Abstract
This paper presents an outline methodology and an operational framework for assessing and mapping the risk of death or serious harm to people from flooding, covering death and physical injuries as a direct and immediate consequence of deep and/or fast flowing floodwaters (usually by drowning), and deaths and physical injuries associated with the flood event (but occurring in the immediate aftermath). The main factors that affect death or injury to people during floods include flow velocity, flow depth, and the degree to which people are exposed to the flood. The exposure potential is related to such factors as the “suddenness” of flooding (and amount of flood warning), the extent of the floodplain, people’s location on the floodplain, and the character of their accommodation. In addition, risks to people are affected by social factors including their vulnerability and behaviour. A methodology is described for estimating the likely annual number of deaths/injuries. This is based on defining zones of different flood hazard and, for each zone, estimating the total number of people located there, the proportion that are likely to be exposed to a flood, and the proportion of those exposed who are likely to be injured or killed during a flood event. The results for each zone are combined to give an overall risk for each flood cell and/or community. The objective of the research reported here is to develop a method which could be applied using a map-based approach in which flood risks to people are calculated and displayed spatially for selected areas or communities. The information needed for each part of the process is described in the paper, and the further research to provide the required information is identified.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
S. R. Abt R. J. Whittler A. Taylor D.J. Love (1989) ArticleTitleHuman stability in a high flood hazard zone Water Res. Bull. 25 881–890
InstitutionalAuthorNameBritish Standard Institution. (1996) BS 8800:1996 Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems British Standard Institution London
A. E. Collins (1920) Report, Etc., of the City Engineer to the General Purpose Committee with respect to River Widening Norwich City Engineer’s Office Norwich
Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and Environment Agency: 2002, Risk, Performance and Uncertainty in Flood and Coastal Defence – A Review, R&D Technical Report FD2302/TR1. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, Oxford.
Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and Environment Agency: 2002b, Catchment Flood Management Plans, Development of a Modelling and Decision Support Framework (MDSF): MDSF Procedures and Technical Annexes, Reports EX4495 and EX4497. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, Oxford.
InstitutionalAuthorNameDEFRA (Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) (2003a) FCDPAG 4 – Approaches to Risk Department of the Environment. Food and Rural Affairs London
InstitutionalAuthorNameDEFRA (Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) and Environment Agency (2003) Risk Assessment of Flood and Coastal Defence for Strategic Planning (RASP): Concept Note and Discussion Document HR Wallingford. Wallingford Oxford
DETR (Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions): 2000, Guidelines for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management, Revised Departmental Guidance, Report by DETR, the Environment Agency and IEH. The Stationery Office, London.
InstitutionalAuthorNameDTLR (Department of Transport, Local Government and the Regions) (2001) Planning Policy Guidance Note 25: Development and Flood Risk DTLR London
European Commission: 2000, First Report on the Harmonisation of Risk Assessment Procedures, DG Health & Consumer Protection. European Commission, Brussels.
S. N. Jonkman P. H. A. J. M. Van Gelder J. K. Vrijling (2002) Loss of life models for sea and river floods B. Wu Z.-Y. Wang G. Wang G. H.. Huang G J. Huang (Eds) Flood Defence 2002 Science Press New York 196–206
E. C. Penning-Rowsell C. Johnson S. Tunstall S. Tapsell J. Morris B. Chatterton J. A. Coker H. Green C. (2003) The Benefits of Flood Alleviation and Coast Defence: Data and Techniques for 2003 Middlesex University Flood Hazard Research Centre London
E. C. Penning-Rowsell T. L. Wilson (2003) The health effects of flooding: A European overview Report for the cCASHh project. Middlesex University Flood Hazard Research Centre London
Ramsbottom, D., Penning-Rowsell, E. C. and Floyd, P.: 2003, Flood risks to people: Phase 1. R&D Technical Report FD 2317. Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and Environment Agency, London.
Risk and Policy Analysts: 2003, The Appraisal of Human-Related Intangible Impacts of Flooding, DEFRA/Environment Agency R&D Report FD2005. Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and Environment Agency, London.
Roberts. Son. (1912) Illustrated Record of the Great Flood, August 1912 Roberts & Son Norwich
InstitutionalAuthorNameRoyal Society. (1992) Risk: Analysis, Perception and Management Royal Society London
S. M. Tapsell E. C. Penning-Rowsell S. M. Tunstall T. L. Wilson (2002) ArticleTitleVulnerability to flooding: Health and social dimensions Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond 360 1511–1525
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Penning-Rowsell, E., Floyd, P., Ramsbottom, D. et al. Estimating Injury and Loss of Life in Floods: A Deterministic Framework. Nat Hazards 36, 43–64 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-4538-7
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-4538-7