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nicola di cosmo
  • Institute for Advanced Study
    Einstein Drive
    Princeton NJ 08540 USA
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Investigation into the nexus of human-environmental behavior has seen increasing collaboration of archaeologists, historians, and paleo-scientists. However, many studies still lack interdisciplinarity and overlook incompatibilities in... more
Investigation into the nexus of human-environmental behavior has seen increasing collaboration of archaeologists, historians, and paleo-scientists. However, many studies still lack interdisciplinarity and overlook incompatibilities in spatiotemporal scaling of environmental and societal data and their uncertainties. Here, we argue for a strengthened commitment to collaborative work and introduce the "dahliagram" as a tool to analyze and visualize quantitative and qualitative knowledge from diverse disciplinary sources and epistemological backgrounds. On the basis of regional cases of past human mobility in eastern Africa, Inner Eurasia, and the North Atlantic, we develop three dahliagrams that illustrate pull and push factors underlying key phases of population movement across different geographical scales and over contrasting periods of time since the end of the last Ice Age. Agnostic to analytical units, dahliagrams offer an effective tool for interdisciplinary investigation, visualization, and communication of complex human-environmental interactions at a diversity of spatiotemporal scales.
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The notion of China as being endowed with a nonmilitary culture has long colored our under-standing of Chinese history. The belief in the su-periority of civility over bellicosity derives from the traditional contrast between the concepts... more
The notion of China as being endowed with a nonmilitary culture has long colored our under-standing of Chinese history. The belief in the su-periority of civility over bellicosity derives from the traditional contrast between the concepts of wen, understood as literary and civil ...
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... While the Kazakh sultan did not qualify, in the eyes of the Qing authorities, as a bearer of tribute, it would be too sweeping ... The eighth mission included three chiefs: Akhalakci Atiyan, who carried a golden button, of the... more
... While the Kazakh sultan did not qualify, in the eyes of the Qing authorities, as a bearer of tribute, it would be too sweeping ... The eighth mission included three chiefs: Akhalakci Atiyan, who carried a golden button, of the Monggoldor tribe, Akhalakci Aijuli of the Chahar Sayak tribe ...
After a successful conquest of large parts of Syria in 1258 and 1259 CE, the Mongol army lost the battle of c Ayn Jālūt against Mamluks on September 3, 1260 CE. Recognized as a turning point in world history, their sudden defeat triggered... more
After a successful conquest of large parts of Syria in 1258 and 1259 CE, the Mongol army lost the battle of c Ayn Jālūt against Mamluks on September 3, 1260 CE. Recognized as a turning point in world history, their sudden defeat triggered the reconfiguration of strategic alliances and geopolitical power not only in the Middle East, but also across much of Eurasia. Despite decades of research, scholars have not yet reached consensus over the causes of the Mongol reverse. Here, we revisit previous arguments in light of climate and environmental changes in the aftermath of one the largest volcanic forcings in the past 2500 years, the Samalas eruption ~1257 CE. Regional tree ring-based climate reconstructions and state-of-the-art Earth System Model simulations reveal cooler and wetter conditions from spring 1258 to autumn 1259 CE for the eastern Mediterranean/Arabian region. We therefore hypothesize that the post-Samalas climate anomaly and associated environmental variability affected an estimated 120,000 Mongol soldiers and up to half a million of their horses during the conquest. More specifically, we argue that colder and wetter climates in 1258 and 1259 CE, while complicating and slowing the campaign in certain areas, such as the mountainous regions in the Caucasus and Anatolia, also facilitated the assault on Syria between January and March 1260. A return to warmer and dryer conditions in the summer of 1260 CE, however, likely reduced the regional carrying capacity and may therefore have forced a mass withdrawal of the Mongols from the region that contributed to the Mamluks' victory. In pointing to a distinct environmental dependency of the Mongols, we offer a new explanation of their defeat at c Ayn Jālūt, which effectively halted the further expansion of the largest ever land-based empire. Zusammenfassung: Am 3. September des Jahres 1260 n. Chr. unterlagen die berittenen Mongolen erstmals in ihrer überaus erfolgreichen territorialen Westexpansion gegen die von Süden aufmarschierenden Mamluken in der Schlacht von c Ayn Jālūt. Diese Niederlage im heutigen Israel markiert einen welthistorischen Wendepunkt, in Folge dessen das Machtgefüge nicht nur im Mittleren Osten, sondern über ganz Eurasien neukonfiguriert wurde. Gleichwohl der geopolitischen Relevanz und trotz zahlreicher Erklärungsversuche ist es Wissenschaftlern bis heute nicht gelungen, die Niederlage der Mongolen bei cAyn Jālūt überzeugend zu erklären. In der vorliegenden Studie berücksichtigen wir raumzeitlich hochaufgelöste Klima-und Umweltveränderungen nach dem Ausbruch des indonesischen Vulkans Samalas circa 1257 n. Chr. Sowohl die jahrringbasierten Rekonstruktionen, als auch die Klimamodelle deuten auf eine starke Abkühlung und generell feuchtere Bedingungen von 1258 bis 1259 hin. Die durch einen der wohl größten Vulkanausbrüche der letzten 2500 Jahre ausgelösten Klimaschwankungen müssen als wichtiger Faktor für die Verzögerung des Mongolenfeldzuges mit seinen geschätzten 120,000 Kriegern und bis zu einer halben Million Pferden angesehen werden. Kühlere und feuchtere Bedingungen haben demnach die Eroberung weiter Teile Syriens zwischen Frühjahr 1258 und Herbst 1259 begünstigt, wohingegen die Rückkehr zu einem wärmeren und trockeneren Klima im Sommer 1260 n. Chr. die Mongolen schwächte und somit wohl zu ihrer Niederlage bei c Ayn Jālūt beitrug. Unsere Studie verdeutlicht die starke Abhängigkeit der mongolischen Kavallerie von Umweltfaktoren und liefert einen neuen Erklärungsansatz für ihr Scheitern in Syrien, was letztlich eine weitere Expansion der größten Landmacht verhinderte.
Mammalian herbivores are an essential component of grassland and savanna ecosystems, and with feedbacks to the climate system. To date, the response and feedbacks of mammalian herbivores to changes in both abiotic and biotic factors are... more
Mammalian herbivores are an essential component of grassland and savanna ecosystems, and with feedbacks to the climate system. To date, the response and feedbacks of mammalian herbivores to changes in both abiotic and biotic factors are poorly quantified and not adequately represented in the current global land surface modeling framework. In this study, we coupled herbivore population dynamics in a global land model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM 3.0) to simulate populations of horses, cattle, sheep, and goats, and their responses to changes in multiple environmental factors at the site level across different continents during 1980–2010. Simulated results show that the model is capable of reproducing observed herbivore population dynamics across all sites for these animal groups. Our simulation results also indicate that during this period, climate extremes led to a maximum mortality of 27% of the total herbivores in Mongolia. Across all sites, herbivores reduced aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) by 14% and 15%, respectively (p < 0.05). With adequate parame-terization, the model can be used for historical assessment and future prediction of mammalian herbivore populations and their relevant impacts on biogeochemical cycles. Our simulation results demonstrate a strong coupling between primary producers and consumers, indicating that inclusion of herbivores into the global land modeling framework is essential to better understand the potentially large effect of herbivores on carbon cycles in grassland and savanna ecosystems.
The collapse of the Eastern Türk Empire (ETE, ca. 584–630 CE) in 630 CE marked the rise of Tang China as the paramount power on the Silk Road. It was followed by the Tang defeat of the Western Türk Empire in 659 and opened a phase of... more
The collapse of the Eastern Türk Empire (ETE, ca. 584–630 CE) in 630 CE marked the rise of Tang China as the paramount power on the Silk Road. It was followed by the Tang defeat of the Western Türk Empire in 659 and opened a phase of Chinese expansion into central Asia. Climate-induced environmental changes as well as economic and political consequences are mentioned in medieval Chinese records as major factors in the ETE collapse. The role of cooler temperatures has also been discussed in current scholarship. Here, we re-evaluate this question by assessing the available historical sources in the light of a global network of 16 tree-ring chronologies for this period, which reveal distinct summer cooling in the ETE heartland between 626 and 632 CE. Reconstructed peak cooling of up to − 3.4 °C in 627 and 628 CE (relative to the 1961–90 mean climatology) coincided with heavy snowfall and severe frost events in the territory of the ETE. A strong sulfate spike in Greenland ice cores that has been dated circa 626 CE is implicated in the abrupt surface cooling. We argue that the climatic perturbation and associated reduction in vegetation growth and livestock mortality are relevant in understanding the causes of the fall of the ETE but these indirect drivers must be evaluated within a comprehensive analysis of political relations within both the Türk and the Tang leadership. Our study underscores and contextualizes the vulnerability of past nomadic societies to small and episodic climate fluctuations, particularly when coupled with concurrent socioeconomic, political, and demographic changes.
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Environmental Stress and Steppe Nomads: Rethinking the History of the Uyghur Empire (744–840) with Paleoclimate Data Severe, prolonged droughts have been identified as a contributing factor in the decline of complex agricultural polities... more
Environmental Stress and Steppe Nomads: Rethinking the History of the Uyghur Empire (744–840) with Paleoclimate Data Severe, prolonged droughts have been identified as a contributing factor in the decline of complex agricultural polities and civilizations, such as those of the Khmer city of Ankhor, the ancestral Puebloans, and the
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The Mongol invasion of Eastern Europe, and especially its sudden withdrawal from Hungary in 1242 CE, has generated much speculation and an array of controversial theories. None of them, however, considered multifaceted environmental... more
The Mongol invasion of Eastern Europe, and especially its sudden withdrawal from Hungary in 1242 CE, has generated much speculation and an array of controversial theories. None of them, however, considered multifaceted environmental drivers and the coupled analysis of historical reports and natural archives. Here we investigate annually resolved, absolutely dated and spatially explicit paleoclimatic evidence between 1230 and 1250 CE. Documentary sources and tree-ring chronologies reveal warm and dry summers from 1238–1241, followed by cold and wet conditions in early-1242. Marshy terrain across the Hungarian plain most likely reduced pastureland and decreased mobility, as well as the military effectiveness of the Mongol cavalry, while despoliation and depopulation ostensibly contributed to widespread famine. These circumstances arguably contributed to the determination of the Mongols to abandon Hungary and return to Russia. While overcoming deterministic and reductionist arguments, our 'environmental hypothesis' demonstrates the importance of minor climatic fluctuations on major historical events.
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Climatic changes during the first half of the Common Era have been suggested to play a role in societal reorganizations in Europe 1,2 and Asia 3,4. In particular, the sixth century coincides with rising and falling civilizations 1–6 ,... more
Climatic changes during the first half of the Common Era have been suggested to play a role in societal reorganizations in Europe 1,2 and Asia 3,4. In particular, the sixth century coincides with rising and falling civilizations 1–6 , pandemics 7,8 , human migration and political turmoil 8–13. Our understanding of the magnitude and spatial extent as well as the possible causes and concurrences of climate change during this period is, however, still limited. Here we use tree-ring chronologies from the Rus-sian Altai and European Alps to reconstruct summer temperatures over the past two millennia. We find an unprecedented, long-lasting and spatially synchronized cooling following a cluster of large volcanic eruptions in 536, 540 and 547 AD (ref. 14), which was probably sustained by ocean and sea-ice feedbacks 15,16 , as well as a solar minimum 17. We thus identify the interval from 536 to about 660 AD as the Late Antique Little Ice Age. Spanning most of the Northern Hemisphere, we suggest that this cold phase be considered as an additional environmental factor contributing to the establishment of the Justinian plague 7,8
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European nation states is not new, although the argument has never before been developed as extensively and systematically. 1 Victoria Tin-Bor Hui has piled enough information on both pans of her scales to instruct and intrigue even the... more
European nation states is not new, although the argument has never before been developed as extensively and systematically. 1 Victoria Tin-Bor Hui has piled enough information on both pans of her scales to instruct and intrigue even the most broadly educated readers, ...
... Khingan Range, are the most important waterways and natural avenues of communication between Central Mongolia, Transbaikalia, and northern ... The steppe regions became populated with diversified communities of Neolithic hunters and... more
... Khingan Range, are the most important waterways and natural avenues of communication between Central Mongolia, Transbaikalia, and northern ... The steppe regions became populated with diversified communities of Neolithic hunters and fishermen as well as Bronze Age ...
ELISABETH CROLL: Wise daughters from foreign lands: European women writers in China, xii, 265 pp. London, etc.: Pandora Press, 1989. £14.95. This study explores both the lives of six Western women who lived some time in China, and looks... more
ELISABETH CROLL: Wise daughters from foreign lands: European women writers in China, xii, 265 pp. London, etc.: Pandora Press, 1989. £14.95. This study explores both the lives of six Western women who lived some time in China, and looks at China itself as seen through ...
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What is sovereignty? Often taken for granted or seen as the ideology of European states vying for supremacy and conquest, the concept of sovereignty remains underexamined both in the history of its practices and in its aesthetic and... more
What is sovereignty? Often taken for granted or seen as the ideology of European states vying for supremacy and conquest, the concept of sovereignty remains underexamined both in the history of its practices and in its aesthetic and intellectual underpinnings. Using global intellectual history as a bridge between approaches, periods, and areas, The Scaffolding of Sovereignty deploys a comparative and theoretically rich conception of sovereignty to reconsider the different schemes on which it has been based or renewed, the public stages on which it is erected or destroyed, and the images and ideas on which it rests.

The essays in The Scaffolding of Sovereignty reveal that sovereignty has always been supported, complemented, and enforced by a complex aesthetic and intellectual scaffolding. This collection takes a multidisciplinary approach to investigating the concept on a global scale, ranging from an account of a Manchu emperor building a mosque to a discussion of the continuing power of Lenin's corpse, from an analysis of the death of kings in classical Greek tragedy to an exploration of the imagery of "the people" in the Age of Revolutions. Across seventeen chapters that closely study specific historical regimes and conflicts, the book's contributors examine intersections of authority, power, theatricality, science and medicine, jurisdiction, rulership, human rights, scholarship, religious and popular ideas, and international legal thought that support or undermine different instances of sovereign power and its representations.
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