Prof. Roy Sembel
IPMI International business school, Graduate Program, Faculty Member
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Penyelenggaraan Pengabdian pada Masyarakat (PpM) ini memiliki tujuan yaitu untuk memberikan pedoman, sebagai bahan referensi, membuka pemikiran, dan pemahaman pengelolaan keuangan serta investasi di situasi yang tidak pasti dalam masa... more
Penyelenggaraan Pengabdian pada Masyarakat (PpM) ini memiliki tujuan yaitu untuk memberikan pedoman, sebagai bahan referensi, membuka pemikiran, dan pemahaman pengelolaan keuangan serta investasi di situasi yang tidak pasti dalam masa pandemi COVID-19 serta menjadikan pembelajaran di masa atau kondisi pandemi saat ini. Penyebaran COVID-19 telah mengakibatkan terjadinya perlambatan perekonomian.Keadaan ini menyadarkan kita bahwa sangat penting untuk mempunyai dana darurat. Oleh karena itu, tetaplah berinvestasi. Kita harus bisa membedakan mana yang menjadi keinginan dan kebutuhan, setelah itu pastikan untuk memprioritaskan yang menjadi kebutuhan bukan keinginan. Kecerdasan finansial sangat penting untuk dimiliki setiap orang, agar mampu dalam memberdayakan uang dan menempatkan uang secara tepat.
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This study investigates the relationship between performance evaluation systems and budget gaming behavior. Specifically, it examines the mediating role of organizational politics and procedural fairness. Data collection was conducted by... more
This study investigates the relationship between performance evaluation systems and budget gaming behavior. Specifically, it examines the mediating role of organizational politics and procedural fairness. Data collection was conducted by a questionnaire survey of managers of go-public manufacturing companies in Indonesia. Based on a sample of 128 responses, the partial least squares results indicate that general political behavior, the politics of pay and promotion policies, and procedural fairness significantly mediate the non-financial measures and budget gaming relationship. In contrast, the results indicate that the mediating effects of organizational politics and procedural fairness on the relationship between relative performance measures and budget gaming behavior are generally insignificant. This study supports the goal setting theory and the organizational justice theory, and contributes to the management control system literature by recognizing the importance of performanc...
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Research Interests: Manajemen and Pariwisata
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Buku ini merupakan kumpulan artikel praktis dan populer tentang konsep, aplikasi dan tips manajemen ekonomi baru. Topik pembahasannya meliputi: ekonomi baru secara umum; ekonomi baru dari sudut pandang fungsional manajemen (pemasaran,... more
Buku ini merupakan kumpulan artikel praktis dan populer tentang konsep, aplikasi dan tips manajemen ekonomi baru. Topik pembahasannya meliputi: ekonomi baru secara umum; ekonomi baru dari sudut pandang fungsional manajemen (pemasaran, strategi, keuangan/ investasi, operasi dan teknologi, pembelajaran dan pengetahuan, sumber daya manusia/ perilaku organisi); serta dilengkapi dengan pandangan ekonomi baru ke depan.276 Ha
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This study analyzes the factors responsible for the lower net interest rate at commercial banks located in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. Data were collected from 35, 10 and 13 commercial banks in Indonesia, Thailand, and the... more
This study analyzes the factors responsible for the lower net interest rate at commercial banks located in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. Data were collected from 35, 10 and 13 commercial banks in Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines, respectively, from 2012 to 2020 using the Fixed effect model. The Simultaneous Equation Model was used to analyze the macroeconomic factors and banks’ specific characteristics towards Loan and Time Deposit rates. The result showed that macroeconomic factors, such as the inflation rate, significantly affect loan and time deposit rates in these countries. In Indonesia, bank competition should be reduced and banks’ stability should be higher to minimize Net Interest Margin Spread (difference between Loan Rate and Deposit Rate). In the Philippines, banks should increase their capital and liquidity. So, they will be more confident and prudent in lowering their NIM. Thailand’s banking industry has unique characteristics with high monopoly power...
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The number of individual investors in Indonesia has continued to grow in recent times and has reached 97.67% of the total investors in Indonesia. Due to this high number, the investment decisions of individual investors should be an... more
The number of individual investors in Indonesia has continued to grow in recent times and has reached 97.67% of the total investors in Indonesia. Due to this high number, the investment decisions of individual investors should be an important benchmark in the movement of Indonesia’s capital market. Investment behavior between individuals is very different and easy to change, but there is a pattern or model that can provide an overview of the activities carried out. Not only psychological factors, but demographic factors are also suspected to be determinants that influence investors’ decisions. The diversity of investment behaviors can be described by stock ownership. In Indonesia, blue-chip stocks are represented in the LQ45 index group. Although investors have different characteristics, their demographics are often used as second references to determine investment behavior. This study aims to determine the investment behavior using four important inherent characteristics of investo...
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The process of initial public offering of a company to the investors called IPO (Initial Public Offering). .At time the company do an IPO, the shares price at IPO was an agreement between the company and its underwriter. The phenomenon... more
The process of initial public offering of a company to the investors called IPO (Initial Public Offering). .At time the company do an IPO, the shares price at IPO was an agreement between the company and its underwriter. The phenomenon that occurs is the shares price at IPO lower than the intrinsic shares price based on valuation, after the shares has been traded on the stock exchange, the phenomenon that occurs is IPO share price lower than the closing price on the first day. The purpose of this research is to create a model of how to set the share price at the time the company will conduct IPO based on intrinsic share price valuation results. The valuation method used is the Price to Earning Ratio. Research carried out on companies that did an IPO in 2000-2014 with a purposive sampling of 240 companies. The results showed there was a difference between intrinsic shares prices based on the valuation and the shares price that set at the time of IPO. After the shares listed in the se...
There are some anomalies happenning when the shares are traded in the secondary market or stock exchange. When the shares price at the secondary market is higher than the primary market, then we say that there is a positive initial return... more
There are some anomalies happenning when the shares are traded in the secondary market or stock exchange. When the shares price at the secondary market is higher than the primary market, then we say that there is a positive initial return or underpricing happened. The opposite is negative initial return or overpricing. The purpose of this research is to to study whether the underwriter’s reputation, auditor’s reputation, value of the share offering, percentage of the share offering, and earnings per share towards the IPO price influence the one day initial return, one month return, and one year return after the IPO. The objects of the research are 92 companies that went public through the Jakarta stock exchange market during 1999-2005 that had either positive or negative initial return. This research is done using multiple regression analysis with F Test, t Test, R2 Test, and classic assumption testing. The result indicates that only the value of the share offering variable that sig...
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Page 1. IPO ANOMALIES, TRUNCATED EXCESS SUPPLY, AND HETEROGENEOUS INFORMATION Roy HM Sembel JMKatz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh Comments and suggestions are welcome. ...
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This paper empirically examines the macroeconomic factors that affect the rental rates and selling prices of office space. The data are in the form of quarterly time series which are used for the period of 1996: 1 to 2012: 4 period. In... more
This paper empirically examines the macroeconomic factors that affect the rental rates and selling prices of office space. The data are in the form of quarterly time series which are used for the period of 1996: 1 to 2012: 4 period. In addition, quantitative methods in the form of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) are also used in this study. The results showed that there is a long-term relationship between macroeconomic variables with the rental rate and selling prices of office space. IRF and FEVD showed that the rental rates and selling prices responded permanently to the shocks that occured on macroeconomic variables. Moreover, the rental rate is predominantly influenced by the rental rate followed by the service sector employment, the selling price, exchange rate, inflation, interest rates and economic growth. Conversely, the selling price is predominantly influenced by the rental rate followed by service sector employment, the exchange rate, economic growth, the selling pri...
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: The process of initial public offering of a company to the investors called IPO (Initial Public Offering). .At time the company do an IPO, the shares price at IPO was an agreement between the company and its underwriter. The phenomenon... more
: The process of initial public offering of a company to the investors called IPO (Initial Public Offering). .At time the company do an IPO, the shares price at IPO was an agreement between the company and its underwriter. The phenomenon that occurs is the shares price at IPO lower than the intrinsic shares price based on valuation, after the shares has been traded on the stock exchange, the phenomenon that occurs is IPO share price lower than the closing price on the first day. The purpose of this research is to create a model of how to set the share price at the time the company will conduct IPO based on intrinsic share price valuation results. The valuation method used is the Price to Earning Ratio. Research carried out on companies that did an IPO in 2000 - 2014 with a purposive sampling of 240 companies. The results showed there was a difference between intrinsic shares prices based on the valuation and the shares price that set at the time of IPO. After the shares listed in th...
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Nescinece of the winning probability of selling option on crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) may be one cause of lack of research on selling options whereas option on WTI trading on NYMEX now becomes one of the largest trading in the... more
Nescinece of the winning probability of selling option on crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) may be one cause of lack of research on selling options whereas option on WTI trading on NYMEX now becomes one of the largest trading in the world. The study of selling option is much less than buying option, so that people are less familiar to selling option performance probability. This study aims to analyze winning probability of the monthly return of selling option on WTI. The monthly return of selling option premium data was analyzed by the Black Scholes Option Pricing Method using daily WTI price data ranging from April 1984 to May 2017. It employs the runs test as non parametric statistical and one-sample proportion test as parametric statistical method. Empirical results indicate that winning probability of selling option on WTI at the far out of the money strikes is better than at the in the money position strikes. Keywords: Selling option, WTI, probability, randomness, proportion
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Abstract: This paper empirically examines microeconomic factors that influence rental ratesand selling prices of office space. Quarterly time series data is used for the period of 1996:1to 2012:4. In addition, quantitative methods in the... more
Abstract: This paper empirically examines microeconomic factors that influence rental ratesand selling prices of office space. Quarterly time series data is used for the period of 1996:1to 2012:4. In addition, quantitative methods in the form of vector error correction model(VECM) are also used in this study. The result showed that there is a long term relationshipbetween microeconomic variables with the rental rate and selling price. IRF and FEVDshowed that rental rates and selling prices, in general, responded permanently to the shocksof microeconomic variables. Rental rate is predominantly influenced by rental rate followedby selling price, office space stock, construction cost and vacancy rate. Conversely, sellingprice is predominantly affected by rental rate followed by selling price, office space stock,construction cost and vacancy rate. Investors and developers can use the results of this studyas one of approaches for market analysis, especially office market analysis. Keywor...
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The aim of this study was to understand whether the company’s fundamental factors through liquidity ratio, asset management ratio, profitability ratio, debt management ratio and market value ratio, specifically represented by current... more
The aim of this study was to understand whether the company’s fundamental factors through liquidity ratio, asset management ratio, profitability ratio, debt management ratio and market value ratio, specifically represented by current ratio, Total Assets Turnover (TATO), Return on Assets (ROA), Debt to Equity ratio (DER) and Earnings per Share (EPS) yield; market return and macroeconomic factors (Gross Domestic Product, interest rate, exchange rate) affect the stock return of Consumer Goods companies’ listed in BEI period 2009-2018. There were various former studies did to correlate stock return with financial ratios or macroeconomic partially. This study was done to understand the effect of the stock return with both company’s factors and macroeconomic factors, partially and simultaneously. This study used quantitative approach, in the area of Consumer Goods companies listed in BEI during period of the research, covering 23 companies that represented 84% of Consumer Goods market cap...
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This research aim is to create the measurement index of the quality of FSLG, using data from APRGE, Notes to FSLG, and ICS. APRGE has many indicators, but the relevant ones are AIS, Competence, Performance, and GGG. The measurement index... more
This research aim is to create the measurement index of the quality of FSLG, using data from APRGE, Notes to FSLG, and ICS. APRGE has many indicators, but the relevant ones are AIS, Competence, Performance, and GGG. The measurement index sourced from APRGE is calculated from the percentage of performance achievement of every indicators. 35 main and 7 conditional indicators are taken from the Notes to FSLG. The ICS has 101 indicators. Samples are 25 Local Governments of provinces, cities, and municipals since 2015 to 2018. Software E-Views 8 is used for statistical computation. The output of the measurement index is the FSLG quality assessment category. The index can be used to measure the quality of FSLG produced by Local Governments. The results of statistical testing show that Competence and GGG affect the Quality of FSLG. Meanwhile, AIS and Performance do not. However, AIS and Performance can still be used to measure the Quality of FSLG. AIS is a primary need that cannot be left ...
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Performance of economy can be measured by several indicators, such as, real GDP growth rate, interest rate, inflation rate, and exchange rate. These variables can in turn have impacts on the returns of securities. The performance of a... more
Performance of economy can be measured by several indicators, such as, real GDP growth rate, interest rate, inflation rate, and exchange rate. These variables can in turn have impacts on the returns of securities. The performance of a firm is also influenced by these macroeconomic variables. It is imperative that firms should be aware of these elements to manage the effect on its future cash flows and profitability. This study examines the effect of changes in currency exchange rate of IDR versus USD, rates of real GDP growth, inflation, and interest on the stock performance of LQ45 companies at IDX from 2008-2018. The research designs used in this study are cross-sectional, time-series, and event study method. To have a more reliable result, these data undergone several tests, which are descriptive statistics, normality, auto correlation, multicollinearity, regression, Ftest, and t-test. The result of this study showed that the currency exchange rate of IDR versus USD, the rates of...
This research present call option value calculation using stock as a basic asset that joint in stock option contract on the Jakarta Stock Exchange. The purpose of this research is to prove whether investment on stock option will produce... more
This research present call option value calculation using stock as a basic asset that joint in stock option contract on the Jakarta Stock Exchange. The purpose of this research is to prove whether investment on stock option will produce profit, loss, or even point, if compare to investment on free risk interest instrument. In this research, a limitation is done on European Call option value calculation from stock on stock option contract with 1 month deadline term. Call option calculation will be done using Black Scholes Option Pricing Model method. The research result show that investment on stock call option of stock option contract will give a bigger profit more than investment on free risk interest instrument.
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Capital structure is a mix of debts and equities used by company to finance its investment. Debt offers benefit of tax shield from interest expenses that can be deducted in calculating company income tax. Unfortunately, company can not... more
Capital structure is a mix of debts and equities used by company to finance its investment. Debt offers benefit of tax shield from interest expenses that can be deducted in calculating company income tax. Unfortunately, company can not use debts in unlimited amount because it will lead to risk of bankrupt. Therefore, company needs to achieve an optimal capital structure which it will optimize the firm value. The purpose of this study is to analyze the difference of capital structure among companies grouped in 8 industry sectors in Indonesia Stock Exchange using parametric and non-parametric model. Data used is 228 public listed companies from group of eight industry sectors. Research finding confirms that financing pattern or capital structure among industry sectors is significantly different. The companies financing pattern of eight industry sectors can be classified into three patterns namely high debt financing (high DER), medium debt financing (medium DER), and low debt financin...
Free cash flow is viewed as performance parameter that’s more promising because it’s more transparent in presenting operational activity, investment, and company’s funding. Besides those advantages, there are two questions: (1) is the... more
Free cash flow is viewed as performance parameter that’s more promising because it’s more transparent in presenting operational activity, investment, and company’s funding. Besides those advantages, there are two questions: (1) is the free cash flow able to become determinant against stockholders’ value and (2) are there other factors which affect it? This study took sample from 184 non-finance companies registered at Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2003 – 2010, using double regression analysis method. The result of this study shows that negative free cash flow, dividend, and leverage has significant influence against stockholders’ value.
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To do some company performance evaluation, a tool is needed. One of tools that is populer now is a company performance measurement based on Economic Value Added (EVA) and Market Value Added (MVA). The research result based on graphic and... more
To do some company performance evaluation, a tool is needed. One of tools that is populer now is a company performance measurement based on Economic Value Added (EVA) and Market Value Added (MVA). The research result based on graphic and correlation coefficient, concluded that EVA and stock price has the same tendency and has strong interest between EVA and stock price, MVA and stock price do not have the same tendency and strong interest, EVA and stock return has the same tendency but donot have strong interest, and MVA and stock return donot have the same tendency but has a strong interest. Based on t-test, EVA and MVA are influencing the stock price but EVA and MVA do not influencing the stock return.
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THE IMPACT OF FUEL SUBSIDY REALLOCATION: THE SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRICES APPROACH Yuventus Effendi PENGARUH KEBIJAKAN MONETER TERHADAP KINERJA SEKTOR INDUSTRI MANUFAKTUR DI INDONESIA Eka Budiyanti DAMPAK PENGGABUNGAN BURSA EFEK JAKARTA DAN BURSA EFEK SURABAYA TERHADAP LIKUIDITAS PERDAGANGAN SAHAM DANmore
In the past decade, the allocation on subsidies spending in the state budget is always significant, in particular the proportion and value of the fuel subsidy which undeniably increases every year. In the 2014 State Budget, the allocation... more
In the past decade, the allocation on subsidies spending in the state budget is always significant, in particular the proportion and value of the fuel subsidy which undeniably increases every year. In the 2014 State Budget, the allocation for the subsidies increased significantly in which more than 50 percent of it is allocated to the fuel subsidy or equivalent to 210 trillion IDR. This study aims to simulate the impact of the fuel subsidy reallocation to the other kind of subsidies such as seed or fertiliser subsidy in the agricultural sector, construction sector, or any other social services sector. This simulation is crucial due to the nature of fuel subsidy which increases every year and it is unequally distributed to the society. Methodology used in this study is a simulation based on the 2008 Social Accounting Matrices (SAM). Two types of analysis are conducted in this study, namely the round by round effect and the Stone multiplier decomposition method. These two types of ana...
Merger and Acquisition (M&A) is a way for companies to grow faster than organic business growth and can be a channel for companies to strengthen their global market position and increase competiteveness. M&A activities in the world have a... more
Merger and Acquisition (M&A) is a way for companies to grow faster than organic business growth and can be a channel for companies to strengthen their global market position and increase competiteveness. M&A activities in the world have a large volume and value of several major commodities such as coal, industrial metal, silver, lead, zinc, copper, steel, aluminum etc. In 2018 (January to December) the total value of M&A transactions for the coal and metal sector reached USD 60 bio with the largest portion in coal commodities and transaction volume of 320 transactions.M&A is one of the strategic options in corporate restructuring activities that can provide more access to companies in increasing profits, market control or market share and increasing competitiveness (competitive advantage) to face the world market which is currently unstoppable.In this study, the problem to be answered is what are the theories behind the occurrence of M&A and also previous research that has been done...
Pasar modal di Indonesia telah berkembang menjadi suatu lembaga keuangan yang memiliki peran strategis dalam pembangunan ekonomi. Kebijakan penggabungan ( merger ) pasar modal merupakan peristiwa bersejarah dalam perkembangan sektor... more
Pasar modal di Indonesia telah berkembang menjadi suatu lembaga keuangan yang memiliki peran strategis dalam pembangunan ekonomi. Kebijakan penggabungan ( merger ) pasar modal merupakan peristiwa bersejarah dalam perkembangan sektor keuangan dan investasi di Indonesia. Penggabungan lembaga pasar modal Bursa Efek Jakarta (BEJ) dan Bursa Efek Surabaya (BES) ke dalam satu bursa yang disebut Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), memiliki dampak yang luar biasa pada likuiditas perdagangan saham dan kinerja rasio keuangan. Penelitian ini membahas kondisi pasar saham dan kinerja rasio keuangan sebelum dan sesudah penggabungan. Metode yang digunakan untuk menganalisis kondisi likuiditas perdagangan saham sebelum dan setelah penggabungan adalah (1) analisis variasi, (2) analisis kinerja rasio keuangan yang meliputi CR, OIOR, OEOR, NPM, ROE, ROA, TATO, dan EPS, dan (3) analisis faktor dengan pendekatan OLS. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa penggabungan pasar modal berdampak pada (1) likuiditas perdagan...
The purpose of this research is to test the Trade-Off Theory of capital structure in public listed Indonesian companies by using Partial Adjustment Model. The model is applied to a specific balance panel data from 228 companies by using... more
The purpose of this research is to test the Trade-Off Theory of capital structure in public listed Indonesian companies by using Partial Adjustment Model. The model is applied to a specific balance panel data from 228 companies by using different regression techniques; Pooled Least Square (PLS), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Findings of the research are Indonesian companies adjust their capital structures towards an unobservable target at the speed of 43.79% a year. It means that Indonesian companies need around 2 years and 3 months to adjust their existing capital structure toward a target. This finding supports the advantages of Trade-Off Theory over the Pecking Order Theory. This paper also highlights the long term parameter of dynamic model of capital structure and the determinants of capital structure.
Ketika pertama sekali buku ini diterbitkan pada tahun 2001, tidak pernah terbayang perkembangan reksa dana akan secepat dan sesemarak saat ini. Dalam kurun wak-— tu 6 tahun setelah penerbitan buku ini, begitu banyak peristiwa dramatis... more
Ketika pertama sekali buku ini diterbitkan pada tahun 2001, tidak pernah terbayang perkembangan reksa dana akan secepat dan sesemarak saat ini. Dalam kurun wak-— tu 6 tahun setelah penerbitan buku ini, begitu banyak peristiwa dramatis yang menandai pasang surut waha-na ...
This study were quantitative, cross sectional, and explanatory research using primary and secondary data analysis, the research background was the fact that in 2018 cellular telco industries experienced revenue decline for the first time... more
This study were quantitative, cross sectional, and explanatory research using primary and secondary data analysis, the research background was the fact that in 2018 cellular telco industries experienced revenue decline for the first time in history. PT Indosat Ooredoo as the three biggest players experienced the worst decline, the company not only experienced a decline in revenue but also a decline in profits and market share. The company experienced the decline of market share from 21 % in 2015 to 17 % in 2018, apart from that the company also had unfavorable profitability during 2014 until 2015 the company just two times booked positive P and L, the rest were losing. Based on above background the problem statements in this research were what is the financial of PT Indosat Ooredoo and how is the effects of 4Ps marketing mix that consist of Product(P1), Price(P2), Place(P3), and Promotion (P4) on PT Indosat Ooredoo’s Market share seen from the perspective of the outlet. The objectiv...
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This study is driven by the phenomenon of earnings indicators that can mislead investors due to managers' personal interests. As a result, investors would seek alternative earnings through analysts serving as intermediaries, referred... more
This study is driven by the phenomenon of earnings indicators that can mislead investors due to managers' personal interests. As a result, investors would seek alternative earnings through analysts serving as intermediaries, referred to as street earnings. Street earnings are considered more predictive, informative, and more likely to be used to assess firm value. Furthermore, non-financial information from the corporation can affect street earnings. As a result, this study attempts to determine whether street earnings affect firm value while also determining whether it can mediate the relationship between non-financial information on firms with firm value. This analysis makes use of 392 observations from manufacturing firms between 2015 and 2020. SPSS 25 and the Sobel test are used to conduct data analysis. One of the three hypothesis is proven, namely that research and development activities directly and indirectly affect street earnings and firm value. If street earnings can ...
This study aims to examine how to reduce MSME Non Performing Loans, especially in developing countries by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The sample of this research is Bank DKI (11 clusters) in DKI Jakarta Province. The... more
This study aims to examine how to reduce MSME Non Performing Loans, especially in developing countries by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The sample of this research is Bank DKI (11 clusters) in DKI Jakarta Province. The data used are quarterly with the period January 2014 – December 2018. There are two methods used, namely regression test to determine the factors; and an Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) was used to develop the strategy. The results of this study indicate that the Non-Performing Loans (NPL) of MSMEs can best be reduced by restructuring and intensive collection. Restructuring can be done by rescheduling and reconditioning where both can be done separately or simultaneously. Restructuring can be effective if followed by intensive collection by means of periodic billing with a short time frame so that customers know the seriousness of the matter, to convert a problematic loan back to good status.
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There are some anomalies happenning when the shares are traded in the secondary market or stock exchange. When the shares price at the secondary market is higher than the primary market, then we say that there is a positive initial return... more
There are some anomalies happenning when the shares are traded in the secondary market or stock exchange. When the shares price at the secondary market is higher than the primary market, then we say that there is a positive initial return or underpricing happened. The opposite is negative initial return or overpricing. The purpose of this research is to to study whether the underwriter's reputation, auditor's reputation, value of the share offering, percentage of the share offering, and earnings per share towards the IPO price influence the one day initial return, one month return, and one year return after the IPO. The objects of the research are 92 companies that went public through the Jakarta stock exchange market during 1999-2005 that had either positive or negative initial return. This research is done using multiple regression analysis with F Test, t Test, R 2 Test, and classic assumption testing. The result indicates that only the value of the share offering variable...