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2024 Republican Party vice presidential candidate selection

Former president Donald Trump, the 2024 Republican nominee for President of the United States, considered several prominent Republicans and other individuals before selecting Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate on July 15, 2024, the first day of the 2024 Republican National Convention.[1] Vance formally won the vice presidential nomination. The Trump–Vance ticket defeated the Harris–Walz ticket in the 2024 presidential election. Vance became the youngest person elected Vice President since Richard Nixon in 1952 at 40 years old.

2024 Republican vice presidential nomination
← 2016 July 15, 2024 (2024-07-15) 2028 →
 
Nominee JD Vance
Home state Ohio
Previous Vice Presidential nominee

Mike Pence

 Vice Presidential nominee

JD Vance

Vance is the first Ohioan to appear on a major party presidential ticket since John Bricker in 1944, the first Ohio native to be elected to the vice presidency since Charles Dawes in 1924, the first to have facial hair since Charles Curtis in 1928—both of whom were Republicans—and the first veteran since Al Gore in 1992.[2][3] He was also the first Millennial, U.S. Marine Corps veteran, and veteran of the Iraq War and the wider War on Terror on a presidential ticket.[4][5]

Background

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See also: 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

Multiple reporters, political analysts and commentators noted that former president Donald Trump selecting former vice president Mike Pence to be his running mate once again would be highly unlikely following rifts between the two over the future of the Republican Party and Pence's attempts to distance himself from Trump.[6][7][8] In June 2022, the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack found that Trump said Pence "deserved" calls to be hanged on the day of the attack.[9] Pence has stated that he has no interest in seeking the vice presidential nomination again[10] and chose not to endorse Trump.[11]

Trump's anticipated status as the presumptive nominee was solidified upon his victories in the Super Tuesday primaries, which saw Nikki Haley, his last remaining opposition, drop out the following day. Haley refused to endorse Trump at the time, leaving her out of consideration in the view of multiple news and media outlets.[12] Trump became the presumptive nominee on March 12.[13]

Under the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution, members of the electoral college cannot vote for both a presidential and a vice presidential candidate who are from the same state as themselves, to prevent states from picking a favorite son. As Trump currently resides in Florida, the state's electors could not vote for both Trump and his running mate if the running mate also resided in Florida. In 2000, when Texas Governor George W. Bush picked Dick Cheney, who also lived in Texas, Cheney changed his voter registration to Wyoming (where he represented the state in the House of Representatives in the 1980s) to prevent this issue from arising with Texas' critical electoral votes.[14]

Vetting process and selection

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By June 2024, a shortlist of nine candidates emerged. Four of the candidates (Doug Burgum, Marco Rubio, Tim Scott and JD Vance) were reportedly sent "vetting materials" (although Rubio himself has denied this), while the Trump campaign requested information from four others (Ben Carson, Tom Cotton, Byron Donalds and Elise Stefanik).[15][16][17] On June 13, 2024, Trump indicated that Glenn Youngkin was also on his shortlist.[18]

Finalists

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On June 21, NBC News reported the three finalists were Burgum, Rubio and Vance.[19] Burgum and Vance were said to be Trump's main focus in his running mate search, while complications were noted in Rubio as a choice due to his residency in Florida.[20] CNN also projected that Scott was the fourth finalist to be Trump's running mate.[21]

Shortlist

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Final selection

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Trump and Vance stand together during the first night of the Republican National Convention

Trump had indicated that he would announce his selection during the Republican National Convention.[23] Before and during the convention, Rubio and Burgum were informed they would not be chosen.[24]

On June 22, NBC News reported that Trump had selected his vice presidential running mate, and they would "most likely" be at the debate on June 27.[25][26]

On July 8, it was reported by the Associated Press that the unnamed vice presidential nominee already had their own plane with its fuselage empty awaiting to be decorated with the nominee's name.[27] That same day, Jason Miller stated that the reveal announcement could come in the week prior to the convention while Trump said that the announcement would come "probably a little before the convention, but not much. It could even be during the convention that we'd do it".[27]

Announcement

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Donald Trump selected JD Vance as his running mate on July 15, 2024,[1] becoming the first major-party candidate to announce his running mate during his party's convention since George H. W. Bush chose Dan Quayle in 1988.[28] Vance was serving his first term as senator for Ohio. After he was elected as Vice President, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine appointed a replacement for Vance who will serve until December 15, 2026.[29]

Reception

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One week after the Republican National Convention, Vance had a net positive rating of minus 6 points, making him the least-liked vice presidential candidate since 1980.[30] On July 22, 2024, Tim Alberta of The Atlantic reported that some members of Trump's inner circle even began questioning whether Vance should be replaced.[30] A number of House Republicans also criticized Vance over his isolationist foreign policy positions, lack of experience, and inability to expand the Republican coalition beyond Trump's base.[31]

At the end of July, a 2021 interview of Vance with Tucker Carlson of Fox News triggered further backlash at his selection. In the interview, Vance attacked women without biological children, including Vice President Kamala Harris, as "childless cat ladies" unhappy with their choices and as a result, wanting to make the rest of the country miserable too. His comments drew condemnation from numerous childless women including Jennifer Aniston and Meghan McCain, daughter of the late Senator John McCain, and also angered women voters. Ella Emhoff, Kamala Harris's step-daughter, staunchly defended her as well as Kerstin Emhoff, ex-wife of the Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff.[32]

Media speculation on possible candidates

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Speculative shortlists by Trump have included various names,[33][34] and have evolved throughout the campaign. Trump's primary criterion for his running mate is loyalty, according to multiple sources.[35][36][37][38] In early 2024, Reuters reported that Trump has been encouraged by associates to consider a woman or black man as his running mate.[39][40][41]

Reportedly in 2022, Trump had "repeatedly" discussed the possibility of choosing Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene as his running mate.[42] Greene also claimed that she had been in talks with Trump to become his running mate.[43] On March 6, 2023, multiple sources close to Trump, as reported by Axios, narrowed the list down to four major contenders: Nikki Haley; Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas, former White House press secretary for Trump; Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota; and Kari Lake, candidate for Arizona governor in 2022 who lost narrowly to Katie Hobbs. On July 3, 2023, Politico reported that sources close to Sanders said that she was not interested in being chosen as the vice presidential nominee as "she intends to serve as governor for eight years."[44] On August 24, 2023, Trump in a media interview mentioned Noem, Governor Henry McMaster of South Carolina, and former primary opponent and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy as potential vice president picks.[45]

Trump acknowledged a total of six names on his vice presidential shortlist at a Fox News townhall with Laura Ingraham in February 2024: Kristi Noem, Vivek Ramaswamy, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, Representative Byron Donalds of Florida, and former Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii.[46] Of those six, DeSantis declined to be considered that same month,[47] and while Ramaswamy was reportedly ruled out in March,[48] he was back in consideration as of May.[49] In March, Trump estimated that there were a total of 15 people on his shortlist in an interview with Newsmax. Three additional names were reported to have been revealed: former HUD Secretary Ben Carson, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, and Representative Elise Stefanik of New York.[50] In late March, four others were added to the list: Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota, Senator Katie Britt of Alabama, and Senator JD Vance of Ohio.[51] The chances of Noem being selected reportedly waned in April 2024 because of her hardline stance on abortion and backlash to a revelation in her autobiography that she shot and killed her pet dog.[52][53][54] As of April 30, Sanders reportedly had "slipp[ed] down the list" for not endorsing Trump quickly enough.[55]

On July 11, 2024, it was reported that Donald Trump Jr. would speak at the 2024 Republican National Convention preceding the vice presidential pick, prompting speculation that Vance is the selected vice presidential candidate, as he and Trump Jr. have a close relationship.[56]

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump led to speculation over its potential impact on Trump's decision on the vice presidential nominee and the manner in which the selection would be announced.[57]

Federal executive branch officials

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Members of Congress

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Governors

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Others

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Declined to be considered

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Ruled out by Trump

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Opinion polling

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Vice presidential polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a]
Greg Abbott
Doug Burgum
Tucker Carlson
Ben Carson
Liz Cheney
Chris Christie
Tom Cotton
Ted Cruz
Ron DeSantis
Byron Donalds
Tulsi Gabbard
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Nikki Haley
Josh Hawley
Larry Hogan
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kari Lake
Kristi Noem
Mike Pence
Mike Pompeo
Vivek Ramaswamy
Mitt Romney
Marco Rubio
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Rick Scott
Tim Scott
Elise Stefanik
Donald Trump Jr.
JD Vance
Others
Undecided
Yahoo News/YouGov June 28 – July 1, 2024 633 (RV) 4% 3% 6% 1% 3% 1% 0% 3% 11% 6% 4% 9% 2% 5% 18%[b] 22%
New York Post May 15–16, 2024 1,660 (RV) 3% 3% 4% 12% 3% 5% 4% 2% 8% 4% 9% 2% 3% 11%[c] 25%
Leger/Canadian Press March 23–25, 2024 285 (A) 1% 10% 22% 10% 4% 11% 9% 4% 6%[d] 24%
YouGov February 26 – March 3, 2024 380 (RV) 3% 8% 3% 13% 0% 11% 10% 1% 5% 7% 12% 4% 9% 2% 2% 11%[e] 9%
Leger/Canadian Press February 23–25, 2024 300 (A) 2% 5% 21% 7% 4% 16% 9% 4% 7%[f] 26%
YouGov February 6–9, 2024 365 (RV) 4% 8% 5% 18% 20% 3% 9% 4% 7% 6% 2% 4%[g] 11%
Leger/Canadian Press January 26–28, 2024 299 (A) 5% 17% 14% 2% 20% 8% 3% 3%[h] 28%
Morning Consult/Politico March 18–21, 2022 2,005 (RV) 8% 3% 1% 6% 14% 8% 1% 2% 1% 14% 2% 10% 3% 1% 2% 8% 17%[i]
Hypothetical polling
With Trump as the nominee
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of
error
Tudor Dixon
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Nikki Haley
Kari Lake
Kristi Noem
Mike Pence
Kim Reynolds
Tim Scott
Elise Stefanik
Others
NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ May 25–26, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3% 2% 6% 12% 5% 3% 15% 1% 13% 5% 38%[j]

In March 2023, the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) held a poll on vice president, Kari Lake topped the poll with 20%, Ron DeSantis on 14% and Nikki Haley on 10%.[95] Turning Point Action held a straw poll in July 2023 where Lake finished first with 30%, Byron Donalds in second with 24%, and Vivek Ramaswamy in third with 22%.[96]

The vice presidential straw poll held at CPAC in February 2024 saw Ramaswamy and Kristi Noem tied for first place with 15% each, with Tulsi Gabbard at second with 9%, followed by Elise Stefanik and Tim Scott with 8%. Donalds and Lake received 7% and 6% respectively, while DeSantis, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and Ben Carson each earned 5% of the vote. Other candidates listed who did not reach 5% were Haley, Tucker Carlson, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and JD Vance.[97]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Don't care who Trump picks" with 14%; "Someone else" with 4%
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 11%
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 6%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 11%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 17%
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 38%

References

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