2010 Florida gubernatorial election
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| Turnout | 48.7% 1.9[1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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     Scott: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Sink: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Florida |
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 Government |
The 2010 Florida gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Republican-turned-Independent incumbent Governor Charlie Crist chose not to run for a second term and he ran unsuccessfully for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martínez.[2] This resulted in an open race for Governor of Florida in which Republican Rick Scott narrowly defeated Democrat Alex Sink.
Despite mixed to unfavorable ratings, Rick Scott benefited greatly from the midterm GOP wave in which Republicans made significant gains across the country.[3] Scott was one of six Republican gubernatorial pick-ups nationwide (counting Crist as an Independent).
The tight and highly contentious election was one of the standout races in 2010. Despite not professing direct allegiance to the movement,[4] Scott benefited from support and endorsement by Tea Party activists,[3][5] an influential conservative voting bloc of the 2010 midterms. Furthermore, Scott ran aggressively against the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and exit polls indicated considerable support for that position.[6] This election was the first Florida gubernatorial election since 1982 where the winner of the gubernatorial election was of the same party as the winner of the concurrent United States Senate election.
Primary Elections
[edit]Democratic
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Alex Sink, Chief Financial Officer of Florida
- Brian Moore, political activist, 2008 Socialist Party USA Nominee for President of the United States
Alex Sink, the CFO of Florida, was mentioned as a possible candidate to run for Senate or Governor in 2010,[7][8] but initially declined. When Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, Sink immediately announced her campaign for governor. Sink was the wife of Bill McBride, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2002.
Sink faced only token opposition in the primary. Her lone opponent was former Socialist Party presidential nominee Brian Moore.[9] On primary day, Sink won the Democratic nomination with nearly 77% of the vote.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Alex Sink | 663,802 | 76.9% | |
| Democratic | Brian Moore | 199,896 | 23.1% | |
| Total votes | 863,698 | 100.0% | ||
Republican
[edit]In May 2009, Republican incumbent governor Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, and instead would run for U.S. Senate.[11] The move immediately turned the race competitive, as GOP-hopefuls lined up to run for the open seat. Former congressman and Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum emerged as the early favorite. McCollum had previously lost the election for Senate in 2000, and lost the Republican nomination for Senate in 2004. This would be his third attempt at a major statewide campaign.
Just before the deadline, Rick Scott jumped into the primary fight. Scott started dumping millions of his own personal fortune into the race.[12] The race quickly became one of the most expensive and "nasty" primary campaigns in recent Florida history.[13] Scott and McCollum lashed out with very negative attacks against each other. Scott ran as a political "outsider", and led some early polls, but McCollum re-took the lead in polls just before primary day. Scott benefited in the absentee voting, while McCollum expected to make up the difference based on turnout. On primary day, Scott won the nomination with just over 46% of the vote. The dejected McCollum team reluctantly conceded after midnight.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Scott | 595,474 | 46.4% | |
| Republican | Bill McCollum | 557,427 | 43.4% | |
| Republican | Mike McCalister | 130,056 | 10.1% | |
| Total votes | 1,282,957 | 100.0% | ||
General Election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Republican
[edit]- Rick Scott, healthcare executive
Democratic
[edit]- Alex Sink, Chief Financial Officer of Florida
Independence Party of Florida
[edit]- Peter L. Allen, electrical inspector
No party affiliation
[edit]- Michael E. Arth, policy analyst and urban designer who entered the race as a Democrat in June 2009 and later switched to no party affiliation in June 2010
- Farid Khavari, economist, author, and small business owner
- Daniel Imperato[14]
- Calvin Clarence "C.C." Reed
The race was dominated by the two major party candidates and spending on their behalf. By the October 25, 2010, Tampa debate between Scott and Sink, Scott had spent $60 million of his own money on the campaign compared to Sink's $28 million.[15] Total campaign expenditure for the race exceeded $100 million, far exceeding any previous spending for a governor's race in Florida.[16] Scott spent $78 million of his personal wealth in the race.[17] Sink made an issue of Scott's connections to Columbia/HCA, a Medicare billing fraud scandal.[3]
One of the turning points in the campaign came during the debate. During a commercial break, Sink's make-up artist delivered a text message on her cell phone to Sink, in direct violation of the debate rules. The rules infraction was immediately pointed out by Scott and the debate moderators.[18] Sink's team was accused of cheating during the debate, and the aide who delivered the message was fired from the campaign the next morning. Afterwards, media and observers were very critical of the gaffe.
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[19] | Tossup | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[20] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[21] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Lean R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[23] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]| Poll source | Dates administered | Alex Sink | Michael E. Arth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Dixon[24] | June 24–26, 2009 | 49% | 4% |
Republican primary
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Dates administered | Bill McCollum | Rick Scott | Paula Dockery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[25] | August 21–22, 2010 | 39% | 35% | – |
| Public Policy Polling[26] | August 21–22, 2010 | 40% | 47% | – |
| Mason-Dixon[27] | August 17–19, 2010 | 45% | 36% | – |
| Quinnipiac[28] | August 11–16, 2010 | 44% | 35% | – |
| Sunshine State News[29] | August 12–15, 2010 | 42% | 44% | – |
| Mason Dixon[30] | August 9–11, 2010 | 34% | 30% | – |
| Ipsos/Florida Newspapers[31] | August 6–10, 2010 | 32% | 42% | – |
| Mason Dixon[32] | August 2–4, 2010 | 31% | 37% | – |
| The Florida Poll[33] | July 24–28, 2010 | 25% | 41% | – |
| Quinnipiac[34] | July 22–27, 2010 | 32% | 43% | – |
| Public Policy Polling[35] | July 16–18, 2010 | 29% | 43% | – |
| Florida Chamber of Commerce[36] | June 9–13, 2010 | 30% | 35% | – |
| Quinnipiac[37] | June 2–8, 2010 | 31% | 44% | – |
| Mason-Dixon[38] | May 3–5, 2010 | 38% | 24% | 7% |
| Research 2000[39] | November 16–18, 2009 | 45% | – | 9% |
| Strategic Vision[40] | May 29–31, 2009 | 44% | – | 28% |
General election
[edit]
| Poll source | Dates administered | Bud Chiles (I) | Rick Scott (R) | Alex Sink (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[38] | May 3–5, 2010 | — | 36% | 38% |
| Rasmussen Reports[41] | May 16, 2010 | — | 41% | 40% |
| Rasmussen Reports[42] | June 7, 2010 | — | 45% | 40% |
| Quinnipiac[43] | June 7, 2010 | 13% | 35% | 26% |
| Florida Chamber of Commerce[36] | June 9–13, 2010 | 15% | 31% | 26% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[44] | July 9–11, 2010 | 12% | 34% | 31% |
| Public Policy Polling[45] | July 16–18, 2010 | 13% | 30% | 36% |
| Quinnipiac[46] | July 22–27, 2010 | 14% | 29% | 27% |
| The Florida Poll[33] | July 24–28, 2010 | 11% | 30% | 28% |
| Rasmussen Reports[47] | August 2, 2010 | 16% | 35% | 31% |
| Ipsos/Florida Newspapers[31] | August 6–10, 2010 | 14% | 30% | 29% |
| Mason-Dixon[48] | August 9–11, 2010 | 17% | 24% | 40% |
| Quinnipiac[49] | August 11–16, 2010 | 12% | 29% | 33% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | August 21–22, 2010 | 8% | 34% | 41% |
| Rasmussen Reports[51] | August 25, 2010 | 4% | 45% | 42% |
| Rasmussen Reports[52] | September 1, 2010 | — | 45% | 44% |
| Sunshine State News[53] | September 1–7, 2010 | 42% | 44% | |
| CNN[54] | September 2–7, 2010 | 42% | 49% | |
| FOX News[55] | September 11, 2010 | 41% | 49% | |
| Reuters/Ipsos[56] | September 12, 2010 | 45% | 47% | |
| Mason-Dixon[57] | September 20–22, 2010 | 40% | 47% | |
| Rasmussen Reports[58] | September 22, 2010 | 50% | 44% | |
| Quinnipiac[59] | September 23–28, 2010 | 49% | 43% | |
| CNN[60] | September 24–28, 2010 | 47% | 45% | |
| Sunshine State News[61] | September 26 – October 3, 2010 | 44% | 42% | |
| TCPalm.com /Zogby[62] | September 27–29, 2010 | 39% | 41% | |
| Florida Chamber of Commerce[63] | September 27–30, 2010 | 46% | 42% | |
| Rasmussen Reports[64] | September 30, 2010 | 46% | 41% | |
| Mason-Dixon[65] | October 4–6, 2010 | 40% | 44% | |
| Miami-Dade College[66] | October 5, 2010 | 52% | 46% | |
| Quinnipiac[67] | October 6–8, 2010 | 45% | 44% | |
| Rasmussen Reports[64] | October 7, 2010 | 50% | 47% | |
| PPP[68] | October 9–10, 2010 | 41% | 46% | |
| Susquehanna[69] | October 12–13, 2010 | 45% | 48% | |
| Suffolk[70] | October 14–17, 2010 | 38% | 45% | |
| CNN Opinion Research[71] | October 15–19, 2010 | 49% | 46% | |
| Ipsos/St. Pete Times[72] | October 15–19, 2010 | 44% | 41% | |
| Rasmussen Reports[64] | October 18, 2010 | 50% | 44% | |
| Naples Daily News /Zogby[73] | October 18–21, 2010 | 39% | 43% | |
| Quinnipiac[74] | October 18–24, 2010 | 41% | 45% | |
| Susquehanna[75] | October 20, 2010 | 45% | 45% | |
| Susquehanna/Sunshine State News[76] | October 24–25, 2010 | 47% | 45% | |
| Univ. of South Fla. Polytechnic[77] | October 23–27, 2010 | 44% | 39% | |
| Quinnipiac[78] | October 25–31, 2010 | 43% | 44% | |
| Mason-Dixon[79] | October 26–27, 2010 | 43% | 46% | |
| Rasmussen Reports[64] | October 27, 2010 | 48% | 45% | |
| Susquehanna/Sunshine State[80] | October 29–31, 2010 | 46% | 49% | |
| Public Policy Polling[81] | October 30–31, 2010 | 47% | 48% |
Hypothetical Polls
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Dates administered | Bill McCollum | Alex Sink | Bud Chiles |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[49] | August 11–16, 2010 | 29% | 31% | 12% |
| Mason-Dixon[48] | August 9–11, 2010 | 35% | 37% | 13% |
| Ipsos/Florida Newspapers[31] | August 6–10, 2010 | 26% | 30% | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[47] | August 2, 2010 | 27% | 31% | 20% |
| The Florida Poll[33] | July 24–28, 2010 | 26% | 27% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac[46] | July 22–27, 2010 | 27% | 26% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[45] | July 16–18, 2010 | 23% | 37% | 14% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[44] | July 9–11, 2010 | 30% | 31% | 12% |
| Florida Chamber of Commerce[36] | June 9–13, 2010 | 30% | 26% | 15% |
| Quinnipiac[43] | June 7, 2010 | 33% | 25% | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports[42] | June 7, 2010 | 40% | 38% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[41] | May 16, 2010 | 43% | 35% | — |
| Mason-Dixon[38] | May 7, 2010 | 45% | 36% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[41] | March 18, 2010 | 47% | 36% | — |
| Public Policy Polling[82] | March 5–8, 2010 | 44% | 31% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[41] | February 18, 2010 | 48% | 35% | — |
| Fabrizo/McLaughlin & Associates[83] | January 31, 2010 | 41% | 32% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[41] | January 27, 2010 | 46% | 35% | — |
| Quinnipiac[84] | January 27, 2010 | 41% | 31% | <1% |
| Rasmussen Reports[85] | December 14, 2009 | 44% | 39% | — |
| Research 2000[39] | November 16–18, 2009 | 35% | 33% | — |
| St. Pete Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9[86] | October 25–28, 2009 | 37% | 38% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[87] | October 20, 2009 | 46% | 35% | — |
| Quinnipiac[88] | August 19, 2009 | 38% | 34% | 1% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[89] | August 4–5, 2009 | 48% | 37% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[90] | June 22, 2009 | 42% | 34% | — |
| Quinnipiac[91] | June 2–7, 2009 | 34% | 38% | 1% |
| Mason Dixon[92] | May 14–18, 2009 | 40% | 34% | — |
| Mason Dixon[93] | March 30 – April 1, 2009 | 36% | 35% | — |
Results
[edit]The 2010 governor's race was one of Florida's closest, decided by just over 60,000 votes. Unlike the concurrent Senate race, the governor's race remained in doubt late into the night. When polls closed, Scott had a lead, but as the night progressed, the margin narrowed. The next day, with over 99% of precincts reporting, Scott maintained about a 1% lead in the raw vote.[3] Despite a small number of still-uncounted ballots from Palm Beach County, Sink's chances of winning were negligible, as Scott was still ahead by over 50,000 – much more than the 3,000 uncounted ballots, and more importantly, still above the threshold of 0.5% to trigger a mandatory recount.[3] Sink conceded the day after the election.
Exit polls showed that Scott won among independents and the two candidates split the Hispanic vote.[3]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Scott | 2,619,335 | 48.87% | −3.31% | |
| Democratic | Alex Sink | 2,557,785 | 47.72% | +2.62% | |
| Independence | Peter Allen | 123,831 | 2.31% | ||
| Independent | C. C. Reed | 18,842 | 0.35% | ||
| Independent | Michael E. Arth | 18,644 | 0.35% | ||
| Independent | Daniel Imperato | 13,690 | 0.26% | ||
| Independent | Farid Khavari | 7,487 | 0.14% | ||
| Write-ins | 121 | 0.00% | |||
| Plurality | 61,550 | 1.15% | -5.92% | ||
| Turnout | 5,359,735 | ||||
| Republican gain from Independent | Swing | ||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]- Franklin (largest city: Eastpoint)
- Liberty (largest city: Bristol)
- Hillsborough (largest municipality: Tampa)
- Osceola (largest municipality: Kissimmee)
- Pinellas (largest municipality: St. Petersburg)
- St. Lucie (largest city: Port St. Lucie)
- Orange (Largest city: Orlando)
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "November 2, 2010 General Election". Florida Department of State. Retrieved May 15, 2022.
- ^ Martinez resigned his seat in December 2008, and Crist appointed Republican George LeMieux to serve the remainder of Martinez's term. LeMieux declined to run for election, and Crist was one of three major candidates in the election for U.S. Senate.
- ^ a b c d e f "Money, message, mad electorate make Scott Fla. gov". The Washington Post. November 3, 2010. Retrieved October 21, 2014.
- ^ Derby, Kevin (September 2, 2010). "TEA Party Backs Rick Scott for Governor in November". Sunshine State News. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
- ^ Dockery, Paula (June 5, 2014). "Paula Dockery: Tea party stands by Rick Scott". Florida Today. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
- ^ "Exit Polls – Florida 2010 Governor". CNN. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
- ^ "Florida Democrats revel in gained ground". Tampa Bay Times. August 25, 2008. Archived from the original on October 13, 2012. Retrieved August 29, 2010.
- ^ Cotterell, Bill (January 16, 2009). "Alex Sink won't run for U.S. Senate in 2010". Tallahassee Democrat.
- ^ Kam, Dara (July 24, 2010). "Low-profile Alex Sink faces even more obscure opponent in Democratic race for Florida governor". Palm Beach Post. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
- ^ a b "Florida Gubernatorial Primary Results". Politico. August 24, 2010. Retrieved August 24, 2010.
- ^ "Florida governor announces run for Senate". CNN. May 12, 2009. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
- ^ Deslatte, Aaron (July 30, 2010). "Ruling lets Rick Scott spend all he wants in governor's race vs. Bill McCollum". The Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
- ^ Deslatte, Aaron (August 25, 2010). "Rick Scott beats Bill McCollum to end nasty GOP governor's primary fight". The Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
- ^ "Florida Election Candidate Tracking System entry for Imperato". Archived from the original on July 29, 2010. Retrieved June 23, 2010.
- ^ "Governor's Race: Rick, Scott, Alex Sink save harshest word for last debate". Orlando Sentinel,
- ^ Baribeau, Simone. "Florida Republican Scott Elected Governor After Record Spending". Bloomberg. Retrieved December 9, 2011.
- ^ Madison, Lucy (April 14, 2011). "Rick Scott Wins Tight Florida Governor Race". CBS News. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
- ^ "Aide fired over Florida debate foul". CNN. October 26, 2010. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
- ^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ^ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ^ Mason Dixon
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ Sunshine State News
- ^ Mason Dixon
- ^ a b c Ipsos/Florida Newspapers [dead link]
- ^ Mason Dixon
- ^ a b c The Florida Poll Archived August 22, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b c Florida Chamber of Commerce
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ a b c Mason-Dixon
- ^ a b Research 2000
- ^ Strategic Vision
- ^ a b c d e Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b Quinnipiac
- ^ a b Ipsos/Reuters
- ^ a b Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b Quinnipiac
- ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b Mason-Dixon
- ^ a b Quinnipiac
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Sunshine State News
- ^ CNN Archived September 9, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ FOX News
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ CNN Archived September 30, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Sunshine State News
- ^ TCPalm.com / Zogby
- ^ Florida Chamber of Commerce
- ^ a b c d Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Miami-Dade College [permanent dead link]
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ PPP
- ^ Susquehanna
- ^ Suffolk Archived October 22, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ CNN Opinion Research
- ^ Ipsos/ St. Pete Times
- ^ Naples Daily News / Zogby
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ Susquehanna
- ^ Susquehanna/ Sunshine State News
- ^ Univ. of South Fla. Polytechnic Archived November 3, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Susquehanna/ Sunshine State
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Fabrizo/McLaughlin
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ St. Pete Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ Public Opinion Strategies
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ Mason Dixon
- ^ Mason Dixon
- ^ "Florida Department of State - Election Results". doe.dos.state.fl.us. Archived from the original on October 3, 2011.
External links
[edit]- Florida Division of Elections
- Florida Governor Candidates Archived November 30, 2008, at the Wayback Machine at Project Vote Smart
- Campaign contributions for 2010 Florida Governor from Follow the Money
- 2010 Florida Gubernatorial General Election: All Head-to-Head Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2010: Florida Governor from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 Florida Governor – McCollum vs. Sink from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 Florida Governor's Race from CQ Politics
- Race Profile in The New York Times
Official campaign websites (Archived)
