Division of Robertson

Robertson
Australian House of Representatives Division
Robertson; Australian House of Representatives Division
	Division of Robertson in New South Wales, as of the 2016 federal election
Created	1901
MP	Gordon Reid
Party	Labor
Namesake	Sir John Robertson
Electors	112,688 (2022)
Area	980 km2 (378.4 sq mi)
Demographic	Provincial

The Division of Robertson is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales.

Geography

Federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined since 1984, at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.^[1]

History

Sir John Robertson, the division's namesake

The division was proclaimed at Federation in 1900, and was one of the original 65 divisions to be contested at the first federal election in 1901. The division was named for the fifth Premier of New South Wales, Sir John Robertson.

The Division of Robertson was originally anchored in rural central NSW, encompassing the area around Dubbo, Mudgee and Wellington.

It moved eastward to take in Gosford in 1913, and since then it has been moved further eastward in successive redistributions. By 1969, it had moved to approximately its current position on the Central Coast, immediately north of the Hawkesbury River, and now includes none of its original territory. Nonetheless, it has retained the name of Robertson, in part because the Australian Electoral Commission is required to preserve the names of original electorates where possible.^[2]

Robertson encompasses the towns of Woy Woy, Gosford and Terrigal.

Two of its members have served as Senators prior or subsequent to their tenures on Robertson. Former Senator Belinda Neal was elected in Robertson in 2007 and Deborah O'Neill became a Senator shortly after losing Robertson in 2013.

In recent years, Robertson has been a bellwether electorate in federal elections, taking on a character similar to mortgage belt seats on Sydney's outer fringe. It has been held by a member of the party of government since the 1983 federal election. In addition, after Mike Kelly became the first opposition MP elected to represent Eden-Monaro (in 2016) since 1975, Robertson currently holds the record for the longest-running bellwether seat in Australia.

The current Member for Robertson, since the 2022 federal election, is Gordon Reid, a member of the Australian Labor Party.

The new bellwether

Ahead of the 2016 election, ABC psephologist Antony Green listed Robertson in his election guide as one of eleven which he classed as bellwether electorates. Prior to the 2016 election, the seat of Eden-Monaro was long regarded as Australia's most famous bellwether. From the 1972 election until the 2013 election – over 40 years – Eden-Monaro was won by the party that also won government. No longer the nation's famous bellwether seat after the Labor opposition won it at the 2016 election, the nation's new longest-running bellwether is Robertson – continually won by the party that won government since the 1983 election.^[3] This trend in Robertson would continue in the 2022 election, with Labor winning the seat and Government.

Members

Member	Party	Term	Notes
Henry Willis (1860–1950)	Free Trade	29 March 1901 – 1906	Lost seat. Later elected to the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Upper Hunter in 1910
	Anti-Socialist	1906 – 26 May 1909
	Liberal	26 May 1909 – 13 April 1910
William Johnson (1871–1916)	Labor	13 April 1910 – 31 May 1913	Lost seat
William Fleming (1874–1961)	Liberal	31 May 1913 – 17 February 1917	Previously held the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Upper Hunter. Lost seat
	Nationalist	17 February 1917 – March 1921
	Country	March 1921 – 16 December 1922
Sydney Gardner (1884–1965)	Nationalist	16 December 1922 – 7 May 1931	Served as Chief Government Whip in the House under Lyons. Lost seat
Sydney Gardner (1884–1965)	United Australia	7 May 1931 – 21 September 1940
Eric Spooner (1891–1952)	United Australia	21 September 1940 – 21 August 1943	Previously held the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Ryde and served as Deputy Leader of the United Australia Party in NSW. Served as minister under Menzies and Fadden. Lost seat
Thomas Williams (1897–1992)	Labor	21 August 1943 – 10 December 1949	Lost seat
Roger Dean (1913–1998)	Liberal	10 December 1949 – 30 September 1964	Resigned to become Administrator of the Northern Territory
William Bridges-Maxwell (1929–1992)	Liberal	5 December 1964 – 25 October 1969	Lost seat
Barry Cohen (1935–2017)	Labor	25 October 1969 – 19 February 1990	Served as minister under Hawke. Retired
Frank Walker (1942–2012)	Labor	24 March 1990 – 2 March 1996	Previously held the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Georges River. Served as minister under Keating. Lost seat
Jim Lloyd (1954–)	Liberal	2 March 1996 – 24 November 2007	Served as Chief Government Whip in the House under Howard. Served as minister under Howard. Lost seat
Belinda Neal (1963–)	Labor	24 November 2007 – 19 July 2010	Previously a member of the Senate. Lost preselection and retired
Deborah O'Neill (1961–)	Labor	21 August 2010 – 7 September 2013	Lost seat. Later appointed to the Senate in 2013
Lucy Wicks (1973–)	Liberal	7 September 2013 – 21 May 2022	Lost seat
Gordon Reid (1992–)	Labor	21 May 2022 – present	Incumbent

Election results

Graphical summary

Two-party-preferred vote results in Robertson

2022 Australian federal election: Robertson^[4]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal	Lucy Wicks	38,448	39.96	−6.90
	Labor	Gordon Reid	36,231	37.66	+3.56
	Greens	Shelly McGrath	9,642	10.02	+2.11
	One Nation	Billy O'Grady	3,679	3.82	+3.82
	United Australia	Barbara-Jane Murray	2,792	2.90	+0.09
	Animal Justice	Patrick Murphy	1,949	2.03	−0.05
	Indigenous-Aboriginal	Jeffrey Lawson	1,127	1.17	+1.17
	Informed Medical Options	Kate Mason	1,114	1.16	+1.16
	Liberal Democrats	Bentley Logan	736	0.76	+0.76
	Australian Citizens	Paul Borthwick	272	0.28	+0.28
	Federation	Alexandra Hafner	220	0.23	+0.23
Total formal votes			96,210	93.88	+1.12
Informal votes			6,274	6.12	−1.12
Turnout			102,484	91.07	−2.10
Two-party-preferred result
	Labor	Gordon Reid	50,277	52.26	+6.50
	Liberal	Lucy Wicks	45,933	47.74	−6.50
	Labor gain from Liberal		Swing	+6.50