[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/9019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Globalization and Changing Patterns in the International Transmission of Shocks in Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Antu Panini Murshid
Abstract
In this paper we compare various characteristics of the cross-country transmission of shocks in the financial markets of both advanced and emerging countries during two periods of globalization -- the pre-World War I classical gold standard era, 1880-1914, and the post-Bretton Woods era, 1975-2000. Based on principal components analysis on monthly spreads on long-term sovereign bond yields and on an EMP measure of currency crises, an index of global stress, and impulse response functions from VARs estimated using weekly data on short-term interest rates, we conclude that financial market shocks were more globalized before 1914 compared to the present. We postulate that this difference in systemic stability between the two eras of globalization reflects factors such as strong cross-country interdependence fostered through links to gold, the growing financial maturity of advanced countries, and the widening of the center to include a more diverse group of countries spanning several regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo & Antu Panini Murshid, 2002. "Globalization and Changing Patterns in the International Transmission of Shocks in Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 9019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9019
    Note: DAE IFM ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9019.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/645 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Paolo Mauro & Nathan Sussman & Yishay Yafeh, 2002. "Emerging Market Spreads: Then versus Now," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 695-733.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 121-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    7. Bordo, Michael D. & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2006. "Globalization and changing patterns in the international transmission of shocks in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 655-674, June.
    8. Eichengreen Barry, 2002. "International Financial Crises: Is the Problem Growing?," Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, De Gruyter, vol. 43(1), pages 89-104, June.
    9. Michael D. Bordo & Antu P. Murshid, 2000. "Are Financial Crises Becoming Increasingly More Contagious? What is the Historical Evidence on Contagion?," NBER Working Papers 7900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bordo, Michael D. & Rockoff, Hugh, 1996. "The Gold Standard as a “Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval”," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 389-428, June.
    11. Taylor, Mark & Mody, Ashoka, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 52-82.
    13. Larry D. Neal & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2003. "Crises in the Global Economy from Tulips to Today," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 473-514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. repec:bla:scandj:v:98:y:1996:i:4:p:463-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Marc Flandreau & Jacques Le Cacheux & Frédéric Zumer, 1998. "Stability without a pact? Lessons from the European gold standard, 1880—1914," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 116-162.
    16. Frédéric Zumer & Jacques Le Cacheux & Marc Flandreau, 1998. "Stability without a pact? Lessons from the European Gold Standard, 1880-1913," Working Papers hal-01037858, HAL.
    17. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
    18. Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195101133.
    19. N/A, 1996. "Events," Psychology and Developing Societies, , vol. 8(2), pages 287-288, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marc Flandreau & Juan H. Flores & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2010. "The End of Gatekeeping: Underwriters and the Quality of Sovereign Bond Markets, 1815–2007," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 53-92, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Volosovych, Vadym, 2011. "Measuring financial market integration over the long run: Is there a U-shape?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1535-1561.
    3. Barry Eichengreen, 2004. "Viewpoint: Understanding the Great Depression," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 1-27, February.
    4. Taylor, Mark & Mody, Ashoka, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & David Leblang, 2003. "Capital account liberalization and growth: was Mr. Mahathir right?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 205-224.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & Marc Flandreau, 2003. "Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Globalization," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 417-472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2007. "The Baring Crisis and the Great Latin American Meltdown of the 1890s," NBER Working Papers 13403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2009. "Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 188-200, March.
    9. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    10. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    11. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
    12. Tunçer, Coşkun, 2012. "Monetary sovereignty during the classical gold standard era: the Ottoman Empire and Europe, 1880-1913," Economic History Working Papers 44725, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    13. Gus, Garita & Chen, Zhou, 2011. "Averting Currency Crises: The Pros and Cons of Financial Openness," MPRA Paper 30218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Flandreau, Marc & Zumer, Frederic & Accominotti, Olivier & Rezzik, Riad, 2008. "Black Man?s Burden: Measured Philanthropy in the British Empire, 1880-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 6811, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Kramer, Bert S. & Milionis, Petros, 2022. "Democratic constraints and adherence to the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. Luis A. V. Catão, 2007. "Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look," NBER Chapters, in: The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises, pages 243-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Fabrizio Coricelli & Zorobabel Bicaba, 2015. "Learning to open up: Capital account liberalizations in the post-Bretton Woods era," Working Papers halshs-01267264, HAL.
    18. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Lestano,, 2015. "The internationalisation of financial crises: Banking and currency crises 1883–2008," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 29-47.
    19. Barry Eichengreen & Michael D. Bordo, 2003. "Crises now and then: what lessons from the last era of financial globalization?," Chapters, in: Paul Mizen (ed.), Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Dungey, M. & Jacobs, J.P.A.M. & Lestano, L., 2010. "The internationalisation of financial crises," Research Report 10002, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.