Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment of Flash Floods for Petra Catchment Area Using Hydrological and Analytical Hierarchy (AHP) Modeling
<p>Location map of the study area.</p> "> Figure 2
<p>(<b>a</b>). Geological map, (<b>b</b>). soil texture, (<b>c</b>). soil hydrological group, (<b>d</b>). DEM (<b>e</b>). slope and (<b>f</b>). land use.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Flowchart showing the methodology for this study.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>Sub-catchments of the study area.</p> "> Figure 5
<p>Annual rainfall (mm) with the gauge stations.</p> "> Figure 6
<p>Long-term annual rainfall of (<b>a</b>) Wadi Musa and (<b>b</b>) Petra rainfall gauging stations with a nine-year moving average.</p> "> Figure 7
<p>IDF curves: (<b>a</b>) Wadi Musa and (<b>b</b>) Petra rain gauging stations.</p> "> Figure 8
<p>CN distribution value for the Petra catchment.</p> "> Figure 9
<p>The flood inflow hydrographs of the Petra catchment outlet created by HEC-1 for the different return periods (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 1000 years) with rainfall intensities of 10, 30, 60 and 180 min and 24 h.</p> "> Figure 10
<p>Perpendicular cross sections and water depth along the Wadi course.</p> "> Figure 11
<p>Flood inundation map with 1 and 24 h’ rainfall intensity for the return periods of 10, 25, 50, 100, and 1000 years.</p> "> Figure 12
<p>The thematic standardized maps for the hazard and vulnerability indicators, (<b>a</b>). Rainfall Intensities, (<b>b</b>). Elevation, (<b>c</b>). Slope, (<b>d</b>). Flood Control Points, (<b>e</b>). Drainage Density, (<b>f</b>). Land Use/Land Cover, (<b>g</b>). Cropland, (<b>h</b>). Transportation, and (<b>i</b>). Population Density.</p> "> Figure 13
<p>Flood hazard, vulnerability and risk maps.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- To prepare an estimate of the flood hydrograph for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100- and 500-year, 24 h storm for Petra catchment area.
- To develop a hydrological map of current flood risk, potential impacts of flash floods and floodplain zone maps.
- To delineate the inundation areas at different degrees of flood hazards.
2. Materials and Methods
Study Area
3. Climate
4. Geology and Soil
5. Topography and Slope
6. Land Use and Land Cover
7. Methodology and Data Processing
8. Catchment Delineation and Their Characteristics
9. Analysis of Rainfall Data
10. Hydrological Analysis
11. Hydraulic Model (HEC-RAS)
12. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
13. Results and Discussion
13.1. Elevation (E) and Slope (S)
13.2. Flood Risk Parameters
13.3. Hazard Indicators
13.3.1. Rainfall Intensity (RI)
13.3.2. Flood Control Points (FC)
13.3.3. Drainage Density (DD)
13.3.4. Landuse (LU)
13.3.5. Vulnerability Indicators
13.3.6. Cropland (CL)
13.3.7. Transportations (Tr)
13.3.8. Population (P)
13.4. Flood Hazard Map
14. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
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Date | Flood | Flood Return Period |
---|---|---|
April, 1963 | The water level reached an elevation of more than 10 m above the Wadi bed | 100-year return period |
December 1991 | Flood water was about 10 m in some areas of the Siq passage | 50-year return period |
January, 1995 | The water level reached an elevation of more than 12 m above the Wadi bed | 10-year return period |
November, 1996 | the water level reached an elevation of more than 3 m above the Wadi bed | 10-year return period |
January, 2001 | The water level reached an elevation of more than 3 m above the Wadi bed | 10-year return period |
May, 2018 | The water level reached an elevation of more than 2 m above the Wadi bed | 10-year return period |
November, 2018 | Flood water was about 3 m in some areas of the Siq passage | 100-year return period |
Parameter | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec | Yearly |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maximum Rainfall Amount in 24 h (mm) | 69 | 35 | 65 | 32 | 7.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 23 | 51 | 69 |
Mean No. of Rainy Days (Rainfall ≥ 0.1 mm) | 4.4 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 20.4 |
Mean No. of Days with Precipitation ≥ 1.0 mm | 4.5 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2 | 3.8 | 21.3 |
Mean No. of Days With Rainfall ≥ 10.0 mm | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 6.7 |
Mean No. of Snowy Days | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 |
Satellite | Date of Acquisition | Bands/Color | Grid Cell Size (m) |
---|---|---|---|
Landsat 9 OLI2 | 27 June 2022 | Visible/NIR/SWIR | 30 |
Sub- Catchment | Sub-Catchment Area km2 | Sub-Catchment Slope (BS) (m/m) | Basin Length (m) | Basin Curve Number (CN) | Max. Flow Slope (MFS) (m/m) | Max. Flow Distance (MFD) (m) | Max Stream Length (MSL) m | Max Stream Slope (MSS) m/m |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A | 15.45 | 0.2241 | 6544.77 | 87.5 | 0.0662 | 7193.11 | 8110.45 | 0.0621 |
B | 25.32 | 0.2154 | 7538.06 | 86.9 | 0.0595 | 10,114.61 | 9742.15 | 0.0584 |
C | 9.5 | 0.2241 | 5509.12 | 86.2 | 0.0836 | 7193.11 | 6783.78 | 0.0831 |
D | 28.76 | 0.3896 | 7307.12 | 94.7 | 0.0862 | 10,895.56 | 10,205.04 | 0.0755 |
HSG | Land Use Description | CN | Area km2 | CN × A |
---|---|---|---|---|
C | Bare Rocks | 95 | 18.429 | 1750.746 |
C | Wadi Deposits | 89 | 0.024 | 2.160 |
C | Bare Soil | 91 | 0.158 | 14.353 |
C | Field Crops | 88 | 0.024 | 2.135 |
B | Bare Rocks | 95 | 27.055 | 2570.246 |
B | Bare Soil | 86 | 4.271 | 367.272 |
B | Wadi Deposits | 85 | 1.395 | 118.594 |
B | Pastures | 79 | 20.249 | 1599.667 |
B | Forest | 66 | 1.456 | 96.089 |
B | Urban Fabric | 98 | 5.569 | 545.739 |
B | Field Crops | 81 | 0.413 | 33.413 |
Average CN = 86.63 |
Time | Storm Return Periods and Peak Flows | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 Years | 10 Years | 25 Years | 50 Years | 100 Years | 1000 Years | |
10 min | 0.407 | 1.53 | 4.67 | 8.16 | 12.37 | 30.74 |
30 min | 3.9 | 9.18 | 18.48 | 27.07 | 36.7 | 73.77 |
1 h | 10.36 | 20.01 | 35.62 | 48.92 | 63.23 | 115.51 |
3 h | 32.28 | 52.7 | 78.94 | 105.07 | 129.15 | 213.3 |
24 h | 140.69 | 166.23 | 266.61 | 319.74 | 428.42 | 553.14 |
Time | Storm Return Periods and Volumes | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 Years | 10 Years | 25 Years | 50 Years | 100 Years | 1000 Years | |
10 min | 14,691.6 | 41,989.5 | 94,257 | 142,974 | 198,418.5 | 418,541.4 |
30 min | 82,455.3 | 156,654.4 | 275,016.6 | 376,238.7 | 486,549.9 | 902,259 |
1 h | 172,219.5 | 293,292.9 | 474,255 | 624,314.7 | 784,572.3 | 1,369,326.6 |
3 h | 436,208.4 | 666,694.8 | 959,994.9 | 1,252,279.8 | 1,522,422 | 2,475,441 |
24 h | 1,652,352.3 | 1,940,679.9 | 3,086,547.3 | 3,701,084.4 | 4,973,926.5 | 6,452,630.1 |
Flood Risk (FR) | ||
---|---|---|
Hazard Indices (HI) | Vulnerability Indices (VI) | |
Conditions | Triggering | Social, Economic, Physical |
Elevation (E) | Rainfall Intensities (RI) | Population Density (PD) |
Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) | Cropland (CL) | |
Slope (S) | ||
Drainage Density (DD) | Transportation (Tr) | |
Flood Control Points (FCP) |
Scale | Judgment of Preference | Description |
---|---|---|
1 | Equal Importance | Two factors contribute equally to the objective |
3 | Moderate Importance | Experience and judgment slightly favor one over the other |
5 | Essential Importance | Experience and judgment strongly important favor one over the other |
7 | Very/strong Importance | Experience and judgment strongly important favor one over the other |
9 | Extreme Importance | The evidence favoring one over the other is of the highest possible validity |
2, 4, 6, 8 | Intermediate preference between adjacent scales | When compromise is needed |
1/3, 1/5, 1/7, 1/9 | Values of inverse comparison | When compromise is needed |
Parameters | RI | E | S | FC | DD | LU | CL | TR | P |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RI | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
E | 0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
S | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
FC | 0.33 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
DD | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
LU | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
CL | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
TR | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 1 |
P | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 1 |
Sum | 3.27 | 6.60 | 10.07 | 8.33 | 9.93 | 23.00 | 21.67 | 27.00 | 29.00 |
Parameters | RI | E | S | T | DD | LU | CL | TR | P | Mean | Wi |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RI | 0.31 | 0.45 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 0.30 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 2.71 |
E | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.30 | 0.12 | 0.30 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 1.89 |
S | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 1.18 |
T | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1.16 |
DD | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1.28 |
LU | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.40 |
CL | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.53 |
TR | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.33 |
P | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.31 |
N | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Random Index (RAI) | 0 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.90 | 1.12 | 1.24 | 1.32 | 1.41 | 1.45 | 1.49 |
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Al Kuisi, M.; Al Azzam, N.; Hyarat, T.; Farhan, I. Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment of Flash Floods for Petra Catchment Area Using Hydrological and Analytical Hierarchy (AHP) Modeling. Water 2024, 16, 2283. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16162283
Al Kuisi M, Al Azzam N, Hyarat T, Farhan I. Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment of Flash Floods for Petra Catchment Area Using Hydrological and Analytical Hierarchy (AHP) Modeling. Water. 2024; 16(16):2283. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16162283
Chicago/Turabian StyleAl Kuisi, Mustafa, Naheel Al Azzam, Tasneem Hyarat, and Ibrahim Farhan. 2024. "Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment of Flash Floods for Petra Catchment Area Using Hydrological and Analytical Hierarchy (AHP) Modeling" Water 16, no. 16: 2283. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16162283