The 2015 Ceuta Assembly election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 6th Assembly of the Autonomous City of Ceuta. All 25 seats in the Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in thirteen autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
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All 25 seats in the Assembly of Ceuta 13 seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Registered | 61,782  2.4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 29,671 (48.0%) 3.4 pp | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Electoral system
editThe Assembly of Ceuta was the top-tier administrative and governing body of the autonomous city of Ceuta. Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered and residing in the municipality of Ceuta and in full enjoyment of their political rights, as well as resident non-national European citizens and those whose country of origin allowed Spanish nationals to vote in their own elections by virtue of a treaty.[1][2][3]
The 25 members of the Assembly of Ceuta were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution.[1][2][3]
The Mayor-President was indirectly elected by the plenary assembly. A legal clause required that mayoral candidates earned the vote of an absolute majority of members, or else the candidate of the most-voted party in the assembly was to be automatically appointed to the post. In case of a tie, a toss-up would determine the appointee.[3]
The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of a determined amount of the electors registered in Ceuta. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[1][2]
Opinion polls
editThe table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 13 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Ceuta.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | 
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|
|
|
PDSC | LV–GV | 
|
|
MDyC | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Assembly election | 24 May 2015 | — | 48.0 | 45.7 13 |
13.3 4 |
14.0 4 |
1.1 0 |
1.8 0 |
1.7 0 |
– | 6.0 1 |
11.2 3 |
31.7 |
| Infortécnica/Ceuta TV[p 1][p 2] | 12–15 May 2015 | 371 | ? | 58.3 16/18 |
14.3 3/4 |
11.7 2/3 |
– | – | – | – | 9.3 2/3 |
– | 44.0 |
| Insobel/El Pueblo[p 3] | 22 Apr–8 May 2015 | 600 | ? | ? 17/18 |
? 2 |
? 4/5 |
– | – | – | – | ? 1 |
? 0/1 |
? |
| CIS[p 4][p 5] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 300 | ? | 49.5 14 |
11.2 3 |
22.6 6 |
2.0 0 |
– | – | – | 6.8 2 |
– | 26.9 |
| Sociópolis[p 6][p 7] | 15 Apr 2015 | 401 | ? | 52.0 15/16 |
7.5 2 |
17.0 4/5 |
3.5 0 |
– | – | – | 5.7 1/2 |
5.8 1/2 |
35.0 |
| Sigma Dos/El Faro[p 8][p 9] | 8–14 Apr 2015 | 1,000 | ? | 54.3 15/16 |
8.8 2 |
16.2 4/5 |
– | – | – | – | 9.6 2 |
4.4 0/1 |
38.1 |
| Infortécnica/Ceuta TV[p 10][p 11] | 6 Nov 2014 | 406 | ? | 62.0 16/17 |
16.5 4/5 |
14.8 3/4 |
– | – | – | 6.7 0/2 |
– | – | 45.5 |
| Sigma Dos/El Faro[p 12][p 13] | 23 Sep–7 Oct 2014 | 1,000 | ? | 54.6 15/16 |
13.7 4 |
16.4 4/5 |
– | – | – | 6.2 1 |
– | – | 38.2 |
| 2014 EP election | 25 May 2014 | — | 25.9 | 40.3 13 |
9.0 3 |
22.5 7 |
6.8 2 |
– | – | 3.7 0 |
2.4 0 |
– | 17.8 |
| SyM Consulting[p 14][p 15] | 22–27 Jan 2014 | 372 | 79.8 | 41.0 16/17 |
9.6 3 |
12.0 4 |
4.8 0/1 |
3.6 0 |
6.0 2 |
– | – | – | 29.0 |
| SyM Consulting[p 16][p 17] | 17–22 Sep 2013 | 432 | 66.1 | 42.1 13/14 |
6.4 3/4 |
16.2 4/5 |
8.5 2/3 |
2.1 0 |
5.3 0/1 |
– | – | – | 25.9 |
| SyM Consulting[p 18][p 19] | 1 Jun 2013 | ? | 58.0 | 54.1 15/16 |
16.6 5/6 |
11.7 3/4 |
6.0 0/1 |
0.7 0 |
4.7 0 |
– | – | – | 37.5 |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | — | 53.2 | 65.9 19 |
5.4 1 |
20.3 5 |
3.3 0 |
– | – | – | – | – | 45.6 |
| 2011 Assembly election | 22 May 2011 | — | 51.4 | 65.2 18 |
14.3 4 |
11.7 3 |
2.7 0 |
2.3 0 |
1.9 0 |
– | – | – | 50.9 |
Results
edit | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 13,372 | 45.74 | –19.42 | 13 | –5 | |
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 4,104 | 14.04 | +2.34 | 4 | +1 | |
| Caballas Coalition (Caballas) | 3,881 | 13.27 | –1.05 | 4 | ±0 | |
| Movement for Dignity and Citizenship (MDyC) | 3,265 | 11.17 | New | 3 | +3 | |
| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) | 1,758 | 6.01 | New | 1 | +1 | |
| Democratic and Social Party of Ceuta (PDSC) | 531 | 1.82 | –0.52 | 0 | ±0 | |
| The Greens–Green Group of Ceuta (LV–GV) | 511 | 1.75 | –0.10 | 0 | ±0 | |
| United Left (IU) | 461 | 1.58 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Vox (Vox) | 356 | 1.22 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 329 | 1.13 | –1.53 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Ceutan Free Party (PLCeutí) | 200 | 0.68 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 468 | 1.60 | +0.08 | |||
| Total | 29,236 | 25 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 29,236 | 98.53 | –0.74 | |||
| Invalid votes | 435 | 1.47 | +0.74 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 29,671 | 48.03 | –3.34 | |||
| Abstentions | 32,111 | 51.97 | +3.34 | |||
| Registered voters | 61,782 | |||||
| Sources[4][5][6] | ||||||
References
edit- Opinion poll sources
- ^ "Ceuta. Del 12 al 15 de mayo de 2015. Estudio de opinión municipal" (PDF). Infortécnica (in Spanish). 16 May 2015.
- ^ "CEUTA, Mayo 2015. Sondeo Infortécnica". Electograph (in Spanish). 16 May 2015.
- ^ "CEUTA, Mayo 2015. Sondeo Insobel". Electograph (in Spanish). 18 May 2015.
- ^ "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Ciudad Autónoma de Ceuta (Estudio nº 3077. Marzo-Abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
- ^ "Sánchez se lanza al ataque como "única alternativa a la derecha"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
- ^ "Sociópolis augura otra mayoría del PP (15-16) con la entrada de Ciudadanos y el MDyC en la Asamblea". Ceutaldia (in Spanish). 15 April 2015.
- ^ "CEUTA, Marzo 2015. Sondeo Sociópolis". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 April 2015.
- ^ "El PSOE se enreda en "el trámite"". El Faro Digital (in Spanish). 22 April 2015. Archived from the original on 22 July 2015.
- ^ "CEUTA, Abril 2015. Sondeo SigmaDos". Electograph (in Spanish). 23 April 2015.
- ^ "Ciudad autónoma de Ceuta. Octubre de 2014. Estudio de opinión municipal" (PDF). Infortécnica (in Spanish). 6 November 2014.
- ^ "CEUTA, Octubre 2014. Infortécnica". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 November 2014.
- ^ "El PP revalidaría en 2015 su mayoría absoluta". El Faro Digital (in Spanish). 6 November 2014. Archived from the original on 16 December 2014.
- ^ "CEUTA, Octubre 2014. Sigma Dos". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 November 2014.
- ^ "Estimación Tercera Oleada Ceuta. Enero 2014". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 30 January 2014.
- ^ "CEUTA, Enero 2014. SyM Consulting". Electograph (in Spanish). 29 January 2014.
- ^ "Estimación Segunda Oleada Ceuta. Septiembre 2013 (1)". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 September 2013.
- ^ "Estimación Segunda Oleada Ceuta. Septiembre 2013 (2)". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 September 2013.
- ^ "Estimación Primera Oleada Ceuta. Mayo 2013". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 1 June 2013.
- ^ "Comparativa entre oleada de Mayo y Septiembre de estimación directa de voto". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 28 September 2013.
- Other
- ^ a b c General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985. Official State Gazette (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
- ^ a b c "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
- ^ a b c Statute of Autonomy of Ceuta of 1995. Official State Gazette (Law 1) (in Spanish). 13 March 1995. Retrieved 7 April 2018.
- ^ "Acuerdo de 1 de julio de 2015, de la Junta Electoral Central, por el que se procede a la publicación del resumen de los resultados de las elecciones locales convocadas por Real Decreto 233/2015, de 30 de marzo, y celebradas el 24 de mayo de 2015, según los datos que figuran en las actas de proclamación remitidas por cada una de las Juntas Electorales de Zona. Provincias: Valencia, Valladolid, Zamora, Zaragoza, Ceuta y Melilla" (PDF) (in Spanish). Boletín Oficial del Estado. Retrieved 22 October 2021.
- ^ "Electoral Results Consultation. Municipal. May 2015. City of Ceuta". Ministry of the Interior (in Spanish). Retrieved 3 April 2018.
- ^ "Elecciones Municipales y Autonómicas en Ceuta (1979-2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 26 October 2021.