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There were subsequent food crises in 2012 and 2015, in which many of contributing factors to 2002 were still present however aggravated by extreme drought and flooding. In 2012, the food crisis was caused by a combination of low rainfall affecting that years' maize harvest and inflation due to devaluation of the kwacha.^[10] After conditions started to improve in 2014, the following year saw extreme droughts followed by extreme flooding. This led to another food crisis in 2015 and the president declaring a state of emergency.^[11]

Today, many programs are put in place in Malawi to address climate instability, poverty and diversification in terms of both the economy and agriculture.^[12]

2012/2013 Food Crisis

Malawi saw a second food crisis in 2012 and 2013. The MVAC National Food Security Forecast estimated that over 1.4 million people in Malawi were food insecure in 2013, with many also trickling into the following year. This represents 9.5% of the population throughout 21 districts, with the conditions in the Northern region being the most dire. Economic, political and agricultural factors played into this crisis.

Agricultural Shortages

In 2012, low rainfall caused a severe drought which led to maize production decreasing by 40% in many regions. This low harvest of maize combined with lowered consumer purchasing power, meant that in 2012, around one million people required assistance to meet their basic food needs. In fact, the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee's projection for 2012 was a 21% increase in the number of vulnerable people due to the food crisis. Inflation combined with this decrease in maize production, meant that the retail prices for maize in 2012 were 40% higher than the five-year average. This is especially detrimental to food security in Malawi because maize is the country's most important and common food crop. The Famine and Early Warning System Network issued a statement claiming that a food emergency in Malawi could occur by July 2012 and have a duration of nine months. Despite this, no official state of emergency was declared by the government of Malawi.

Political and Economic Unrest

Joyce Banda, 4th President of Malawi

On the economic and political front, the tumultuous power transition of Joyce Banda's presidency in April 2012 had economic consequences that played into the food crisis. Before transitioning to President, Joyce Banda was Vice President of Malawi. However, the party failed to let the public know of Bingu wa Mutharika's death on April 5, 2012 and attempted to hold a cabinet meeting to undermine the constitution and prevent Banda's succession to President. The constitution of Malawi holds that the Vice President is the natural successor of power under section 83(4). She was eventually sworn in on April 7 but this constitutional crisis led to much speculation of the government which had lasting economic consequences.

Indeed, that same year the kwacha was devalued by 49% and heavily depreciated. According to the World Food Programme, this devaluation combined with a 12.4% inflation that same month led to a heavy increase in the price of primary goods and services throughout the country. The Centre for Social Concern released a report stating that the cost of living from 2011 to 2012 increased by more than 50%.

Lasting Effects of Previous Crises

Many of the lasting effects of previous food crises in Malawi were being felt in 2012. Indeed, certain causes of the 2002 food crisis such as development and market failures play into the 2012 crisis. Demographically, there had been high population growth in the past decade therefore simply more people to feed. Economically, in the turn on the century Malawi had high debt, therefore the IMF recommended it sell its maize reserves to start paying off the high interest rates. This meant that when the 2002 crisis hit, the country had no reserves and has been struggling to replenish since. Agriculturally, the failed diversification of the industry in terms of reducing reliance on maize has played a part in all food shortages. Furthermore, historically soil infertility in Malawi is high due to farmers being unable to afford fertilizers because of high poverty rates.

In addition, previous food crises had a serious long term cost due to malnutrition which led to stunting and reduced manual productivity. On average 60% of adults suffer from stunting as children which equates to almost 4.5 million people throughout the country suffering from undernutrition. Indeed, the same study by the World Food Programme estimated that MWK 16.5 billion was lost in production output due to malnutrition. This translates to $67 million US dollars.

2015 Food Crisis

Although in 2014, food availability in Malawi was on the rise, farmers fell back into food insecurity in 2015. In 2014, the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) estimated that 640,009 were food insecure compared to 1.46 million the previous year. This decrease in food insecurity was a result of higher food availability in 2014 due to successful harvests, however it did not last long as extreme flooding hit Malawi in 2015. It is estimated that Malawi loses around $12.5 million, or the equivalent of 1% of its GDP each year to drought, and $9 million or 0.7% of its GDP, to flooding in the southern regions of the country. Indeed, Malawi is not new to weather related disasters, between 1970 and 2006, there were over 40 weather related incidents.

In 2015, Malawi saw a significant drought followed by intense flooding due to El Nino. These droughts were the worst in the past thirty five years with two consecutive failed rainy seasons, thus farmers having no resources to feed themselves and their families. The effects on the population were detrimental because 90% of the population relied on rain-fed crops and farming to survive. Therefore, on April 13th, 2016, President Mutharika declared a state of national disaster following said droughts and flooding.As a result, maize prices saw a drastic increase and became unaffordable for most households. In addition, water availability for consumption and farming was severely low making it even harder for farmers to recover. By February of the same year the price of maize, the countries main crop, was already 60% above the national average of the past three years. Furthermore, Action Against Hunger estimates that maize production had decreased by 27% since the 2013 and fallen by 20% compared to the five year average. These extreme conditions have resulted in people selling their assets to buy food for their families and therefore a widespread state of crisis. According to World Food Programme, four in every ten children suffer from stunting due to the lack of nutrition and food crisis brought on by climate instability.

Contributing Factors

There were many factors that played into the severity of this crisis such as a lack of formal long term safety nets in Malawi to account for climate variability’s effects on farming. Indeed, it is believed that there is a need for policies to assist farmers in adopting strategies to mitigate climate change, such as sustainable farming systems and improved soil fertility. This lack of preparedness was combined with pre-existing vulnerability in the country. In 2015 like in 2002 and 2012 crisis, the lack of diversification of the agricultural industry combines with high soil infertility increase the severity of the shortages. The World Bank follows that populations in developing countries are more likely to suffer intense consequences of environmental disasters as loses are measured as a percentage of their GDP. Indeed, the United Nation Development Programme claims that with a lower degree of preparedness, the disaster and aftermath is increasingly destructive.

Drought Insurance

Malawi attempted to mitigate the consequences of this food crisis through purchasing drought insurance. In 2015, Malawi purchased drought insurance for the 2015/2016 farming season from the African Risk Capacity (ACR) insurance company. The insurance cost USD $5 million. However, the delayed assistance did not reach Malawians until 2017 thus failed to mitigate the economic loss of the crisis. Action Aid estimates that the 2015 drought cost the country USD $395 million.

Ongoing Crisis

There have been many programs put into place to mitigate the cyclical problem of food crises in Malawi. An example of this is the Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP) in 2005. The goal of FISP was to increase small farmers' access to agricultural resources to enable increased food self-sufficiency. This included a voucher system for farmers to be able to purchase seeds and fertilizer. However, the success of this program was still dependent on rainfall thus its effectiveness was limited. Further, the technologies used in this program, such as synthetic fertilizer and hybrid seeds have led to soil erosion and a debt cycle for farmers.

Other programs have been put in place to help farmer finances and debt such as Agricultural Extension Services, public works programs, and unconditional cash transfers. The National Adaption Plan also hopes to put in place measures to increase agricultural resilience. This goes hand in hand with Malawi's diversification plan that lists its main drivers as poverty, low land availability and strong reliance on natural resources. This plan seeks to address food security, resource management, clean energy, technology and funding in order to improve development, climate change and promote increased stability and security for its population.