies. Moreover, generalized studies across countries employing pooled data appears to dominate the literature. Thus, using annual time series secondary data spanning between the period 1970 and 2019, this study employs bounds testing approach to co-integration to examine the nature of the aforementioned relationship in Nigeria. ...
The debate on the nature of the relationship between cohort size and unemployment rate has been widely studied and generated a substantial body of literature in labor economics discourse. However, an in-depth reading of this literature... more
The debate on the nature of the relationship between cohort size and unemployment rate has been widely studied and generated a substantial body of literature in labor economics discourse. However, an in-depth reading of this literature suggests that, besides the fact that findings are mixed and do not provide conclusive evidences, one hardly ever comes across studies exclusively on African countries. Likewise, generalized studies across countries employing pooled data seem to dominate the literature. In light of these, the current study examines the nature of the said relationship, over the period 1970–2019, in Nigeria in a multivariate and dynamic framework. Employing Bounds testing procedure, the article finds that both the short-run and long-run impacts of cohort size on overall unemployment rate are positive and statistically significant. This suggests that aggregate unemployment rate tends to be higher when many young people supply labor. In view of these findings, the article recommends that government should collaborate with private sector to develop and implement functional microcredit schemes. Such schemes should be flexibly structured to avert institutional bottlenecks and enhance accountability and transparency in their management
Research Interests:
Article History Keywords Export-led growth hypothesis Tourism-led growth hypothesis TYDL granger-causality test Vector autoregressive model Innovation accounting Techniques. The causal relationship between economic growth and tourism... more
Article History Keywords Export-led growth hypothesis Tourism-led growth hypothesis TYDL granger-causality test Vector autoregressive model Innovation accounting Techniques. The causal relationship between economic growth and tourism development, first formalized by Balaguer and Cantavella-Jorda, has been a subject of an intensive debate, extensively discussed and studied in tourism economics treatise. However, an in-depth reading of this literature suggests that, besides the fact that evidences are contentious and mixed across data, methodologies, countries and, remain at best inconclusive; country-specific studies examining the relationship within the context of African countries has received relatively little attention as the bulk of existent country-specific studies mostly focused on European, American, and Asian economies. Thus, the study empirically examines whether the rapidly developing tourism sector can effectively stimulate growth in Nigeria from the period 1995 to 2019. Bounds testing procedure to co-integration, Toda-Yamamoto and Dolado-Lutkepohl approach to causality and Innovative Accounting Techniques were applied. Empirical results reveal that tourism receipts and arrivals per capital from tourism industry can effectively stimulate long-and short-run growth, as do investments in human and physical capital, in Nigeria. Thus, apt policies such as provision of adequate securities for both foreign and domestic tourists, tax incentives to tourism related industries and hotels, investment in basic infrastructure that will enhance and accelerate tourism expansion in the country should be pursued. Contribution/Originality: This study contributes to exiting literature by examining the relationship between economic growth and tourism development.
Research Interests:
In demography and population economics discourse, the macroeconomic implications of an upsurge in working age population, notably the labour force, on economic growth has been widely studied and the inherent beneficial impact has become... more
In demography and population economics discourse, the macroeconomic implications of an upsurge in working age population, notably the labour force, on economic growth has been widely studied and the inherent beneficial impact has become known as demographic dividend. However, the exact mechanism linking the dividend to growth remains a perennial question. This motivates the current study to investigate empirically the dividend-growth nexus in the context of Nigerian economy in a multivariate VAR model spanning between the period 1970 and 2017. Specifically, the paper attempted to answer the question: Is the Nigerian Demographic Dividend an Education-triggered Dividend? Innovation Accounting Techniques was applied to assess the dynamic interactions among the variables. The empirical evidence obtained revealed that the innovation in gross enrollment made much contribution to the variation in economic growth relative to innovation in economic support ratio. The magnitude ranges between 20.09 and 27.54 percent. This result, thus, lend credence to the theoretical view of the education-triggered dividend model which ascribes to education twofold roles of helping to lessen fertility and also enhancing productivity but invalidates the conventional dividend paradigm.
Research Interests:
As it is in other parts of the world, demographic transition opens a unique window of opportunity in Nigeria. Declining infant and child mortality help to spur lower fertility effectively resulting in baby boom. As this cohort moves into... more
As it is in other parts of the world, demographic transition opens a unique window of opportunity in Nigeria. Declining infant and child mortality help to spur lower fertility effectively resulting in baby boom. As this cohort moves into working ages, Nigeria finds a potentially higher share of labour force. This increase in labour force creates a window of opportunity during which the economy may benefit by raising labour supply, and by extension, raising economic support ratio and correspondingly per capita income, a phenomenon known as demographic dividend. Using descriptive statistics, this study analyzed the demographic dividend trends available to Nigeria and its implications for economic growth. An insight from the analysis revealed that although Nigeria's demographic evolution over the coming decades will provide a potential boost to its economic growth, an optimal utilization of the dividends requires an integrated policy framework, appropriate policies and job creation. Hence, having a larger, healthier, and better-educated workforce will bear economic fruit only if the extra workers are productively employed. The study recommends that government should implement a broad set of employment generating policies with the ultimate aim of fostering a sustained increase in the growth rate of real GDP.
Research Interests:
In recent years, the debate on whether growth is sufficient for poverty alleviation or it should be accompanied by the establishment of income distribution policies has been a subject of controversy in economic development discourse.... more
In recent years, the debate on whether growth is sufficient for poverty alleviation or it should be accompanied by the establishment of income distribution policies has been a subject of controversy in economic development discourse. While the debate is still inconclusive, there are strong arguments that though growth is good for the poor; nonetheless, growth with redistribution is expected to provide even better outcomes. This study seeks to supplement the debate by providing empirical evidence from Nigeria's poverty trends. The paper estimated poverty elasticity with respect to growth and inequality, the theoretically well-established pro-poor growth index and growth-inequality trade-off index in the context of Nigerian economy spanning between the period 1970 and 2018 using ARDL-Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration. The results obtained revealed that high poverty elasticity with respect to inequality measures confirm the importance of inequality in poverty reducing effort. Thus, economic growth policies that promote an increase in income in conjunction with a reduction in income disparities are more effective in combating poverty in Nigeria than those that focus only on raising RGDP per capita growth.
Research Interests:
While global ageing suggests a triumph of social, economic, and medical advances over diseases, however, in economics regarding the growth implications of ageing, it is a puzzle as to what direction the effect will go. This motivates the... more
While global ageing suggests a triumph of social, economic, and medical advances over diseases, however, in economics regarding the growth implications of ageing, it is a puzzle as to what direction the effect will go. This motivates the current study to investigate empirically the economic growth consequences of population ageing in the context of Nigerian economy spanning between the period 1970 and 2015. Innovation Accounting Techniques was applied to assess the dynamic interactions among the variables. The results obtained revealed that the innovation in life expectancy and change in adult age dependency had the least contribution to the variation in per capita real GDP growth rate. The magnitude ranges between 1.45 and 8.33 percent. These results, thus, lend credence to the pessimistic view which contend that the inequality in a country's population age structure, particularly, a greater share of the population of the elderly, depresses the country's productivity level. Hence, the study recommends that any long term growth strategy aimed at boosting per capita income at a sustainable rate over the next ten (10) to fifteen (15) years needs to envision policies and reforms that are likely to foster savings and boost returns on them.
Research Interests:
The debate on whether income inequality promotes, restricts, or is independent of economic growth has been widely studied and discussed in development economics discourse. However, a careful reading of this extensive extant and burgeoning... more
The debate on whether income inequality promotes, restricts, or is independent of economic growth has been widely studied and discussed in development economics discourse. However, a careful reading of this extensive extant and burgeoning literature suggests that, other than the ambivalent nature and the fact that the bulk of these studies relied heavily on cross-section/-country/panel econometric analysis, empirical studies examining the nexus in the context of less developed economies, particularly, African countries, has received less attention, as most of the extant studies predominantly focused on developed economies. This current study, thus, attempts to examine the impact of inequality on growth in Nigeria spanning between the period 1970 and 2018. It also examined the theoretical predictions of some of the distinct transmission channels through which inequality impacts growth. Time series econometrics were applied. The results obtained consistently revealed that inequality hurts long-run growth in Nigeria. Also, the results obtained revealed that inequality in income increases relative redistribution and fertility, but lessens investment, gross enrollment ratio, and property rights protection in Nigeria, which may in turn impede growth.
Research Interests:
This paper examined empirically the impact of labour force dynamics on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2015 using the newly developed bounds testing approach to co-integration. The results obtained revealed that both the... more
This paper examined empirically the impact of labour force dynamics on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2015 using the newly developed bounds testing approach to co-integration. The results obtained revealed that both the short-run and long-run growth impacts of labour force dynamics in Nigeria are significant and positive. In particular, the results showed that for a one-percentage point increase in labour force dynamics, 1.0825 percent per capital real GDP is induced in the long-run. Having ascertained the significance of labour force dynamics in positively influencing economic growth in Nigeria, the study, thus, recommends that the government should implement a broad set of employment generating policies with the ultimate aim of fostering a sustained increase in the growth rate of real GDP.
Research Interests:
This study assessed the prospect for second demographic dividend in Nigeria using time series secondary data spanning the period between 1970 and 2015. Employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and TYDL Approach to Granger... more
This study assessed the prospect for second demographic dividend in Nigeria using time series secondary data spanning the period between 1970 and 2015. Employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and TYDL Approach to Granger causality tests, the paper found the existence of cointegration among the variables. Furthermore, the results obtained revealed the existence of causality running from economic support ratio to household savings. Equally, the results found showed the existence of causality running from household savings to private investment. However, the null hypothesis that private investment does not granger cause economic growth is accepted. These results, thus, implied that although second dividend is under way in Nigeria but the dividend is not an automatic phenomenon. An optimal utilization of the dividend requires an integrated policy framework, appropriate policies, job creation and sustenance of the war on corruption.
Research Interests:
This study examines the effects of age structures on economic growth in Nigeria between 1970 and 2011 using secondary data. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Error Correction Modelling (ECM) were employed. The study found that a large size... more
This study examines the effects of age structures on economic growth in Nigeria between 1970 and 2011 using secondary data. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Error Correction Modelling (ECM) were employed. The study found that a large size of the population of both children and elderly relative to the working age population constitutes a "demographic burden". While an increasing size of the population of children has a greater negative impact on economic growth than an increasing size of the elderly. The study recommends that demographic variables such age structures need to be substantive component of socio-economic development planning in Nigeria
Research Interests:
Despite impressive economic growth and major economic reform policies the search for poverty-reducing growth strategies remains a perennial question in many developing countries as poverty persists unabated. This motivates the current... more
Despite impressive economic growth and major economic reform policies the search for poverty-reducing growth strategies remains a perennial question in many developing countries as poverty persists unabated. This motivates the current study to investigate empirically growth-poverty nexus in Nigeria spanning between the period 1970 and 2017. The paper attempted to answer the question: why has growth not trickled down to the poor? Time series econometrics were applied to test the cointegrating, short-and long-run dynamics among the variables. The results obtained revealed that growth trickled down to the poor only when high rates of employment growth accompanied high rates of economic growth. In addition to employment, the result also revealed that the form of capital formation, rather than its absolute value, appears to matter to the question of why has growth not trickle down to the poor. Thus, economic growth policies that promote an increase in income in conjunction with a high rates of employment growth are more effective in combating poverty than those that focus only on average income levels.