Climate Change over the Mediterranean Region: Local Temperature and Precipitation Variations at Five Pilot Sites
<p>Location of the five pilot sites.</p> "> Figure 2
<p>Annual mean temperature in terms of 10-year moving average projected by the 17 RCMs for all pilot sites in the period 1976–2098. The two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are reported. The range of the <span class="html-italic">y</span>-axis in all subplots is the same to easily compare results.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Annual precipitation in terms of 10-year moving average projected by the 17 RCMs for all pilot sites in the period 1976–2098. The two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are reported. The range of the <span class="html-italic">y</span>-axis in all subplots is the same to easily compare results.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>Maximum duration of heat waves in the reference period and at short-(ST), medium-(MT) and long-term (LT), under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The solid line represents the observation. The median values of each period are reported, the box-whisker plots represent the variability between the 17 RCMs. The range of the <span class="html-italic">y</span>-axis in all subplots is the same to easily compare results.</p> "> Figure 5
<p>Peak temperature of heat waves in the reference period and at short-(ST), medium-(MT) and long-term (LT), under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The solid line represents the observation. The median values of each period are reported, the box-whisker plots represent the variability between the 17 RCMs. The range of the <span class="html-italic">y</span>-axis in all subplots is the same to easily compare results.</p> "> Figure 6
<p>Maximum number of consecutive dry days in the reference period and at short-(ST), medium-(MT) and long-term (LT), under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The solid line represents the observation. The median values of each period are reported, the box-whisker plots represent the variability between the 17 RCMs. The range of the <span class="html-italic">y</span>-axis in all subplots is the same to easily compare results.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Pilot Sites and Historical Data
2.2. Climate Model Data
2.3. Data Analysis Methods
3. Results
3.1. Historical Data
3.2. Climate Model Projections
3.2.1. Heat Waves: Duration and Peak Temperature
3.2.2. Consecutive Dry Days
4. Discussion
4.1. PS-GRE
4.2. PS-POR
4.3. PS-SPA
4.4. PS-TUN
4.5. PS-TUR
5. Summary and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Nation | Greece | Spain | Portugal | Tunisia | Turkey |
Pilot site name | Tympaki | Requena-Utiel | Guadiana Basin | Grombalia | Konya |
Abbreviation | PS-GRE | PS-SPA | PS-POR | PS-TUN | PS-TUR |
Size (km2) | 58 | 1285 | 11,594 | 391 | 50,000 |
Population | 25,000 | 30,000 | 445,000 | 201,000 | 3,000,000 |
Location | Coastal | Inland | Inland with outlet to the sea | Coastal | Inland |
Latitude extension | 35.03, 35.13 | 39.27, 39.74 | 37.15, 39.35 | 36.47, 36.78 | 36.80, 39.55 |
Longitude extension | 24.70, 24.86 | −1.53, −0.78 | −8.20, −6.90 | 10.40, 10.64 | 31.05, 35.05 |
Elevation range (m a.s.l.) | 0, 470 | 365, 1235 | 0, 985 | 0, 130 | 900, 3260 |
PS-GRE | PS-SPA | PS-POR | PS-TUN | PS-TUR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
N° of precipitation gauge | 2 | 8 | 60 | 6 | 18 |
N° of temperature gauge | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
Source of precipitation/temperature data | National Service | National Service (P, T); WFD (T) | National Service | National Service (P, T); WFD (T) | National Service |
GCM | RCM | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Institute | Model | Institute | Model | |
1 | CNRM-CERFACS | CNRM-CM5 | CLMcom | CCLM4-8-17 |
2 | “ | “ | SMHI | RCA4 |
3 | “ | “ | KNMI | RACMO22E |
4 | ICHEC | EC-EARTH | KNMI | RACMO22E |
5 | “ | “ | SMHI | RCA4 |
6 | “ | “ | CLMcom | CCLM4-8-17 |
7 | “ | “ | DMI | HIRHAM5 |
8 | IPSL | IPSL-CM5A-MR | IPSL | WRF381P |
9 | “ | “ | SMHI | RCA4 |
10 | “ | “ | IPSL-INERIS | WRF331F |
11 | MOHC | HadGEM2-ES | DMI | HIRHAM5 |
12 | “ | “ | CLMcom | CCLM4-8-17 |
13 | “ | “ | KNMI | RACMO22E |
14 | “ | “ | SMHI | RCA4 |
15 | MPI-M | MPI-ESM-LR | CLMcom | CCLM4-8-17 |
16 | “ | “ | SMHI | RCA4 |
17 | NCC | NorESM1-M | DMI | HIRHAM5 |
Mean Temperature (°C) | Precipitation (mm) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average | Min | Max | Average | Min | Max | |
PS-GRE | 16.2 | 15.4 | 17.4 | 474 | 268 | 763 |
PS-POR | 16.1 | 15.1 | 17.4 | 545 | 322 | 1018 |
PS-SPA | 13.8 | 12.2 | 15.0 | 434 | 281 | 642 |
PS-TUN | 18.8 | 18.0 | 19.4 | 507 | 291 | 1092 |
PS-TUR | 11.4 | 9.9 | 13.1 | 355 | 264 | 458 |
Mann-Kendall Test | Pettitt Test | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LB | Sen Slope (°C/Decade or mm/Decade) | MK | MMK-HR | MMK-TFPW | PT | Year | Δ (°C or mm) | |
Temperature | ||||||||
PS-GRE | Y | +0.2 | N | N | N | Y | 1997 | +0.8 |
PS-POR | Y | +0.3 | Y | N | N | Y | 1986 | +0.7 |
PS-SPA | Y | +0.4 | Y | Y | N | N | - | - |
PS-TUN | Y | +0.3 | Y | Y | Y | Y | 1993 | +0.6 |
PS-TUR | N | +0.5 | Y | - | - | Y | 1993 | +1.1 |
Precipitation | ||||||||
PS-GRE | N | −26 | N | - | - | N | - | - |
PS-POR | N | −28 | N | - | - | N | - | - |
PS-SPA | N | +5 | N | - | - | N | - | - |
PS-TUN | N | +23 | N | - | - | N | - | - |
PS-TUR | N | −16 | N | - | - | N | - | - |
Obs. | RCM | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP | RP | ST | MT | LT | ST | MT | LT | ||
PS-GRE | Spring | 15.48 | 15.58 | +0.97 * | +1.63 * | +2.26 * | +1.24 * | +2.32 * | +4.69 * |
Summer | 25.20 | 25.13 | +1.15 * | +1.81 * | +2.53 * | +1.38 * | +2.21 * | +4.73 * | |
Autumn | 19.10 | 19.11 | +0.82 * | +1.52 * | +2.35 * | +1.25 * | +2.16 * | +4.21 * | |
Winter | 10.86 | 11.04 | +0.97 * | +1.33 * | +1.95 * | +0.98 * | +1.76 * | +3.77 * | |
Year | 17.66 | 17.72 | +1.00 * | +1.48 * | +2.20 * | +1.22 * | +2.08 * | +4.29 * | |
PS-POR | Spring | 14.86 | 14.56 | +0.88 * | +1.31 * | +1.63 * | +0.82 * | +1.68 * | +3.45 * |
Summer | 23.87 | 23.66 | +0.84 * | +1.70 * | +1.87 * | +1.09 * | +1.83 * | +4.09 * | |
Autumn | 17.30 | 17.45 | +1.09 * | +1.75 * | +2.20 * | +1.35 * | +2.21 * | +4.22 * | |
Winter | 9.65 | 9.83 | +0.79 * | +0.92 * | +1.41 * | +0.80 * | +1.43 * | +2.64 * | |
Year | 16.42 | 16.37 | +0.81 * | +1.37 * | +1.75 * | +1.00 * | +1.72 * | +3.64 * | |
PS-SPA | Spring | 12.09 | 11.83 | +0.84 * | +1.46 * | +1.75 * | +0.94 * | +1.88 * | +3.56 * |
Summer | 22.44 | 22.26 | +1.32 * | +1.94 * | +2.55 * | +1.34 * | +2.43 * | +4.99 * | |
Autumn | 14.09 | 14.27 | +1.25 * | +1.80 * | +2.42 * | +1.34 * | +2.26 * | +4.40 * | |
Winter | 6.43 | 6.67 | +0.97 * | +1.10 * | +1.7 * | +0.95 * | +1.62 * | +3.33 * | |
Year | 13.76 | 13.76 | +0.97 * | +1.47 * | +1.97 * | +1.10 * | +1.98 * | +4.04 * | |
PS-TUN | Spring | 16.56 | 16.40 | +0.78 * | +1.09 * | +1.69 * | +0.88 * | +1.62 * | +3.23 * |
Summer | 25.76 | 25.52 | +1.29 * | +1.67 * | +2.27 * | +1.34 * | +2.2 * | +4.32 * | |
Autumn | 20.41 | 20.34 | +0.98 * | +1.40 * | +2.04 * | +1.01 * | +1.92 * | +3.80 * | |
Winter | 12.38 | 12.61 | +0.76 * | +0.97 * | +1.44 * | +0.64 * | +1.45 * | +3.01 * | |
Year | 18.78 | 18.72 | +0.90 * | +1.30 * | +1.89 * | +0.98 * | +1.85 * | +3.61 * | |
PS-TUR | Spring | 10.26 | 10.41 | +1.11 * | +1.74 * | +2.68 * | +1.27 * | +2.64 * | +5.43 * |
Summer | 21.66 | 21.45 | +1.23 * | +2.02 * | +2.53 * | +1.49 * | +2.53 * | +4.92 * | |
Autumn | 12.12 | 12.24 | +0.94 * | +1.75 * | +2.35 * | +1.52 * | +2.39 * | +4.62 * | |
Winter | 0.56 | 0.95 | +1.51 * | +2.15 * | +3.27 * | +1.58 * | +2.61 * | +5.35 * | |
Year | 11.15 | 11.26 | +1.18 * | +1.86 * | +2.73 * | +1.62 * | +2.78 * | +5.19 * |
Obs. | RCM | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP | RP | ST | MT | LT | ST | MT | LT | ||
PS-GRE | Spring | 76 | 81 | +4.7 | −4.4 | −12.7 | +2.0 | −9.2 | −29.8 |
Summer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Autumn | 130 | 126 | +9.9 * | +1.5 * | −14.0 | +4.8 * | −8.8 | −23.5 | |
Winter | 267 | 300 | −7.8 * | −7.1 * | −11.2 * | +1.8 | −7.8 * | −30.7 * | |
Year | 474 | 513 | −4.1 | −9.3 | −15.7 | −1.8 | −13.5 | −23.5 | |
PS-POR | Spring | 136 | 135 | −4.0 * | −17.1 * | −19.1 * | +4.7 | −22.9 * | −33.2 * |
Summer | 20 | 23 | −15.6 * | −42.8 * | −29.3 * | −29.7 * | −27.4 * | −61.3 * | |
Autumn | 182 | 183 | −17.3 * | −19.0 * | −21.3 * | −19.0 * | −23.4 * | −34.6 * | |
Winter | 206 | 210 | +3.5 | −0.7 | +13.6 | −2.7 | −2.0 | −6.2 | |
Year | 545 | 546 | −2.6 | −12.9 | −9.5 | −8.8 | −14.3 | −22.9 | |
PS-SPA | Spring | 116 | 116 | −6.3 * | −5.1 * | −14.9 * | −2.2 * | −3.4 * | −24.2 * |
Summer | 61 | 64 | +7.5 * | −6.1 | −14.0 | +0.7 * | −7.3 | −38.1 | |
Autumn | 151 | 144 | −10.1 * | −9.1 * | −6.0 * | −2.5 * | +8.6 | −5.1 * | |
Winter | 107 | 104 | +0.8 | +1.3 | +3.3 | +2.9 | +1.7 | −1.3 | |
Year | 434 | 429 | −3.1 * | −2.6 * | −3.9 * | +1.4 | +0.2 | −18.5 * | |
PS-TUN | Spring | 95 | 107 | −19.4 * | −20.9 * | −21.3 * | −11.7 * | −19.7 * | −28.8 * |
Summer | 32 | 25 | +3.8 | −15.0 | −17.9 | −5.3 | −9.4 | −34.0 | |
Autumn | 175 | 187 | −9.2 | −2.6 | +9.2 | −2.0 | −0.3 | −10.1 | |
Winter | 205 | 195 | −3.0 * | −0.3 * | −2.4 * | −4.0 * | −7.2 * | −10.5 * | |
Year | 507 | 500 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.9 | +0.7 | −5.8 | −16.0 | |
PS-TUR | Spring | 120 | 122 | +1.6 | +6.8 | +5.4 | +3.6 | −2.8 | −8.2 |
Summer | 39 | 39 | −17.2 * | −27.0 * | −12.7 * | −19.9 * | −20.7 * | −28.5 * | |
Autumn | 80 | 78 | +10.4 * | +10.2 * | +4.4 * | +6.6 * | +2.5 * | −2.7 | |
Winter | 116 | 126 | +2.9 | +9.6 | +4.5 | +3.7 | +4.8 | +6.0 | |
Year | 355 | 366 | +1.8 | +3.1 | +2.1 | +2.1 | −2.7 | −2.0 |
Duration (Days) | Peak Temperature (°C) | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Obs. | RCM | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | Obs. | RCM | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | ||||||||||
Thr. (°C) | RP | RP | ST | MT | LT | ST | MT | LT | RP | RP | ST | MT | LT | ST | MT | LT | |
PS-GRE | 29.2 | 2 | 2.5 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 6.5 | 23 | 31.1 | 30.9 | 31.6 | 32.4 | 32.9 | 31.8 | 32.9 | 35.4 |
PS-POR | 29.0 | 2 | 2 | 3.5 | 5 | 6.5 | 5 | 6 | 13.5 | 29.8 | 30.2 | 30.9 | 31.4 | 31.8 | 31.0 | 31.9 | 33.7 |
PS-SPA | 26.8 | 2 | 2.5 | 5 | 7.5 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 23.5 | 27.7 | 28.2 | 29.3 | 29.9 | 30.4 | 29.6 | 30.5 | 33.7 |
PS-TUN | 29.2 | 2.5 | 2 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5 | 8 | 38 | 30.6 | 30.5 | 31.3 | 31.7 | 32.6 | 31.7 | 32.6 | 35.1 |
PS-TUR | 26.3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 23.5 | 27.4 | 27.7 | 28.6 | 29.1 | 29.7 | 28.8 | 29.8 | 32.4 |
Obs. | RCM | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP | RP | ST | MT | LT | ST | MT | LT | |
PS-GRE | 151 | 137.5 | 142 | 142 | 148.5 | 141.5 | 143.5 | 156.5 |
PS-POR | 86 | 72 | 82.5 | 87 | 86 | 82 | 91 | 107 |
PS-SPA | 43.5 | 49.5 | 54 | 59 | 52.5 | 57.5 | 57.5 | 64 |
PS-TUN | 59 | 71 | 74 | 77.5 | 79.5 | 72 | 77.5 | 104.5 |
PS-TUR | 51 | 58 | 71.5 | 72.5 | 75 | 73.5 | 74 | 93 |
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Todaro, V.; D’Oria, M.; Secci, D.; Zanini, A.; Tanda, M.G. Climate Change over the Mediterranean Region: Local Temperature and Precipitation Variations at Five Pilot Sites. Water 2022, 14, 2499. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14162499
Todaro V, D’Oria M, Secci D, Zanini A, Tanda MG. Climate Change over the Mediterranean Region: Local Temperature and Precipitation Variations at Five Pilot Sites. Water. 2022; 14(16):2499. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14162499
Chicago/Turabian StyleTodaro, Valeria, Marco D’Oria, Daniele Secci, Andrea Zanini, and Maria Giovanna Tanda. 2022. "Climate Change over the Mediterranean Region: Local Temperature and Precipitation Variations at Five Pilot Sites" Water 14, no. 16: 2499. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14162499