Anu Anwar
Harvard University, Faculty of Arts & Sciences, Department Member
- Anu Anwar is a Fellow at the Faculty of Arts and Sciences and an Associate in Research at the John K. Fairbank Center... moreAnu Anwar is a Fellow at the Faculty of Arts and Sciences and an Associate in Research at the John K. Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Harvard University. He is also a Visiting Fellow at the University of Tokyo’s Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia.
Before joining Harvard, Mr. Anwar worked as a Research Fellow at the U.S. Department of Defense’s Institute—Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. He was also an Affiliate Scholar at East-West Center, Hawaii and a Visiting Scholar at Kobe Gakuin University, Japan.edit
While some observers argue that on the regional level, China and India are engaged in a tug-of-war for Bangladesh, others have pointed out that Bangladesh has been benefiting from the China-India rivalry. However, factual evidence... more
While some observers argue that on the regional level, China and India are engaged in a tug-of-war for Bangladesh, others have pointed out that Bangladesh has been benefiting from the China-India rivalry. However, factual evidence suggests Bangladesh’s perceived benefit is more a byproduct of great-power competition than an outcome of Dhaka’s proactive strategies to hedge between them.
As a matter of fact, Bangladesh has no foreign policy. What is over-cited by Bangladeshi officials as foreign policy, in effect, doesn’t stand as a policy by any means.
As a matter of fact, Bangladesh has no foreign policy. What is over-cited by Bangladeshi officials as foreign policy, in effect, doesn’t stand as a policy by any means.
Research Interests:
Bangladesh is again on the radar of global geopolitics, this time thanks to turmoil in domestic politics amid upcoming elections and near-simultaneous high-level visits from the United States and China – each aiming to limit the other’s... more
Bangladesh is again on the radar of global geopolitics, this time thanks to turmoil in domestic politics amid upcoming elections and near-simultaneous high-level visits from the United States and China – each aiming to limit the other’s gains, while securing their own advancement.
Research Interests:
In September 2022, in these pages, I argued that national security is a taboo subject in Bangladesh. National security is taboo precisely because the discourse on national threats is the real taboo. In Bangladesh, whether scholars or... more
In September 2022, in these pages, I argued that national security is a taboo subject in Bangladesh. National security is taboo precisely because the discourse on national threats is the real taboo.
In Bangladesh, whether scholars or bureaucrats, military or civilian, nobody is comfortable discussing the country's emerging and existential threats.
The discourse of national security takes place rarely, and even in such rare discourses, there is a deliberate effort to demilitarize it. It is often portrayed to the public and indoctrinated in academic settings that Bangladesh has no security threats. Therefore, all it needs to do is focus on economic development.
In Bangladesh, whether scholars or bureaucrats, military or civilian, nobody is comfortable discussing the country's emerging and existential threats.
The discourse of national security takes place rarely, and even in such rare discourses, there is a deliberate effort to demilitarize it. It is often portrayed to the public and indoctrinated in academic settings that Bangladesh has no security threats. Therefore, all it needs to do is focus on economic development.
Research Interests:
The word “national security” is taboo in Bangladesh. There is no discourse -- public or private -- about Bangladesh’s national security threats. Bangladesh spends billions of dollars on defense each year, but since its existence for 50... more
The word “national security” is taboo in Bangladesh. There is no discourse -- public or private -- about Bangladesh’s national security threats.
Bangladesh spends billions of dollars on defense each year, but since its existence for 50 years, Dhaka has not produced a national defense policy.
Currently, Bangladesh is pursuing “Forces Goal 2030” with the aim of modernization of its armed forces, but the sole purpose of this effort, the defense goal, is absent.
Bangladesh spends billions of dollars on defense each year, but since its existence for 50 years, Dhaka has not produced a national defense policy.
Currently, Bangladesh is pursuing “Forces Goal 2030” with the aim of modernization of its armed forces, but the sole purpose of this effort, the defense goal, is absent.
Research Interests:
Sri Lanka, once known as the “Pearl of the Indian Ocean,” is today a failed state in South Asia. Commentators have asserted a wide range of perspectives about the reasons for its failure. Some blame external forces such as debt and... more
Sri Lanka, once known as the “Pearl of the Indian Ocean,” is today a failed state in South Asia. Commentators have asserted a wide range of perspectives about the reasons for its failure. Some blame external forces such as debt and geopolitics, while others point out internal factors such as government mismanagement and inefficiency. These analyses underappreciate one of the core factors underlying this catastrophe: “familycracy,” or a system of government in which one or several families continuously or by turn hold all the political, economic, social, and military power of a state. Family kinship becomes the only criterion for advancement to the top of the socio-political hierarchy.
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Over the past decade or so, with the winds of geopolitical change sweeping Asia, the Indo-Pacific has emerged as a focal point in global economics, diplomacy, and security. With its more than half of the global population, fast-rising... more
Over the past decade or so, with the winds of geopolitical change sweeping Asia, the Indo-Pacific has emerged as a focal point in global economics, diplomacy, and security. With its more than half of the global population, fast-rising prosperity, and the challenges of rising regional powers, the Indo-Pacific is the prime strategic hub for deciding the future of existing global order. To maintain the status quo in the region and keep China’s assertiveness in check, the United States, Japan, and Australia, among others, have advanced the idea of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.” Although each of these countries has its own vision, the general aspiration to keep the region free from coercion and open for all is the benchmark that they share. Within the Indo-Pacific theater, the Bay of Bengal — situated at the intersection between South and Southeast Asia — is a divider, a connector, and one of the prime battlegrounds.
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At the height of the Cold War in 1981, Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere quoted an African proverb at the Commonwealth conference: “When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers”, which was recently echoed by Singapore Prime... more
At the height of the Cold War in 1981, Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere quoted an African proverb at the Commonwealth conference: “When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers”, which was recently echoed by Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, who added that, “when they make love, the grass suffers also”. However, this conventional wisdom seems flawed in the case of the China-India rivalry for regional influence in Bangladesh. Instead of losing—Bangladesh boasting South Asia’s second-largest economy—is reaping the benefits so far.
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In 2021, China’s President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory message to Bangladesh on the 50th anniversary of its independence that encapsulates mutual aspirations for stronger ties in an age of great power competition. Both countries were... more
In 2021, China’s President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory message to Bangladesh on the 50th anniversary of its independence that encapsulates mutual aspirations for stronger ties in an age of great power competition. Both countries were “at a crucial stage of revitalization and development” when China’s “dream of great national rejuvenation can well connect with the “Sonar Bangla” [Golden Bangladesh] dream,” China’s president said. In 2016, President Xi became the first Chinese president to visit Bangladesh in 30 years. Bilateral relations were not always smooth and warm. China’s position towards Bangladesh has evolved over the 50 years since 1971 from hostility into a reluctant embrace and is now a “strategic partnership.” Current Bangladesh-China relations rest on a mix of pragmatism, strategic ambiguity, and political accommodation. Bangladesh and China have built a deep interdependence which is tilting increasingly in China’s favor.
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As the Biden administration implements its new Indo-Pacific strategy, Bangladesh’s relationships with neighboring India and China are drawing renewed interest from U.S. policymakers. U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs Victoria... more
As the Biden administration implements its new Indo-Pacific strategy, Bangladesh’s relationships with neighboring India and China are drawing renewed interest from U.S. policymakers. U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland visited Dhaka in late March and signed a draft defense cooperation agreement; last year, Special President Envoy for Climate John Kerry also went to Dhaka in advance of the Leaders’ Summit on Climate. At the same time, Washington retains concerns over democratic backsliding, human rights abuses and constraints on free and open electoral competition in the country. Experts Anu Anwar, Geoffrey Macdonald, Daniel Markey and Jumaina Siddiqui assess the factors shaping Bangladesh’s relations with its neighbors and the United States.
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As it has across the entire Indo-Pacific, geopolitical competition has intensified in the Bay of Bengal. There is, indeed, a competition between and among major powers; India competes with China, US-led allies challenge China’s... more
As it has across the entire Indo-Pacific, geopolitical competition has intensified in the Bay of Bengal. There is, indeed, a competition between and among major powers; India competes with China, US-led allies challenge China’s assertiveness, and the Bay of Bengal—situated at the intersection between South and Southeast Asia—is a divider, a connector, and a battleground. To set out the trajectory, this article starts by identifying the strategic geography of the Bay of Bengal in the Indo-Pacific fulcrum, one prism through which to view the evolving international relations of the region. In doing so, the article discusses the factors that drive the evolving significance of the Bay for its littoral states and great powers. Then the focus shifts toward another prism—the nontraditional security issues including economy, ecology, and connectivity, which are of deep interest to all the littoral states. These factors can drive cooperation. This review of the hard and soft elements of the strategic environment of the Bay of Bengal suggests strong cohesion of the regional states is the key to mutual prosperity. But can this be achieved when the forces of division have become so much greater?
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RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S.... more
RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due recognition to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Mr Yang Razali Kassim, Editor RSIS Commentary at RSISPublications@ntu.edu.sg.
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Bangladesh gained independence 50 years ago. The country emerged from a brutal liberation war against Pakistan-Bangladesh was part of Pakistan from 1947 to 1971-and faced nearly insurmountable challenges. Despite the odds, Bangladesh has... more
Bangladesh gained independence 50 years ago. The country emerged from a brutal liberation war against Pakistan-Bangladesh was part of Pakistan from 1947 to 1971-and faced nearly insurmountable challenges. Despite the odds, Bangladesh has survived for a half-century and increasingly represents an economic success story. At the time of independence in 1971, over 80 percent of the population was living in extreme poverty. Today, 80 percent live above the poverty line. With a gross domestic product of over $352 billion, Bangladesh currently has the 41st largest economy in the world and the second-largest in South Asia, only behind India. Bangladesh is projected to have the world's 28th largest economy by 2030. While economic growth has presented its own challenges-particularly in terms of tremendous wealth inequality-the economic trajectory of Bangladesh remains positive.
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“Trade wars are good, and easy to win,” US President Donald Trump proclaimed in March. Since then trade tensions between the United States and China have continued to rise, and it is obvious that what qualifies as a “win” in the... more
“Trade wars are good, and easy to win,” US President Donald Trump proclaimed in March. Since then trade tensions between the United States and China have continued to rise, and it is obvious that what qualifies as a “win” in the president’s book might entail profound risk in longer-term implications in the security realm.
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Though South Asia occupies only 3.4% of the world’s land surface area, it is home to 24% of the world population. Each country in South Asia is in an economic upswing. Estimates are that South Asia has experienced on average 7.3% economic... more
Though South Asia occupies only 3.4% of the world’s land surface area, it is home to 24% of the world population. Each country in South Asia is in an economic upswing. Estimates are that South Asia has experienced on average 7.3% economic growth over the past decade, which makes this region one of the fastest-growing in the world. The Chinese government considers South Asia the main axis for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
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RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors' views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S.... more
RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors' views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due recognition to the author(s) and RSIS.
Research Interests:
As the U.S.-China trade war intensified, pundits on both sides of the Pacific and elsewhere are calculating: Who is the real winner? Indeed, it is not China or the United States, but countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Chile that... more
As the U.S.-China trade war intensified, pundits on both sides of the Pacific and elsewhere are calculating: Who is the real winner? Indeed, it is not China or the United States, but countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Chile that could benefit from the widening trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies. The impending effect of the trade war on supply chain dynamics and investment patterns could help these countries emerge as potential winners of the conflict.
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Conventional wisdom says great power rivalry makes smaller neighbors vulnerable. As recently echoed by Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, “When elephants fight, the grass suffers, but when they make love, the grass suffers also.”... more
Conventional wisdom says great power rivalry makes smaller neighbors vulnerable. As recently echoed by Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, “When elephants fight, the grass suffers, but when they make love, the grass suffers also.” However, this conventional wisdom seems flawed in the case of the China-India rivalry for regional influence in Bangladesh. Instead of losing, the small South Asian country is reaping benefits.
Research Interests:
Southeast Asia is a region crucial to China, the geography creating what is known as the “Malacca Strait dilemma” – a strategic chokepoint located between the Malay Peninsula and the Indonesian island of Sumatra, it provides China with... more
Southeast Asia is a region crucial to China, the geography creating what is known as the “Malacca Strait dilemma” – a strategic chokepoint located between the Malay Peninsula and the Indonesian island of Sumatra, it provides China with its shortest maritime access to Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Some 80% of China’s total energy supply passes through the Malacca Strait.
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India, often considered the natural leader of South Asia, is facing stiff competition from China.The recent tilt of the “non-nuclear five” South Asian states (i.e. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives and Bhutan) toward China has become... more
India, often considered the natural leader of South Asia, is facing stiff competition from China.The recent tilt of the “non-nuclear five” South Asian states (i.e. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives and Bhutan) toward China has become quite visible as China has significantly increased its influence across the region through investment, trade, military ties, diplomatic and cultural initiatives. Meanwhile, the US envisages playing a more prominent role in South Asia by teaming up with India to challenge China and exert influence in the Indo-Pacific region. A key consideration in the US “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy” hinges on India’s influence
in South Asia. This paper looks closely at how Chinese bilateral trade, investment, political and military ties with the “non-nuclear five” nations have evolved and how that may affect India’s ambitions in the region. Recommendations are offered for both the US and India on how they
may retain their supremacy in the region despite an ambitious and resourceful China.
in South Asia. This paper looks closely at how Chinese bilateral trade, investment, political and military ties with the “non-nuclear five” nations have evolved and how that may affect India’s ambitions in the region. Recommendations are offered for both the US and India on how they
may retain their supremacy in the region despite an ambitious and resourceful China.
Research Interests:
What is clear is the initiative’s importance to the top Chinese leadership. After the Belt and Road Initiative was enshrined in the Communist Party charter in 2017, and its offshoot, “a community with a shared destiny for humanity” was... more
What is clear is the initiative’s importance to the top Chinese leadership. After the Belt and Road Initiative was enshrined in the Communist Party charter in 2017, and its offshoot, “a community with a shared destiny for humanity” was included in China’s constitution in April, it is harder for sceptics to continue to claim that the initiative is an empty slogan that will soon fade.
In fact, the Belt and Road Initiative will remain the master concept of Chinese foreign policy for the foreseeable future, all the way to 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
In fact, the Belt and Road Initiative will remain the master concept of Chinese foreign policy for the foreseeable future, all the way to 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
Research Interests:
Decades of astonishing economic growth have given China new tools for extending its influence abroad and achieving its political goals. Some of these tools are inducements, including Belt and Road Initiative projects and new development... more
Decades of astonishing economic growth have given China new tools for extending its influence abroad and achieving its political goals. Some of these tools are inducements, including Belt and Road Initiative projects and new development financial institutions. But China has demonstrated that it will use its new economic leverage in pursuit of political goals unrelated to economic exchange, swiftly shifting inducements to punishments. One example lies in the field of tourism.
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In recent years, questions have been raised about why Beijing provides billions of dollars in loans to debt-strapped nations for infrastructure projects of questionable commercial viability if not as part of a quest for regional and... more
In recent years, questions have been raised about why Beijing provides billions of dollars in loans to debt-strapped nations for infrastructure projects of questionable commercial viability if not as part of a quest for regional and global dominance. Given the growing controversy, it is critical to understand what China’s goals for the BRI really are. Why are the Chinese so determined to push forward with these projects despite mounting economic and political risks? The rationale can be explained in terms of both internal and external pressures and ambitions.
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The unprecedented rise of China has been one of the most notable geopolitical phenomena of the last century. China's decision to open up to the global economy in the 1980s sparked an economic miracle that has fueled growth for the past... more
The unprecedented rise of China has been one of the most notable geopolitical phenomena of the last century. China's decision to open up to the global economy in the 1980s sparked an economic miracle that has fueled growth for the past three decades, making it the world’s second-largest economy. But the country today harbors greater ambitions than mere economic dominance. Under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, a newly-assertive China is pursuing a sophisticated “whole-of-society” strategy that exploits all elements of state power to strengthen its position in the world and challenge the US.
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SYNOPSIS China's centrally controlled one-party state was able to implement unprecedented draconian measures, resulting in new cases declining drastically in contrast to many parts of the world. Would the world even be facing this crisis... more
SYNOPSIS China's centrally controlled one-party state was able to implement unprecedented draconian measures, resulting in new cases declining drastically in contrast to many parts of the world. Would the world even be facing this crisis if China had allowed the free flow of information and taken action at the beginning?
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The impending effect of the US–China trade war on supply chain dynamics and investment patterns could help Bangladesh to emerge as a potential winner from the conflict. Despite the different nature of trade, the US and China both have... more
The impending effect of the US–China trade war on supply chain dynamics and investment patterns could help Bangladesh to emerge as a potential winner from the conflict. Despite the different nature of trade, the US and China both have been stable trading partners to Bangladesh for decades. While China is Bangladesh’s top import partner, the United States is the second-largest destination for Bangladesh’s exports. Bangladesh could gain benefit from both countries but in different ways. This chapter attempts to explore how Bangladesh can take advantage of the trade war. It further investigates the sectors that are well placed in Bangladesh’s economy to accrue the benefit.
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In 2013, Chinese President and Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping initiated the One Belt One Road 一带一路 (yīdài yīlù) project, whose English name was quickly changed by China to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is primarily... more
In 2013, Chinese President and Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping initiated the One Belt One Road 一带一路 (yīdài yīlù) project, whose
English name was quickly changed by China to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is primarily a Beijing-financed infrastructure project, which
aims to bolster China’s connectivity through Central, South, and Southeast
Asia, all the way into the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. Xi contrasted this ambitious undertaking with the late Chinese “paramount leader”
Deng Xiaoping’s “hide and bide” 韬光养晦，有所作为 (Tāo guāng yǎng
huì, Yǒu suǒ zuò wéi) doctrine,2
which emphasized strengthening domestic capacities and avoiding external involvement. It is Xi’s signature foreign
policy initiative aimed at transforming China into a global superpower.
After the 19th Communist Party of China (CPC) National Congress, the
BRI was enshrined in the party charter, and its offshoot, 人类命运共同
体（Rén lèi mìng yùn gòng tóng tǐ) “a community with a shared destiny for humanity” was included in the Constitution of the People’s Republic
of China (PRC).3
It is a master concept of Chinese foreign policy for the
foreseeable future, all the way to 2049, the 100th anniversary of the PRC.
English name was quickly changed by China to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is primarily a Beijing-financed infrastructure project, which
aims to bolster China’s connectivity through Central, South, and Southeast
Asia, all the way into the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. Xi contrasted this ambitious undertaking with the late Chinese “paramount leader”
Deng Xiaoping’s “hide and bide” 韬光养晦，有所作为 (Tāo guāng yǎng
huì, Yǒu suǒ zuò wéi) doctrine,2
which emphasized strengthening domestic capacities and avoiding external involvement. It is Xi’s signature foreign
policy initiative aimed at transforming China into a global superpower.
After the 19th Communist Party of China (CPC) National Congress, the
BRI was enshrined in the party charter, and its offshoot, 人类命运共同
体（Rén lèi mìng yùn gòng tóng tǐ) “a community with a shared destiny for humanity” was included in the Constitution of the People’s Republic
of China (PRC).3
It is a master concept of Chinese foreign policy for the
foreseeable future, all the way to 2049, the 100th anniversary of the PRC.