Civil Engineering

This study evaluates the health risks in megacities in terms of mortality and morbidity due to air pollution. A new spreadsheet model, Risk of Mortality/Morbidity due to Air Pollution (Ri-MAP), is used to estimate the excess numbers of deaths and illnesses. By adopting the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline concentrations for the air pollutants SO2, NO2 and total suspended particles (TSP), concentration-response relationships and a population attributable-risk proportion concept are employed. Results suggest that some megacities like Los Angeles, New York, Osaka Kobe, Sao Paulo and Tokyo have very low excess cases in total mortality from these pollutants. In contrast, the approximate numbers of cases is highest in Karachi (15,000/yr) characterized by a very high concentration of total TSP (670 μg m−3). Dhaka (7000/yr), Beijing (5500/yr), Karachi (5200/yr), Cairo (5000/yr) and Delhi (3500/yr) rank highest with cardiovascular mortality. The morbidity (hospital admissions) due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) follows the tendency of cardiovascular mortality. Dhaka and Karachi lead the rankings, having about 2100/yr excess cases, while Osaka-Kobe (20/yr) and Sao Paulo (50/yr) are at the low end of all megacities considered. Since air pollution is increasing in many megacities, and our database of measured pollutants is limited to the period up to 2000 and does not include all relevant components (e.g. O3), these numbers should be interpreted as lower limits. South Asian megacities most urgently need improvement of air quality to prevent excess mortality and morbidity due to exceptionally high levels of air pollution. The risk estimates obtained from Ri-MAP present a realistic baseline evaluation for the consequences of ambient air pollution in comparison to simple air quality indices, and can be expanded and improved in parallel with the development of air pollution monitoring networks.

Environmental Risk Analysis: Problems and Perspectives in Different Countries Bhola Ram Gurjar and Manju Mohan* Introduction A number of industrial accidents, such as those at Flixborough in 1974, Seveso in 1976, Bhopal in 1984, and Pasadena in 1989, have led to growing ...

2 Air Pollution Monitoring and Source Characterization Anita Lakhani, Rajasekhar Balasubramanian, and Bhola R. Gurjar Contents 2.1 Introduction................................................... ................................................. 20 2.2 Objectives of Air Pollution Monitoring................................. ...

Megacities and other major population centers represent large, concentrated sources of anthropogenic pollutants to the atmosphere, with consequences for both local air quality and for regional and global atmospheric chemistry. The tradeoffs between the regional buildup of pollutants near their sources versus long-range export depend on meteorological characteristics which vary as a function of geographical location and season. Both horizontal and vertical transport contribute to pollutant export, and the overall degree of export is strongly governed by the lifetimes of pollutants. We provide a first quantification of these tradeoffs and the main factors influencing them in terms of "regional pollution potentials", metrics based on simulations of representative tracers using the 3-D global model MATCH (Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry). The tracers have three different lifetimes (1, 10, and 100 days) and are emitted from 36 continental large point sources. Several key features of the export characteristics emerge. For instance, long-range near-surface pollutant export is generally strongest in the middle and high latitudes, especially for source locations in Eurasia, for which 17-34% of a tracer with a 10-day lifetime is exported beyond 1000 km and still remains below 1 km altitude. On the other hand, pollutant export to the upper troposphere is greatest in the tropics, due to transport by deep convection, and for six source locations, more than 50% of the total mass of the 10-day lifetime tracer is found above 5 km altitude. Furthermore, not only are there order of magnitude interregional differences, such as between low and high latitudes, but also often substantial intraregional differences, which we discuss in light of the regional meteorological characteristics. We also contrast the roles of horizontal dilution and vertical mixing in reducing the pollution buildup in the regions including and surrounding the sources. For some regions such as Eurasia, dilution due to long-range horizontal transport governs the local and regional pollution buildup; however, on a global basis, differences in vertical mixing are dominant in determining the pollution buildup both around and further downwind of the source locations.

Toxic or hazardous substances pose two types of risks in the environment, namely `short-term or acute risk' and `long-termor chronic risk'. The short-term risk is associated with the one-time acute exposure to potentially hazardous substancesaccidentally released in the environment, whereas the long-termrisk is resulted from continuous exposure to potentially harmfulsubstances present in different environmental media. This articledeals with the assessment of potential health risks related to certain carcinogens and non-carcinogens (e.g. cadmium, chromiumand nickel) present in three environmental media, viz. air, waterand food in different Indian states (regions). Appropriate dose-response models have been identified and used for this purpose with the assumptions and input data as per the Indian context. Mean values of ambient air concentration levels of Cd,Cr and Ni have been used to estimate the individual and societalrisks of extra cancer in different states of India. The hazardquotients and hazard index representing the non-carcinogenic chronic health effects caused by chromium and cadmium due to their long-term exposure through water and food have also beenestimated. The risk results have been compared with the diseasesurveillance data. A definite correlation between the estimatedrisk results and the reported number of lung cancer cases and chronic liver diseases have been observed in different regions. As a matter of fact, it is not possible to derive precise risk estimates due to various uncertainties included both in availabledata and in the models which are used to calculate potency factors and effective concentration. However, average risk levelsas estimated and presented in this article are quite useful forplanning purposes.

Delhi is one of the many megacities struggling with punishing levels of pollution from industrial, residential, and transportation sources. Over the years, pollution abatement in Delhi has become an important constituent of state policies. In the past one decade a lot of policies and regulations have been implemented which have had a noticeable effect on pollution levels. In this context, air quality models provide a powerful tool to study the impact of development plans on the expected air pollution levels and thus aid the regulating and planning authorities in decision-making process. In air quality modeling, emissions in the modeling domain at regular interval are one of the most important inputs. From the annual emission data of over a decade (1990–2000), emission inventory is prepared for the megacity Delhi. Four criteria pollutants namely, CO, SO2, PM, and NOx are considered and a gridded emission inventory over Delhi has been prepared taking into account land use pattern, population density, traffic density, industrial areas, etc. A top down approach is used for this purpose. Emission isopleths are drawn and annual emission patterns are discussed mainly for the years 1990, 1996 and 2000. Primary and secondary areas of emission hotspots are identified and emission variations discussed during the study period. Validation of estimated values is desired from the available data. There is a direct relationship of pollution levels and emission strength in a given area. Hence, an attempt has been made to validate the emission inventory for all criteria pollutants by analyzing emissions in various sampling zones with the ambient pollution levels. For validation purpose, the geographical region encompassing the study area (Delhi) has been divided into seven emission zones as per the air quality monitoring stations using Voronoi polygon concept. Dispersion modeling is also used for continuous elevated sources to have the contributing emissions at the ground level to facilitate validation. A good correlation between emission estimates and concentration has been found. Correlation coefficient of 0.82, 0.77, 0.58 and 0.68 for CO, SO2, PM and NOx respectively shows a reasonably satisfactory performance of the present estimates.

Megacities and other major population centers represent important, concentrated sources of anthropogenic pollutants to the atmosphere, with consequences for both local air quality and for regional and global atmospheric chemistry. The tradeoff between the regional buildup of pollutants near their sources versus long-range export depends on meteorological characteristics which vary as a function of geographical location and season. Both horizontal and vertical transport contribute to pollutant export, and the overall degree of export is strongly governed by the chemical lifetimes of pollutants. We provide a first quantification of this tradeoff and the main factors influencing it in terms of "regional pollution potentials", metrics based on simulations of artificial, representative tracers using the 3-D global model MATCH (Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry). The tracers have three different lifetimes (1, 10, and 100 days) and are emitted from 36 continental point sources representing the 30 current largest cities around the world plus 6 additional major population centers. Several key features of the export characteristics emerge: 1) long-range near-surface pollutant export is generally strongest in the middle and high latitudes, especially for source locations in Eurasia; 2) on the other hand, pollutant export to the upper troposphere is greatest in the tropics, due to transport by deep convection; 3) not only are there order of magnitude interregional differences, such as between low and high latitudes, but also often substantial intraregional differences, for instance between the sources in western India and Pakistan versus eastern India and Bangladesh; 4) contrary to what one might initially expect, efficient long-range export does not necessarily correspond with a more significant dilution of pollutants near their source, rather the amount of low-level, long-range export (e.g., below 1 km and beyond 1000 km) is well-correlated with exceedences of surface density thresholds on regional scales near the source (e.g., within ~1000 km), implying that pollutant buildup to high densities in the surface layer of the region surrounding the source location is more strongly influenced by vertical than horizontal transport.

We examine the representation of emissions from megacities in three global anthropogenic emission inventories. Despite the many common sources of data between the inventories, and the similarities in their construction methodologies, there are some very large differences (often a factor of two) between the emissions for individual cities, even when the total global emissions are very similar. We find that the geographical distribution of the emissions within countries plays a larger role in explaining the differences between the ...