[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aoz/wpaper/292.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Debt Always Harmful for Economic Growth? Evidence from Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Mara Leticia Rojas

    (UNS-CONICET)

  • María María Ibáñez Martín

    (UNS-CONICET)

  • Carlos Dabús

    (UNS-CONICET)

Abstract
The debate on damage risks of high levels of debt on long run economic performance is not new. Nonetheless, this has achieved increasing interest during the last decades because of several countries and regions have acquired high indebtedness, particularly those with doubtful capacity of repayment. The study of a non-linear relationship between both macroeconomic variables and the value (or values) at which the incidence of debt could change sign at said threshold are relevant issues for the performance of economies, the economic policy and, even, the debt payment. This paper uses a panel threshold regression model, with initial real per capita GDP and debt-to-exports ratio as threshold variables, in order to prove heterogeneous effects of debt on growth in developing countries. The results show that the effect of debt depends on both threshold variables. Higher levels of initial GDP are related to negative effects of debt on growth, the relation between debt and growth tends to be insignificant for medium values and exhibits a positive relation to low values of product. Furthermore, debt-to-exports ratio exhibits a single turning point beyond which debt seems to be harmed for economic growth. The level of those thresholds is also estimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Mara Leticia Rojas & María María Ibáñez Martín & Carlos Dabús, 2023. "Is Debt Always Harmful for Economic Growth? Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers 292, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    • Handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:292
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rednie.eco.unc.edu.ar/files/DT/292.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    2. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They’re Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship between Debt and Growth," Discussion Papers 2013/10, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    3. Ms. Hélène Poirson & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2004/015, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    5. Mr. Tito Cordella & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2005. "Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt-Growth Link," IMF Working Papers 2005/223, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    7. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    9. Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Damiano Sandri & John Simon, 2014. "Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold?," IMF Working Papers 2014/034, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Qunyong Wang, 2015. "Fixed-effect panel threshold model using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 15(1), pages 121-134, March.
    11. Michael Ash & Deepankar Basu & Arindrajit Dube, 2017. "Public Debt and Growth : An Assessment of Key Findings on Causality and Thresholds," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2017-10, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    12. Sailesh Tanna & Chengchun Li & Glauco De Vita, 2018. "The role of external debt in the foreign direct investment–growth relationship," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 393-412, October.
    13. Alfred Greiner, 2011. "Economic Growth, Public Debt and Welfare: Comparing Three Budgetary Rules," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(2), pages 205-222, May.
    14. Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2017. "Threshold Effects of Debt on Economic Growth in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 471-484, September.
    15. Myung Hwan Seo & Sueyoul Kim & Young-Joo Kim, 2019. "Estimation of dynamic panel threshold model using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 19(3), pages 685-697, September.
    16. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    17. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    18. Deshpande, Ashwini, 1997. "The debt overhang and the disincentive to invest," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 169-187, February.
    19. Alexandru Minea & Antoine Parent, 2012. "Is High Public Debt Always Harmful to Economic Growth? Reinhart and Rogoff and some complex nonlinearities," Working Papers 12-08, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    20. Mr. Suman S Basu & Ms. Emine Boz & Ms. Gita Gopinath & Mr. Francisco Roch & Ms. Filiz D Unsal, 2020. "A Conceptual Model for the Integrated Policy Framework," IMF Working Papers 2020/121, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Monterubbianesi, Pablo Daniel & Rojas, Mara Leticia & Dabús, Carlos Darío, 2021. "Educación y salud: evidencia de efectos umbral en el crecimiento económico," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue No. 94, pages 195-231, January.
    22. Andrew M. Fischer, 2018. "Debt and development in historical perspective: The external constraints of late industrialisation revisited through South Korea and Brazil," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3359-3378, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Law, Siong Hook & Ng, Chee Hung & Kutan, Ali M. & Law, Zhi Kei, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 26-40.
    2. Bitar, Nicholas & Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2018. "Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 614-620.
    3. İbrahim Özmen & Mihai Mutascu, 2024. "Public Debt and Growth: New Insights," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8706-8736, June.
    4. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    5. Taner Turan & Halit Yanıkkaya, 2021. "External debt, growth and investment for developing countries: some evidence for the debt overhang hypothesis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(3), pages 319-341, September.
    6. Haytham Y.M. Ewaida, 2017. "The Impact of Sovereign Debt on Growth: An Empirical Study on GIIPS versus JUUSD Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 607-633.
    7. Patrick VILLIEU & Maxime MENUET & Alexandru MINEA, 2015. "Deficit Rules and Monetization in a Growth Model with Multiplicity and Indeterminacy," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2294, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    8. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    9. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    10. Ahmed MAAROUFI & Ghazi BOULILA, 2021. "Non-linear effect of public debt on economic growth: The case of Tunisia," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(629), W), pages 121-134, Winter.
    11. Cândida Ferreira, 2016. "Debt and Economic Growth in the European Union: A Panel Granger Causality Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 22(2), pages 131-149, May.
    12. Cândida Ferreira, 2014. "Debt and economic growth in the European Union: what causes what?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/08, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. Ikonen, Pasi, 2017. "Financial depth, debt, and growth," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number e51, July.
    14. Goldberg, Andrew & Romalis, John, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth in U.S. States," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    15. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They’re Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship between Debt and Growth," Discussion Papers 2013/10, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    16. Ehrhart, Hélène & Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2014. "Debt, seigniorage, and the Growth Laffer Curve in developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-210.
    17. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:189-198 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Adewale Hassan & Daniel Meyer, 2021. "Exploring the Channels of Transmission between External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, April.
    19. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Does Public Debt Impact Economic Growth in Zambia? An Ardl-Bounds Testing Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(4), pages 53-73, October-D.
    20. Shahrzad Ghourchian & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2020. "Government consumption, government debt and economic growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 589-605, May.
    21. Walid BENAYED & Foued Badr GABSI & Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2015. "Threshold Effect of Public Debt on Domestic Investment: Evidence from Selected African Countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 189-198, Winter.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DEBT; ECONOMIC GROWTH; DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; NON-LINIARITIES;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:292. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Laura Inés D Amato (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/redniar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.