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Mutual fund flows and fluctuations in credit and business cycles

Author

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  • Ben-Rephael, Azi
  • Choi, Jaewon
  • Goldstein, Itay
Abstract
Several measures of credit-market booms are known to precede downturns in real economic activity. We offer an early indicator for all known measures of credit booms. Our measure is based on intra-family flow shifts towards high-yield bond mutual funds. It predicts indicators such as growth in financial intermediary balance sheets, increase in shares of high-yield bond issuers, and downturns of various measures of credit spreads. It also directly predicts the business cycle by positively predicting GDP growth and negatively predicting unemployment. Our results provide support for the investor demand-based narrative of credit cycles and can be useful for policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben-Rephael, Azi & Choi, Jaewon & Goldstein, Itay, 2021. "Mutual fund flows and fluctuations in credit and business cycles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 84-108.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:139:y:2021:i:1:p:84-108
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.07.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Nina Boyarchenko & Richard K. Crump & Anna Kovner & Or Shachar, 2021. "Corporate Bond Market Distress," Staff Reports 957, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Arun Gupta & Horacio Sapriza, 2022. "Do Costly Internal Equity Injections Reveal Bank Expectations about Post-Crisis Real Outcomes?," Working Paper 23-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    3. Iñaki Aldasoro & Peter Hördahl & Sonya Zhu, 2022. "Under pressure: market conditions and stress," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    4. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    5. di Iasio, Giovanni & Kaufmann, Christoph & Wicknig, Florian, 2022. "Macroprudential regulation of investment funds," Working Paper Series 2695, European Central Bank.
    6. Hafiz Muhammad Mushtaq & Kanwal Iqbal Khan & Adeel Nasir & Naheeda Ali, 2022. "Evaluating The Performance Of Islamic And Non-Islamic Mutual Funds: A Comparative Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(1), pages 184-196.
    7. Zhu, Qifei, 2021. "Capital supply and corporate bond issuances: Evidence from mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 551-572.
    8. Darmouni, Olivier & Papoutsi, Melina, 2022. "The rise of bond financing in Europe: five facts about new and small issuers," Working Paper Series 2663, European Central Bank.
    9. Dasgupta, Amil & Choi, Jaewon & Oh, Ji Yeol Jimmy, 2019. "Bond Funds and Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14134, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Pascal François & Stephanie Heck & Georges Hübner & Thomas Lejeune, 2022. "Comoment risk in corporate bond yields and returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 471-512, September.
    11. Dang, Thuy Duong & Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2022. "How do corporate bond investors measure performance? Evidence from mutual fund flows," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    12. Park, Heungju & Sohn, Sungbin, 2021. "Flight to quality and implicit guarantee: Evidence from Chinese trust products," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 399-419.
    13. Kevin Benson & Ing-Haw Cheng & John Hull & Charles Martineau & Yoshio Nozawa & Vasily Strela & Yuntao Wu & Jun Yuan, 2024. "Understanding the Excess Bond Premium," Papers 2412.04063, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit cycle; Business cycle; Mutual fund flows; High-yield bonds; Investor demand; Leading indicator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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