Papers by Alexandra Tragaki
Land, 2018
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Journal of Atherosclerosis Prevention and Treatment
The aim of this work was to evaluate, from an epidemiological perspective, whether there is any a... more The aim of this work was to evaluate, from an epidemiological perspective, whether there is any association between CVD burden and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, in EU/EEA and UK. A strong, inverse relationship between COVID-19 and CVD death rates in EU/EEA and UK was observed and presented for the first time in the literature. This relationship was independent of various socio-demographic and lifestyle indicators that may acted as potential confounders.
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Population, Space and Place, 2022
Since 11 March 2020 when officially declared a global pandemic, Covid-19 (or SARS-COV2) has turne... more Since 11 March 2020 when officially declared a global pandemic, Covid-19 (or SARS-COV2) has turned out to be a multifaceted disease differently affecting countries and individuals. What makes certain countries more vulnerable than others has attracted the interest of scientists from various disciplines.
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Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 2011
... DOI: 10.1080/14683857.2011.632544 Alexandra Tragaki a * pages 435-450. Available online: 09 D... more ... DOI: 10.1080/14683857.2011.632544 Alexandra Tragaki a * pages 435-450. Available online: 09 Dec 2011. ...
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ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 2021
Research efforts focused on developing a better understanding of the evolution of mortality over ... more Research efforts focused on developing a better understanding of the evolution of mortality over time are considered to be of significant interest—not just to the demographers. Mortality can be expressed with different parameters through multiparametric prediction models. Based on the Beta Gompertz generalized Makeham (BGGM) distribution, this study aims to evaluate and map four of such parameters for 22 countries of the European Union, over the period 1960–2045. The BGGM probabilistic distribution is a multidimensional model, which can predict using the corresponding probabilistic distribution with the following parameters: infant mortality (parameter θ), population aging (parameter ξ), and individual and population mortality due to unexpected exogenous factors/events (parameters κ and λ, respectively). This work focuses on the random risk factor (λ) that can affect the entire population, regardless of age and gender, with increasing mortality depicting developments and trends, bot...
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The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, 2020
Beta distribution has been widely used in many scientific areas. It is applied very often and is ... more Beta distribution has been widely used in many scientific areas. It is applied very often and is known as a probability distribution with wide application in the management of various kinds of problems, such as in survival analysis. In recent years, development has focused on new probabilistic techniques for building new distributions, (e.g., Jones’ Generalized Beta Distribution, 2004). This study will investigate the statistical properties of the proposed distribution using six parameters; this is called the Beta Gompertz Generalized Makeham distribution. It includes verifying the probability density function, the cumulative density function, and the hazard function.
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The dynamics of human mortality during lifetime is an issue of great scientific interest for its ... more The dynamics of human mortality during lifetime is an issue of great scientific interest for its demographic and actuarial implications, but also for better understanding this very process of ageing. Differences in the shape of mortality curves reflect changes in the rates and causes of mortality and are related to both endogenous and exogenous factors. Shape variations of mortality curves over time as well as across regions may help to decipher the process of ageing and thus formulate health strategy priorities and policies so as to reduce premature mortality, improve quality of life, and extend life span. In this study, a new model of mathematical mortality (BGGM distribution) is applied on Italian and Swedish data, over a 114 year-period (1900–2013). The aim of this work is to evaluate the proper adaptation of this distribution, to estimate its values and to identify eventual spatial and temporal differentiations. The application of the suggested approach is illustrated using his...
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ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 2020
Research efforts focusing on better understanding and capture of mortality progression over the t... more Research efforts focusing on better understanding and capture of mortality progression over the time are considered to be of significant interest in the field of demography. On a demographic basis, mortality can be expressed by different physical parameters. The main objective of this study is the assessment and mapping of four such parameters at the European scale, during the time period 1993–2013. Infant mortality (parameter θ), population aging (parameter ξ), and individual and population mortality due to unexpected exogenous factors/events (parameter κ and λ, respectively) are represented from these parameters. Given that their estimation is based on demographics by age and cause of death, and in order to be examined and visualized by gender, time-specific mortality and population demographic data with respect to gender, age, and cause of death was used. The resulting maps present the spatial patterns of the estimated parameters as well as their variations over the examined peri...
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Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 2018
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During the last two decades, Southern Europe has become a destination region for migrants, as a r... more During the last two decades, Southern Europe has become a destination region for migrants, as a result of demographic, economic and social developments across Eastern and Southern Europe. A number of common characteristics have been put forward to explain the unexpected and simultaneous transformation of this part of Europe into an appealing destination for new migratory flows. Those common explanatory factors of the reasons why immigrants are attracted to countries in Southern Europe have led to the development of the so-called “Southern European model of migrationâ€, while the examination of immigrants’ personal characteristics across Greece, Italy and Spain reveals some interesting differences. This paper sheds light on who the immigrants are, their specific characteristics, how they are spatially distributed and the causal factors of this distribution- the latter through the use of regression analysis.
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European Urban and Regional Studies, 2006
This paper examines the geographical dimension of immigration in Greece. More particularly, this ... more This paper examines the geographical dimension of immigration in Greece. More particularly, this study presents the distinctive economic, demographic and settlement features of the different groups of immigrants in the Greek prefectures. The majority of immigrant workers in Greece come from the Balkan countries, the most populous ethnic group being the Albanians who account for almost 60 percent of the total immigrant population. There are significant disparities between different ethnic groups regarding their educational level and occupational characteristics. The profile of the average immigrant worker in Greece is young, from an ex-communist country; men migrate mainly for economic reasons while women migrate mostly for family reasons; women often have a higher level of education than men. There are also significant differences as far as the spatial distribution of the various ethnic groups is concerned. Some groups, such as the Philippinos, Georgians, or the Poles, show high geo...
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European Urban and Regional Studies, 2012
Changing demographics and modified settlement patterns have reshaped the socio-economic context o... more Changing demographics and modified settlement patterns have reshaped the socio-economic context of Southern Europe at the turn of the century. Within this context, Italy has become one of the major European destinations for migrants; their numbers have more than tripled during the years 2000–2010. This paper analyses the changing demography of (legal) migrants to Italy, as well as their settlement patterns and spatial distribution over time. Since the onset of the new millennium, immigrant populations in Southern Europe in general, and in Italy in particular, have been experiencing rapidly increasing volumes and rapidly changing demographics. The feminization of foreign population, its changing age structure and ethnic composition are some of the most striking features. Meanwhile, noteworthy changes have been registered in the spatial distribution of immigrants. Different ethnic groups follow different settlement patterns and register different levels of spatial dispersion. Though t...
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Finnish Yearbook of Population Research, 2017
This paper analyzes recent suicide trends in Greece. It relies on two separate databases, vital s... more This paper analyzes recent suicide trends in Greece. It relies on two separate databases, vital statistics and police records, the latter never having been explored before. Those datasets present a different picture about the suicide rates and trends, confirming the crucial importance of data reliability and consistency in time trend analysis. Frequencies and ratios were calculated and compared using paired sample t-tests. Overtime trend changes were detected applying segment regression analysis on both data collections. Our findings suggest that there are important differences between vital and police statistics on suicides. At national level, over the period 1990–2013, vital statistics reported an average of 7 percent more suicides, annually. Differences were more pronounced among women and younger ages. Both datasets confirm a change in total suicide trends during recent recession, but police data analysis supports that increases are less impressive than vital statistics claim.
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Population Space and Place, 2022
Since 11 March 2020 when officially declared a global pandemic, Covid-19 (or SARS-COV2) has turne... more Since 11 March 2020 when officially declared a global pandemic, Covid-19 (or SARS-COV2) has turned out to be a multifaceted disease differently affecting countries and individuals. What makes certain countries more vulnerable than others has attracted the interest of scientists from various disciplines.
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Journal of Atherosclerosis Prevention and Treatment, 2021
The aim of this work was to evaluate, from an epidemiological perspective, whether there is any a... more The aim of this work was to evaluate, from an epidemiological perspective, whether there is any association between CVD burden and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, in EU/EEA and UK. A strong, inverse relationship between COVID-19 and CVD death rates in EU/EEA and UK was observed and presented for the first time in the literature. This relationship was independent of various socio-demographic and lifestyle indicators that may acted as potential confounders.
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ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf, 2021
Research efforts focused on developing a better understanding of the evolution of mortality
over ... more Research efforts focused on developing a better understanding of the evolution of mortality
over time are considered to be of significant interest—not just to the demographers. Mortality
can be expressed with different parameters through multiparametric prediction models. Based on
the Beta Gompertz generalized Makeham (BGGM) distribution, this study aims to evaluate and
map four of such parameters for 22 countries of the European Union, over the period 1960–2045.
The BGGM probabilistic distribution is a multidimensional model, which can predict using the
corresponding probabilistic distribution with the following parameters: infant mortality (parameter
θ), population aging (parameter ξ), and individual and population mortality due to unexpected
exogenous factors/events (parameters κ and λ, respectively). This work focuses on the random
risk factor (λ) that can affect the entire population, regardless of age and gender, with increasing
mortality depicting developments and trends, both temporally (past–present–future) and spatially
(22 countries). Moreover, this study could help policymakers in the field of health provide solutions
in terms of mortality. Mathematical models like BGGM can be used to achieve and highlight
probable cyclical repetitions of sudden events (such as Covid-19) in different time series for different
geographical areas. GIS context is used to map the spatial patterns of this estimated parameter as
well as these variations during the examined period for both men and women.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. , 2020
Research efforts focusing on better understanding and capture of mortality progression over the t... more Research efforts focusing on better understanding and capture of mortality progression over the time are considered to be of significant interest in the field of demography. On a demographic basis, mortality can be expressed by different physical parameters. The main objective of this study is the assessment and mapping of four such parameters at the European scale, during the time period 1993-2013. Infant mortality (parameter θ), population aging (parameter ξ), and individual and population mortality due to unexpected exogenous factors/events (parameter κ and λ, respectively) are represented from these parameters. Given that their estimation is based on demographics by age and cause of death, and in order to be examined and visualized by gender, time-specific mortality and population demographic data with respect to gender, age, and cause of death was used. The resulting maps present the spatial patterns of the estimated parameters as well as their variations over the examined period for both male and female populations of 22 European countries in all.
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Genus, 2019
Research on the counter-or pro-cyclical nature of aggregate fertility over economic cycles has be... more Research on the counter-or pro-cyclical nature of aggregate fertility over economic cycles has been inconclusive, as results vary significantly across regions and over time. This work examines the variations in Greek birth rates, and confirms that fertility rates in Greece have declined since 2010. Partly as a response to economic uncertainty, childbearing decisions have been revised downward, although not uniformly across population groups. According to our analysis, almost 40,000 fewer babies were born in Greece between 2010 and 2015 than would have been born if pre-recession fertility rates had remained unchanged. Those missing births are mainly attributed to women under age 30, as well as to non-employed women of all ages. In terms of birth order, most of the missing births are second-or higher-order births. Even if a catch-up process occurs in the years to come, the foregone births are already visible as a cavity on the population pyramid.
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A number of different probability distributions describing age-specific mortality have been propo... more A number of different probability distributions describing age-specific mortality have been proposed. The most common ones, Gompertz and Gompertz - Makeham distributions have received wide acceptance and describe fairly well mortality data over a period of 60–70 years, but generally do not give the desired results for old and/or young ages. This paper proposes a new mathematical distribution (thereafter named ANBE), that results from the combination of the above distributions with Beta distribution. Beta distribution has been chosen for its flexibility to different dataset. Tested for its goodness of fit, ANBE shows a higher predictive ability for males and females, especially at higher ages. This new probability density function could also be applied in populations other than the Greek, subject to appropriate parameter detection (e.g. Maximum Likelihood). The application relies on mortality data collected and provided by ELSTAT for year 2011. Population data were used in order to calculate age and sex-specific mortality rates based on the estimated mean population of one-year interval age-group for the year concerned. According to our findings, the B.ANBE mortality model presents satisfactory results on appropriate evaluation criteria (AIC, BIC).
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Background: Demographic dynamics and decreasing trends in mortality from chronic diseases are maj... more Background: Demographic dynamics and decreasing trends in mortality from chronic diseases are major contributors to the phenomenon of population aging. The purpose of the present study was to examine the association between cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and demographic indicators, in Greece the past 60 years. Methods: Life Expectancy at birth (LE), population age structure, fertility rates (TFR) and all-cause, CVD mortality rates were retrieved (data provided by the Hellenic Statistical Authority, 1956-2015). In order to test the research hypothesis time-series analysis was conducted. Results: Increasing trends in LE and in the older age (>65 or >80 years) groups' share and declining trends in TFR were recorded. CVD mortality, after an upward course, showed decreasing trends during 1988–2009, accounting for the 96% and 97% increment in LE in men and women respectively. However, newer records (2010-2015) show a new upward trend. The declining trends in TFR were highly associated with the shifts towards the upper part of the population age pyramid. Conclusion: Population aging is a historically unprecedented event that cannot be avoided, deterred or alleviated. Its negative effects act cumulatively with the recent increases in cardiovascular mortality, especially in the light of the ongoing economic crisis which is expected to further exacerbate the existing contrasts. A possible way to successfully cope with the new demographic realities is to unlock an, up till now largely overlooked, opportunity named " healthy aging " .
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Papers by Alexandra Tragaki
over time are considered to be of significant interest—not just to the demographers. Mortality
can be expressed with different parameters through multiparametric prediction models. Based on
the Beta Gompertz generalized Makeham (BGGM) distribution, this study aims to evaluate and
map four of such parameters for 22 countries of the European Union, over the period 1960–2045.
The BGGM probabilistic distribution is a multidimensional model, which can predict using the
corresponding probabilistic distribution with the following parameters: infant mortality (parameter
θ), population aging (parameter ξ), and individual and population mortality due to unexpected
exogenous factors/events (parameters κ and λ, respectively). This work focuses on the random
risk factor (λ) that can affect the entire population, regardless of age and gender, with increasing
mortality depicting developments and trends, both temporally (past–present–future) and spatially
(22 countries). Moreover, this study could help policymakers in the field of health provide solutions
in terms of mortality. Mathematical models like BGGM can be used to achieve and highlight
probable cyclical repetitions of sudden events (such as Covid-19) in different time series for different
geographical areas. GIS context is used to map the spatial patterns of this estimated parameter as
well as these variations during the examined period for both men and women.
over time are considered to be of significant interest—not just to the demographers. Mortality
can be expressed with different parameters through multiparametric prediction models. Based on
the Beta Gompertz generalized Makeham (BGGM) distribution, this study aims to evaluate and
map four of such parameters for 22 countries of the European Union, over the period 1960–2045.
The BGGM probabilistic distribution is a multidimensional model, which can predict using the
corresponding probabilistic distribution with the following parameters: infant mortality (parameter
θ), population aging (parameter ξ), and individual and population mortality due to unexpected
exogenous factors/events (parameters κ and λ, respectively). This work focuses on the random
risk factor (λ) that can affect the entire population, regardless of age and gender, with increasing
mortality depicting developments and trends, both temporally (past–present–future) and spatially
(22 countries). Moreover, this study could help policymakers in the field of health provide solutions
in terms of mortality. Mathematical models like BGGM can be used to achieve and highlight
probable cyclical repetitions of sudden events (such as Covid-19) in different time series for different
geographical areas. GIS context is used to map the spatial patterns of this estimated parameter as
well as these variations during the examined period for both men and women.