Open AccessArticle

European Green Deal: The Impact of the Level of Renewable Energy Source and Gross Domestic Product per Capita on Energy Import Dependency

Valentyna Kukharets

Taras Hutsol

^2,3,*

Savelii Kukharets

⁴

Szymon Glowacki

^5,*

Tomasz Nurek

⁶

and

Dmytro Sorokin

⁷

Department of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Agriculture Academy, Vytautas Magnus University, Universiteto g. 10, Akademija, LT-53361 Kaunas, Lithuania

Department of Mechanics and Agroecosystems Engineering, Polissia National University, Staryi Blvd 7, 10-008 Zhytomyr, Ukraine

Department of Machine Use in Agriculture, Dmytro Motornyi Tavria State Agrotechnological University, 6 Zhukovskyi Str., 66, 69-002 Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine

⁴

Department of Agricultural Engineering and Safety, Agriculture Academy, Vytautas Magnus University, Studentu Str. 15A, LT-44248 Kaunas, Lithuania

⁵

Department of Fundamentals of Engineering and Power Engineering, Institute of Mechanical Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland

⁶

Department of Biosystem Engineering, Institute of Mechanical Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland

⁷

Department of Electrical Engineering, Electromechanics and Electrotechnology, National University of Life and Environmental Science of Ukraine, 03-041 Kyiv, Ukraine

Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Sustainability 2023, 15(15), 11817; https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511817

Submission received: 14 June 2023 / Revised: 24 July 2023 / Accepted: 28 July 2023 / Published: 1 August 2023

Download

Browse Figures

Figure 1
Energy import dependency (%). "> Figure 2
Change of energy import dependency (%). "> Figure 3
Renewable energy sources (%). "> Figure 4
Change of renewable energy sources (%). "> Figure 5
Gross domestic product (euro per capita). "> Figure 6
Change of gross domestic product (euro per capita). "> Figure 7
Graphic dependence of the influence of the renewable energy sources (%) and gross domestic product (euro per capita) on energy import dependency (%). "> Figure 8
The influence of gross domestic product on energy import dependency. "> Figure 9
The influence of renewable energy sources on energy import dependency. ">

Review Reports Versions Notes

Abstract

The level of renewable energy use and economic development of a country, as separate indicators, have an influence on the level of energy resource imports, but the mutual impact of renewable energy sources and gross national product on the growth or decrease of energy imports dependency have not been studied. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the energy security of European countries by taking into account the consumption of renewable energy sources and the economic development of the countries. In particular, the article examines the relationship between energy import dependency, gross domestic product (per capita), and renewable energy sources in 27 countries in the European Union. Regression analysis of data on EU countries for 11 years (from 2011 to 2021) was used to determine the non-linear influence of gross domestic product and renewable energy use on energy import dependency. This influence was simulated by a second-order regression equation. The analysis of the equation for extremes made it possible to conclude that with a share of energy from renewable sources at the level of 32%, the economic development of a country does not require an increase in energy import dependency, and with larger values of energy from renewable sources, a decrease in energy import dependency may occur. In addition, according to the analysis of the obtained mathematical dependence, it is recommended that countries with a gross domestic product of up to 10,000 euros per capita use renewable energy sources at the level of 40%. For the countries with a domestic product of up to 30,000 euros per capita should use renewable sources at the level of 50%. For countries with a gross domestic product of more than 30,000 euros per capita, renewable energy sources at a level of more than 55% is recommended. A high level of renewable energy use will allow a country to increase its gross domestic product without a significant increase in energy import dependency, and at the level of renewable energy sources of more than 32%, an increase in gross domestic product does not actually lead to an increase in energy import dependency. An increase in the use of renewable energy sources above 40% of the total consumption of energy resources in a specific country, in particular, and in the European Union, in general, will ensure an increase in energy security and an increase in the level of energy independence.

Keywords:

European Union; mathematical dependencies; energy independence; renewable energy; gross domestic product

1. Introduction

Climate change, environmental degradation, and a significant dependence on the import of energy resources pose a threat to the stable development of Europe and the whole world. To overcome the above challenges, it is necessary to create a resource-efficient and competitive economy. This is stated in the European Union Deal [1,2,3]. According to the European Green Deal, by 2030, it is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 55% (compared to 1990) and ensure sustainable economic growth without increasing the use of fossil fuel resources. It is obvious that the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions requires an increase in the share of renewable energy use [4,5] and an increase in energy efficiency.

Regarding sustainable economic growth, a systematic approach to all possible factors of sustainable development through economic, ecological, and social mechanisms is important. The goal of a sustainable approach is to ensure economic growth, social justice, and the preservation of natural resources for future generations [6]. It should be noted that the growth of energy consumption is inherent in economic development (growth). The relationship between the consumption of energy resources and economic development is considered according to four hypotheses: growth, conservation neutrality and feedback [7,8]. As for the growth hypothesis, it assumes that energy resources have a direct impact on economic development and are an important production factor.

Scientists argue that any changes in energy policies have a significant impact on economic growth; however, the given evidence is not parametric [9]. Sustainable development of the economy is a complex process [10] which involves the promotion of innovative solutions in all sectors of the economy: the introduction of new technologies, increased investment in the development of renewable energy, a reduction in the amount of wastes, etc. [11]. In addition, it is important to reduce the import dependence of energy resources [12] in view of recent geopolitical events, in particular, the invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine. In addition, the sustainable development of the economy in compliance with the requirements of the European Union Deal needs to take into account regional characteristics. After all, regions can have different potentials for the development of certain sectors of the economy and infrastructure. National targets for the use of renewable energy may differ, because different starting opportunities and different potentials for increasing the production of renewable energy in different European countries have an impact [13].

This is why a significant amount of scientific research is aimed at establishing the relationship between economic growth (according to its various indicators) and the consumption of energy resources in general, or the production of renewable energy.

2. Literature Review

In general, it is believed that the consumption of energy resources stimulates the growth of the gross national product [14]. In some studies, the positive effect of economic growth (in gross domestic product, gross domestic product per capita, etc.) on the increase in the consumption of renewable energy in the final energy consumption was shown. The research was conducted on various macroeconomic variables, on various directions of interrelationships, for various time periods, for various groups of countries. In particular, work [15] presented a ranking assessment of progress in the management of renewable energy consumption and determined the relationship between energy consumption by selected energy sources (both renewable and non-renewable) and selected indicators of innovativeness in the EU countries. The results of the study indicate that not all countries have developed energy management in the direction of renewable energy sources.

The work established the connection between the level of innovativeness of the country and the consumption of energy from certain types of renewable sources. However, the overall mutual influence of the level of renewable energy consumption on the gross domestic product was not investigated. The study [16] confirmed a positive relationship between the consumption of renewable energy and the economic growth of African countries, but no specific mathematical dependencies were given. The analysis of the results of the study carried out for 28 countries of the European Union in the period from 1995 to 2015 [17] testified to a positive impact of the consumption of renewable energy on the economic growth and on the cause-and-effect relationship between the studied indicators. In particular, linear regression revealed an increasing trend between the consumption of renewable energy and the final consumption of all energy. The paper [18] investigated the causal relationship between economic growth, consumption of renewable energy, capital, and labor for new EU member states for the period 1990–2009. The results of the study confirmed the positive impact of the use of renewable energy on economic growth in all studied countries. Paper [19] examined the impact of the use of renewable energy sources in gross marginal energy on growth for a lower-income Polish economy and a high-income Swedish economy. It was established that the increase in gross marginal energy consumption contributes to an increase in economic growth. Additionally, the share of renewable energy can be dramatically increased by taking measures to accelerate economic growth in less developed countries and promoting national initiatives. However, the studies [18,19] did not consider scenarios concerning the influence of the level of renewable energy use on the general growth of energy consumption in the process of economic growth.

The study [20] analyzed the relationship (between 1990 and 2016) between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in 17 developing countries. It was shown that energy conservation policies do not slow down the rates of economic growth of countries with a developing economy, but the impact of renewable energy consumption on the level of imports of energy resources was not studied. Similar studies on the impact of the use of renewable energy sources and fossil fuels on economic indicators in 17 developing countries (between 1980 and 2016) were carried out in the work [21]. However, in the works [20,21], there are no studies on the significant cause-and-effect relationship between energy use and economic growth taking into account the structural features of the formation of economic growth in different countries, although the authors noted that energy policies should be individual for each of the studied countries. Research [12] indicated a positive impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and fixed capital accumulation on the economic growth of south Asia countries. In particular, growth in renewable energy consumption, non-renewable energy consumption and capital growth combined, contributed to economic growth. The authors found a unidirectional cause-and-effect relationship from economic growth to renewable energy consumption, but the reverse effect was not investigated. Finally, the relationship between the real gross domestic product and the realization of national targets for renewable energy of European Union countries for the period between 2007 and 2017 was considered. The results of this study indicated a significant causal relationship between real GDP per capita and partially renewable energy in final consumption. The results of the study indicated the greater potential of developed countries for renewable energy use. Spatial dependence between the gross domestic product and the consumption of renewable energy for 26 countries of Europe was studied in work [22,23].

The study found that spatial dependence leads to changes in the consumption of renewable energy and affects the gross domestic product of neighboring countries. The results of this study indicated that an increase in the consumption of renewable energy in one country can lead to economic growth in neighboring countries.

Some studies indicate the lack of positive impacts of renewable energy on a country’s economic growth. For example, in study [24] the authors investigated the relationship between renewable energy consumption, economic growth, and human development index in a specific scenario for Pakistan. The authors of the study [24] claimed that the empirical results showed that the consumption of renewable energy did not improve economic growth in Pakistan.

The authors of the work [9] used a non-parametric simulation technique to determine the time-varying impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on the economic growth for the countries that are part of the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) and the countries outside the OECD for the period from 1990 to 2015. The researchers found that in OECD countries, non-renewable energy consumption is becoming more important over time, but renewable energy consumption has little effect on economic growth. However, for the non-OECD countries, the consumption of renewable energy had a positive effect on economic growth. In work [25], the results obtained showed that an increase in the final consumption of energy from renewable energy sources and biofuels in households per capita led to an increase in the percentage of people who had debt for the consumed services.

Most of the research was aimed at analyzing the import dependence of energy resources from economic growth (development). For example, study [26] analyzed the diversification of energy supply in Europe depending on imports, market concentration and the consumption of renewable energy in the European Union. The authors noted that the dependence on imports significantly reduced energy security. The authors of the study [27] examined the relationship between the dynamics of energy resource imports depending on energy consumption and economic growth for 23 developed and developing countries. The research established that there is a statistically proven relationship between import growth, energy consumption growth, and economic growth. However, studies [26,27] did not consider the mutual influence of economic growth and renewable energy consumption on the dynamics of changes in energy resources imports.

Thus, it can be noted that the level of renewable energy use and economic development of a country, as separate indicators, have an influence on the level of energy resource imports, but the mutual impact of renewable energy sources and gross national product on the growth or decrease of energy imports dependency were not studied. Therefore, our study was aimed at studying the energy security of European countries, taking into account the consumption of renewable energy sources and the economic development of the countries. In particular, it was necessary to study the relationship between energy import dependency, gross domestic product (per capita), and renewable energy source use in 27 countries of the European Union. Additionally, it was found that most studies used linear multifactor dependencies or nonlinear single-factor dependencies. Therefore, this study described the relationship between energy import dependence, gross domestic product (per capita), and renewable energy source using a nonlinear multifactorial relationship, and also investigated its adequacy.

3. Materials and Methods

To establish the influence of renewable energy source and gross domestic product (per capita) factors on energy import dependency a regression analysis of a dataset consisting of indicator values from 2011 to 2021 (297 values for each factor and for each European country) was conducted.

To express the analytical relationship, taking into account the nature of tabular data (Table 1), a second-order regression equation was chosen [28]:

E = b_{1} + b_{2} G + b_{3} R + b_{4} G^{2} + b_{5} G R + b_{6} R^{2},

(1)

where:

E—energy import dependency, %;
G—gross domestic product at market prices, euro per capita;
R—renewable energy sources, %;
b_n—equation coefficients.

It should be noted that the second-order regression equation was chosen due to the fact that such an equation most accurately takes into account the mutual relationship between independent parameters in relation to the influence on the dependent parameters [28]. Further analysis of the coefficients of this equation was conducted to identify statistically insignificant indicators, and to simplify the equation to a pure quadratic form or a linear form, if necessary.

The method of least squares was used to determine the coefficients of the regression equation [29]. Since function 1 is non-linear, in order to find the coefficients, it was reduced to a linear form by recalculating of the independent coefficients.

The adequacy (significance) of both the equation and coefficients of the equation was assessed using the F-test and t-test. For this, a comparison of the actual and tabular (theoretical) values of the F-criterion (Fisher’s test) and the 1-criterion (Student’s test) was used. The corresponding values were calculated in Microsoft Excel using the Data Analysis package [30].

The average values (from 2011 to 2021) of the gross domestic product (euro per capita), renewable energy source (%) and energy import dependency (%) for the European countries are given in Table 1.

Table 1. Values (from 2011 to 2021) of gross domestic product (euro per capita), renewable energy source (%) and energy import dependency (%) for the European countries.

Names of the Countries	Energy Import Dependency, %				Renewable Energy Sources, %				Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices, Euro per Capita
Names of the Countries	Mean	Median	Minimum	Maximum	Mean	Median	Minimum	Maximum	Mean	Median	Minimum	Maximum
Estonia	9.28	10.53	1.21	20.65	29.10	29.23	25.36	38.01	17,355	16,530	12,540	23,640
Romania	23.17	22.46	16.66	31.65	23.98	24.29	21.74	25.03	9166	8500	6880	12,610
Sweden	30.35	30.16	21.01	36.48	53.54	52.60	47.63	62.57	46,554	46,390	43,690	51,680
Czechia	33.69	32.80	25.41	40.81	14.90	15.07	10.95	17.67	17,820	16,790	15,000	22,270
Poland	35.65	34.02	26.25	45.24	12.79	11.61	10.34	16.10	11,861	11,180	9790	15,100
Bulgaria	37.26	36.86	35.17	39.36	18.65	18.70	14.15	23.32	7259	6840	5640	10,330
Finland	46.20	46.16	37.99	53.91	39.28	39.23	32.53	43.94	40,235	39,580	36,750	45,220
Netherlands	46.51	49.00	23.74	68.02	7.33	5.85	4.52	14.00	42,611	41,590	38,960	48,790
France	46.96	47.39	44.17	49.05	15.49	15.45	10.81	19.34	33,651	33,430	31,510	36,660
Latvia	47.92	45.48	38.33	59.86	38.52	38.63	33.48	42.13	13,437	12,950	9550	17,850
Slovenia	49.05	49.02	45.19	52.12	22.54	21.98	20.94	25.00	20,306	19,590	17,630	24,770
Croatia	50.77	49.85	44.21	56.22	28.31	28.05	25.39	31.33	11,808	11,350	10,380	14,730
Hungary	56.48	55.82	50.12	69.71	14.17	14.12	12.55	16.21	12,425	11,850	10,110	15,870
Slovakia	61.67	61.63	52.58	69.76	12.96	11.90	10.13	17.41	15,405	14,960	13,300	18,440
Austria	63.02	63.78	51.95	71.60	33.73	33.50	31.55	36.55	41,021	40,920	36,970	45,370
Germany	63.16	63.48	61.22	67.06	15.60	14.90	12.47	19.17	38,179	38,070	33,550	43,290
Greece	70.28	71.05	61.75	81.42	16.87	15.69	11.15	21.93	16,668	16,450	15,460	18,310
Spain	72.28	72.74	67.89	76.01	16.87	17.02	13.18	21.22	23,860	23,610	21,910	26,440
Portugal	73.55	73.88	65.28	79.46	29.56	30.51	24.57	33.98	18,290	18,060	16,010	20,870
Lithuania	75.10	74.94	71.97	78.60	24.57	25.47	19.94	28.23	14,436	13,560	10,340	19,990
Italy	76.86	76.98	73.45	81.35	17.34	17.53	12.88	20.36	28,240	27,940	26,740	30,230
Belgium	77.78	77.59	70.82	84.15	9.13	8.74	6.30	13.01	38,104	37,960	34,060	43,350
Ireland	78.26	76.96	66.87	91.62	10.01	9.19	6.61	16.16	57,343	56,900	37,500	84,940
Cyprus	94.11	93.18	89.52	97.32	11.28	9.90	6.25	18.42	23,355	23,340	20,510	26,680
Luxembourg	95.57	95.96	92.33	97.51	6.35	5.36	2.86	11.74	96,269	96,230	85,330	112,780
Malta	99.54	97.66	97.06	104.14	6.43	6.21	1.85	12.15	23,024	23,130	16,630	28,920
Denmark	17.43	13.08	−6.32	44.86	30.95	31.68	23.39	37.02	49,838	49,420	44,500	57,520

The data characterizing changes in energy import dependence, gross domestic product (per capita) and renewable energy source by year were taken from the Eurostat website. Energy import dependency [31] shows that a share of a country’s total energy needs is satisfied by imports from other countries and is considered in the study as a dependent parameter (indicator). Gross national product is an indicator of the economic situation in the country and its calculations per capita [32] allow us to compare economies that differ in absolute size [33,34]. In the study, we considered the indicator of renewable energy sources [35] as a share of the renewable energy consumption in the gross final energy consumption.

4. Results and Discussion

If we analyze the values (from 2011 to 2021) of gross national product (euro per capita) [29], renewable energy source (%) [32] and energy import dependency (%) [28] for the European countries, (the average values of which are listed in Table 1), Malta had the largest average value of energy import dependency—99.5% (Figure 1), and Estonia had the lowest—9.3%.

In 2021, energy import dependence in most countries decreased compared to 2011. However, energy import dependence increased in some countries (Figure 1). If we analyze the change in energy import dependency from 2011 to 2021, the largest decrease was observed for Latvia, at 21.3% (Figure 2) and the largest increase was observed for Denmark at 38.6%.

In Figure 1 we can see the groups of the countries in which energy import dependency is less than 50% and more than 50%. Countries such as Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta belong to a group of countries with energy import dependency of more than 90%. The high values of the indicator for these countries are due to their geographical location and configuration [26]. It should be noted that during the studied period, no tendency towards a change in energy import dependency was observed in any country. In particular, in 2021, energy import dependence of the countries with a high level of dependence (more than 80%) was lower than in 2011 (Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta). In countries typically presenting with the lowest levels of this indicator (less than 30%), on the contrary, it increased in 2021 (Denmark, Romania, Czechia). If we analyze the dynamics of changes in energy import dependency (Figure 2), then in 2021 compared to 2011, the largest decreases (by more than 15%) were observed for Latvia—21.5%, Austria—18.0%, and Finland—15.9% (Figure 2), and the largest increases were observed for The Netherlands—29% and Denmark—38.6%. The gradual increase in energy import dependency of Denmark should be especially noted. Until 2013, Denmark was an exporter of natural gas, but in recent years it has become an importer—Denmark—Renewable Energy Products. https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/denmark-renewable-energy-products (accessed on 14 June 2023). It should be also noted that for Bulgaria and Slovenia the value of the indicator remains unchanged.

It should be noted that in 2021, in 11 EU countries, the share of renewable energy consumption in gross final energy consumption was more than 25% (Figure 3). The largest consumption of renewable energy was in Sweden; the value of the indicator was 62.5%. Achieving this rate of renewable energy consumption became possible thanks to the use of hydropower and biomass [22]. Sweden had the largest average value of renewable energy sources–53.5% (Figure 3), and Luxembourg had the lowest–6.4%. It should also be noted that in 2021, 14 EU countries did not reach a renewable energy consumption level of more than 20% (Figure 3).

During the studied period, there was a tendency to increase the renewable energy sources in European countries (Figure 4). Sweden had the largest increase in renewable energy sources from 2011 to 2021–14.9% (Figure 4), and Hungary had the lowest–0.1%. All the European countries increased shares of renewable energy sources in accordance with Directive (EU) 2018/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources–https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A32018L2001 (accessed on 14 June 2023). Most countries increased this indicator by 5–12%. In particular, the countries with a low level of use of the renewable energy sources—Cyprus, Greece, Belgium, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, and The Netherlands—increased their use of renewable energy by 8%. However, such an increase in the use of renewable energy is not sufficient.

Despite the consequences of the global financial and economic crisis in 2008 and 2020 caused by COVID-19, there was a general tendency to increase gross domestic product (euro per capita) in EU countries. Luxembourg had the largest average value of gross domestic product–96269 euros per capita (Figure 5), and Bulgaria had the lowest–7259 euros per capita.

From 2011 to 2021 gross domestic product in Ireland increased by 47,440 euros per capita (Figure 6), and during the same period gross domestic product decreased only in one country–Greece, by 1240 euros per capita.

As follows from the analysis of the above graphs, the values of energy import dependency, renewable energy sources and gross domestic product vary within fairly wide limits. In addition, these changes are not the same for specific EU countries. The influence of renewable energy sources and gross domestic product on energy import dependency is not obvious.

Our regression analysis of data on European countries for 10 years (from 2011 to 2021) allowed us to obtain the non-linear (curvilinear) influence of gross domestic product and renewable energy sources on energy import dependency. This relationship was expressed using the mathematical dependencies in the form of a second-order regression Equation (2):

\begin{matrix} E = 61.781 + 9.178 \cdot 10^{- 4} G - 1.182 R - 4.234 \cdot 10^{- 9} G^{2} - \\ - 2.080 \cdot 10^{- 5} G R + 1.837 \cdot 10^{- 2} R^{2} . \end{matrix}

(2)

The equation was adequate according to Fisher’s test with a reliability level of 0.95 (F = 25.263, Significance F = 0.0018) and had a coefficient of determination R² = 0.603. The characteristics necessary for estimating the coefficients of the equation are given in Table 2.

According to t-criterion, the coefficient of equation b₄ (Table 1) for G² was not statistically significant, so Equation (2) required correction by excluding this coefficient.

After correction, the mathematical dependencies of the influence of gross domestic product and renewable energy sources on energy import dependency took such a form:

\begin{matrix} E = 70.707 + 4.194 \cdot 10^{- 4} G - 1.343 R -, \\ - 1.307 \cdot 10^{- 5} G R + 1.678 \cdot 10^{- 2} R^{2} . \end{matrix}

(3)

Equation (3) is adequate according to the Fisher’s test with a reliability level 0.95 (F = 30.585, Significance F = 0.0017) and has a determination coefficient R² = 0.614. The characteristics necessary for estimating the coefficients of the equation are listed in Table 3. Moreover, the dependencies are adequate for changes in gross domestic product at market prices ranging from 5 to 55,000 euro per capita and changes in renewable energy sources ranging from 5 to 55%.

The analysis of the mathematical dependencies (3) made it possible to construct (obtain) a graphic visualization of the influence of gross domestic product and renewable energy source on the values of energy import dependency (Figure 7).

According to the first scenario (renewable energy sources 20%), with an increase in gross domestic product from 5000 to 5500 euros per capita, an increase in import dependency was observed by 1.15 times (from 51.3% to 59.2%) according to linear dependence (Figure 8). According to the second scenario (renewable energy sources 35%), there was a slight decrease in energy import dependency by 1.05 times (from 44.1% to 42.2%). According to the third scenario (renewable energy sources 45%), with an increase in gross domestic product, a sharper decrease in energy import dependency by 1.24 times (from 43.3% to 35.0%) was observed. The analysis of Equation (3) for extremes allowed us to conclude that when using energy from renewable sources at a level of 32%, the economic development of the country does not require an increase in energy import dependency, and at higher values of energy use from renewable sources, energy import dependency may generally decrease.

We also analyzed scenarios concerning the impact of increasing renewable energy sources on energy import dependency at different values of the domestic product level. In Figure 9, the impact of increasing renewable energy on energy import dependency for three values of gross domestic product—10,000, 30,000 and 50,000 euros per capita, is shown.

Analysis of the graphs made it possible to state that countries with a low value of gross domestic product (up to 10,000 euros per capita), when increasing the use of renewable energy sources from 5% to 40%, reduce their energy import dependency by 1.58 times (from 67.9% to 42.8%). A further increase in renewable energy use can, on the contrary, lead to an increase in energy import dependency (44.6% with renewable energy sources 55%). This may occur as a result of a significant and disproportional increase in the costs of renewable energy, which will need to be compensated accordingly [36].

For countries with a level of gross domestic product up to 30,000 euros per capita, when renewable energy use increases from 5% to 55%, the energy import dependency decreases by 1.95 times (from 75.0% to 38.5%), and a further increase in renewable energy use will lead to neither a decrease nor to an increase in energy import dependency.

For countries with a level of gross domestic product up to 50,000 euros per capita, when the use of renewable energy increases from 5% to 40%, the energy import dependency decreases by 2.51 times (from 82.1% to 32.6%).

Therefore, it is possible to recommend the use of the renewable energy sources a level of 40% for the countries with gross domestic product of up to 10,000 euros per capita. For the countries with a gross domestic product up to 30,000 euros per capita the use of renewable energy sources is recommended at the level of 50%, and for the countries with a gross domestic product of more than 30,000 euros per capita, renewable energy use is recommended at the level of more than 55%.

A high level of renewable energy use allows a country to increase the gross domestic product without a significant increase in energy import dependency [37,38], and at a level of renewable energy use of more than 32%, the increase in gross domestic product does not actually lead to an increase in energy import dependency. Increasing the use of renewable energy sources to only 40% of the total consumption of energy resources in a specific country, in particular, and in the European Union, in general, will ensure an increase in energy security and an increase in the level of energy independence.

This conclusion correlates with the conclusion of the study [39], which also states that achieving a high share of consumption of renewable energy sources will contribute to energy security with proper economic development. The conclusions are also confirmed by research [40], which states that achieving the goal of 45% of renewable energy in energy, industry, buildings, and transport by 2030 will reduce the dependence of EU countries on imports of energy resources, providing further economic development.

In addition, an increase in the level of renewable energy use will contribute towards stabilization of the increase in carbon emissions in the process of expanding economic activity [41]. One of the important strategies for the EU is to reduce final energy consumption, and research [22] states that this can be achieved by increasing energy efficiency and increasing the share of renewable energy sources used in final energy consumption. The above-mentioned factors also lead to a decrease in dependence on energy imports, which is consistent with our research. That is why our research, based on Eurostat data, allows us to make a conclusion about the overall positive impact of the use of renewable energy sources on the economic development of the countries of the European Union, taking into account the level of energy import dependency.

5. Conclusions

A regression analysis of data on European countries for 10 years (from 2011 to 2021) was used to obtain the non-linear (curvilinear) influence of gross domestic product and renewable energy sources on energy import dependency. This influence was expressed using mathematical dependencies in the form of a second-order regression equation. The mathematical dependencies that we obtained made it possible to simulate three scenarios of the impact of an increase in gross domestic product (per capita) on energy import dependency. According to the first scenario, (renewable energy sources 20%), with an increase in gross domestic product from 5000 to 55,000 euros per capita, the increase in energy import dependency was 1.15 times higher, increasing from 51.3% to 59.2% according to the linear dependence. According to the second scenario, (renewable energy sources 35%) a slight decrease in energy import dependence of 1.05 times (from 44.1% to 42,2%) was noted. According to the third scenario, (renewable energy sources 45%) with an increase in gross domestic product, a sharper decrease, by 1.24 times, in energy import dependency (from 43.4%to 35.0%) was observed.

The analysis of the dependencies for extremes made it possible to conclude that, with the use of energy from renewable sources at the level of 32%, the economic development of a country does not require an increase in energy import dependency, and with higher values in the level energy use from renewable sources in the process of economic development, an increase in energy import dependency may generally occur.

We also analyzed three scenarios related to the impact of an increase in renewable energy sources on energy import dependency at different levels of gross domestic product. The countries with a gross domestic product (up to 10,000 euros per capita) with an increase in the use of renewable energy sources from 5% to 40% reduced their energy import dependency by1.58 times (from 67.9% to 42.8%). Further increases in the use of renewable energy sources may lead to an increase in energy import dependency (44.6% with renewable energy sources—55%). This may occur as a result of a significant and disproportional increase in the costs of the renewable energy, which will need to be compensated accordingly. For the countries with a gross domestic product at a level of up to 30,000 euros per capita, an increase in the value of gross domestic product (up to 10,000 euros per capita) from 5% to 40%, energy import dependency decreased by 1.95 times (from 75,0% to 38.5%); a further increase in the use of renewable energy sources does not lead to either a decrease or an increase in energy import dependency. For the countries with a gross domestic product at a level of more than 50,000 euros per capita, when the use of energy sources increased from 5% to 55%, energy import dependency decreased by 2.51 times (from 82.1% to 32.6%).

6. Recommendations and Prognosis

According to the analysis of the obtained mathematical dependencies, it is possible to recommend the use of renewable energy sources at the level of 40% for those countries with a gross domestic product of up to 10,000 euros per capita; for countries with a gross domestic product of up to 30,000 euros per capita it is recommended to use renewable energy sources at the level of 50%; and for the countries with a gross domestic product of more than 30,000 euros per capita it is recommended to use renewable energy sources at the level of more than 55%.

High levels of renewable energy source use allows a country to increase the gross domestic product without a significant increase in energy dependency, and at a renewable energy source use level of more than 32%, an increase in gross domestic product does not actually lead to an increase in energy dependency. An increase in the use of renewable energy above 40% of the total consumption of energy resources in a specific country, in particular, and in the European Union, in general, will ensure an increase in general security and an increase in the level of energy independence.

In further research the authors plan to assess the impact of the type of renewable energy source on the level of energy import dependency and the level of use of renew-able energy sources for individual countries in the European Union. In addition, the impact of the development of one or another type of renewable energy production on the gross domestic product per capita requires careful research.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, V.K. and T.H.; methodology, S.K. and V.K.; validation, S.G. and T.N.; formal analysis, D.S.; literature review, V.K. and S.K.; project administration, V.K. and S.K.; supervision, T.H. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

Financed from the subsidy of the Ministry of Education and Science for the Warsaw University of Life Sciences (SGGW) for the year 2023.

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

Not applicable.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

References

Liobikienė, G.; Miceikienė, A. Contribution of the European Bioeconomy Strategy to the Green Deal Policy: Challenges and Opportunities in Implementing These Policies. Sustainability 2023, 15, 7139. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Tryhuba, A.; Hutsol, T.; Tryhuba, I.; Mudryk, K.; Kukharets, V.; Głowacki, S.; Dibrova, L.; Kozak, O.; Pavlenko-Didur, K. Assessment of the Condition of the Project Environment for the Implementation of Technologically Integrated Projects of the “European Green Deal” Using Maize Waste. Energies 2022, 15, 8220. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Tryhuba, A.; Hutsol, T.; Kuboń, M.; Tryhuba, I.; Komarnitskyi, S.; Tabor, S.; Kwaśniewski, D.; Mudryk, K.; Faichuk, O.; Hohol, T.; et al. Taxonomy and Stakeholder Risk Management in Integrated Projects of the European Green Deal. Energies 2022, 15, 2015. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council. European Energy Security Strategy. Available online: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX:52014DC0330&qid=1407855611566 (accessed on 12 June 2023).
Kukharets, V.; Juočiūnienė, D.; Hutsol, T.; Sukmaniuk, O.; Čėsna, J.; Kukharets, S.; Piersa, P.; Szufa, S.; Horetska, I.; Shevtsova, A. An Algorithm for Managerial Actions on the Rational Use of Renewable Sources of Energy: Determination of the Energy Potential of Biomass in Lithuania. Energies 2023, 16, 548. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Bórawski, P.; Bełdycka-Bórawska, A.; Szymańska, E.J.; Jankowski, K.J.; Dubis, B.; Dunn, J.W. Development of renewable energy sources market and biofuels in The European Union. J. Clean. Prod. 2019, 228, 467–484. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Menegaki, A.N.; Tugcu, C.T. The sensitivity of growth, conservation, feedback & neutrality hypotheses to sustainability accounting. Energy Sustain. Dev. 2016, 34, 77–87. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Navarro, C.E.B.; Álvarez-Quiroz, V.J.; Sampi, J.; Sánchez, A.A.A. Does economic growth promote electric power consumption? Implications for electricity conservation, expansive, and security policies. Electr. J. 2023, 36, 107235. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Ivanovski, K.; Hailemariam, A.; Smyth, R. The effect of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth: Non-parametric evidence. J. Clean. Prod. 2021, 286, 124956. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Nițescu, D.C.; Murgu, V. The Bioeconomy and Foreign Trade in Food Products—A Sustainable Partnership at the European Level? Sustainability 2020, 12, 2460. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
Torchio, M.F.; Lucia, U.; Grisolia, G. Economic and Human Features for Energy and Environmental Indicators: A Tool to Assess Countries’ Progress towards Sustainability. Sustainability 2020, 12, 9716. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Deka, A.; Cavusoglu, B.; Dube, S.; Rukani, S.; Kadir, M.O. Examining the effect of renewable energy on exchange rate in the emerging economies with dynamic ARDL bounds test approach. Renew. Energy Focus 2023, 44, 237–243. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Renewable Energy—National Targets. Available online: https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/climate-strategies-targets/2020-climate-energy-package_en (accessed on 4 May 2023).
Shahbaz, M.; Zakaria, M.; Shahzad, S.J.H.; Mahalik, M.K. The energy consumption and economic growth nexus in top ten energy-consuming countries: Fresh evidence from using the quantile-on-quantile approach. Energy Econ. 2018, 71, 282–301. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
Sipa, M.; Gorzeń-Mitka, I. Assessment of the Progress towards the Management of Renewable Energy Consumption in the Innovativeness Context—A Country Approach. Energies 2021, 14, 5064. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Bekun, F.V.; Alola, A.A. Determinants of renewable energy consumption in agrarian Sub-Sahara African economies. Energy Ecol. Environ. 2022, 7, 227–235. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Soava, G.; Mehedintu, A.; Sterpu, M.; Raduteanu, M. Impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from European Union countries. Technol. Econ. Dev. Econ. 2018, 24, 914–932. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Alper, A.; Oguz, O. The role of renewable energy consumption in economic growth: Evidence from asymmetric causality. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2016, 60, 953–959. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Ślusarczyk, B.; Żegleń, P.; Kluczek, A.; Nizioł, A.; Górka, M. The Impact of Renewable Energy Sources on the Economic Growth of Poland and Sweden Considering COVID-19 Times. Energies 2022, 15, 332. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Ozcan, B.; Ozturk, I. Renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus in emerging countries: A bootstrap panel causality test. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2019, 104, 30–37. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Yilanci, V.; Haouas, I.; Ozgur, O.; Sarkodie, S.A. Energy Diversification and Economic Development in Emergent Countries: Evidence From Fourier Function-Driven Bootstrap Panel Causality Test. Front. Energy Res. 2021, 9, 632712. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Simionescu, M.; Strielkowski, W.; Tvaronavičienė, M. Renewable Energy in Final Energy Consumption and Income in the EU-28 Countries. Energies 2020, 13, 2280. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Chica-Olmo, J.; Sari-Hassoun, S.; Moya-Fernández, P. Spatial relationship between economic growth and renewable energy consumption in 26 European countries. Energy Econ. 2020, 92, 104962. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Wang, Z.; Danish; Zhang, B.; Wang, B. Renewable energy consumption, economic growth and human development index in Pakistan: Evidence form simultaneous equation model. J. Clean. Prod. 2018, 184, 1081–1090. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Halkos, G.; Gkampoura, E.-C. Assessing Fossil Fuels and Renewables’ Impact on Energy Poverty Conditions in Europe. Energies 2023, 16, 560. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
De Rosa, M.; Gainsford, K.; Pallonetto, F.; Finn, D.P. Diversification, concentration and renewability of the energy supply in the European Union. Energy 2022, 253, 124097. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Üzümcü, A.; Çam Karakaş, Ü.; Karakaş, A. Energy Import and economic growth: An analysis of some energy importing countries. J. Econ. Adm. Sci. 2019, 20, 317–334. [Google Scholar]
Kissell, R.L. Nonlinear Regression Models. In Algorithmic Trading Methods; Fordham University: New York, NY, USA, 2021; pp. 197–219. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Kong, Q.; Siauw, T.; Bayen, A.M. Least Squares Regression. In Python Programming and Numerical Methods; Academic Press: Cambridge, MA, USA, 2021; pp. 279–293. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Romeo, G. Data analysis for business and economics. In Elements of Numerical Mathematical Economics with Excel; Academic Press: Cambridge, MA, USA, 2020; pp. 695–761. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Energy Import Dependency by Products. Available online: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/SDG_07_50/default/table (accessed on 12 June 2023).
Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices. Available online: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/TEC00001/default/table (accessed on 12 June 2023).
The Official Site of The World Bank. Available online: https://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/themes/economy.html#gross-national-income (accessed on 12 June 2023).
Reznikova, N.; Ivashchenko, O.; Kurbala, N. Identifiers of developed countries in international organizations’ mandates: The features of an advanced economy in the research focus. Ekon. Ta Derzhava 2020, 9, 17–24. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Share of Renewable Energy in Gross Final Energy Consumption. Available online: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/sdg_07_40/default/table?lang=en (accessed on 6 May 2023).
Huawei, T. Does gross domestic product, inflation, total investment, and exchanges rate matter in natural resources commodity prices volatility. Resour. Policy 2022, 79, 103013. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Charlier, D.; Fizaine, F. Decoupling gross domestic product and consumption of raw materials: A macro-panel analysis. Sustain. Prod. Consum. 2023, 36, 194–206. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Jankiewicz, M. The Convergence of Energy Use from Renewable Sources in the European Countries: Spatio-Temporal Approach. Energies 2021, 14, 8378. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Carfora, A.; Pansini, R.V.; Scandurra, G. Energy dependence, renewable energy generation and import demand: Are EU countries resilient? Renew. Energy 2022, 195, 1262–1274. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Wu, F.; Pfenninger, S. Challenges and opportunities for bioenergy in Europe: National deployment, policy support, and possible future roles. Bioresour. Technol. Rep. 2023, 22, 101430. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Li, H.-S.; Geng, Y.-C.; Shinwari, R.; Yangjie, W.; Rjoub, H. Does renewable energy electricity and economic complexity index help to achieve carbon neutrality target of top exporting countries? J. Environ. Manag. 2021, 299, 113386. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]

Figure 1. Energy import dependency (%).

Figure 2. Change of energy import dependency (%).

Figure 3. Renewable energy sources (%).

Figure 4. Change of renewable energy sources (%).

Figure 5. Gross domestic product (euro per capita).

Figure 6. Change of gross domestic product (euro per capita).

Figure 7. Graphic dependence of the influence of the renewable energy sources (%) and gross domestic product (euro per capita) on energy import dependency (%).

Figure 8. The influence of gross domestic product on energy import dependency.

Figure 9. The influence of renewable energy sources on energy import dependency.

Table 2. Statistical characteristics of the coefficients of Equation (2).

	Coefficients	t Stat	p-Value	Lower 95%	Upper 95%
b₁	61.781	7.949	4.161∙10⁻⁴	46.485	77.087
b₂	9.178∙10⁻⁴	3.026	2.701∙10⁻³	3.208∙10⁻⁴	1.515∙10⁻³
b₃	−1.182	−2.913	3.852∙10⁻³	−1.981	−0.3837
b₄	−4.234∙10⁻⁹	−1.759	7.958∙10⁻² > 0.05	−8.971∙10⁻⁹	5.027∙10⁻¹⁰
b₅	−2.080∙10⁻⁵	−2.730	6.719∙10⁻³	−3.579∙10⁻⁵	−5.805∙10⁻⁶
b₆	1.837∙10⁻²	2.360	1.892∙10⁻²	3.052∙10⁻³	3.369∙10⁻²

Table 3. Statistical characteristics of the coefficients of Equation (3).

	Coefficients	t Stat	p-Value	Lower 95%	Upper 95%
b₁	70.707	11.9688	3.96962∙10⁻⁴	59.080	82.335
b₂	4.194∙10⁻⁴	3.854	1.428∙10⁻⁴	2.053∙10⁻⁴	6.336∙10⁻⁴
b₃	−1.343	−3.384	8.121∙10⁻⁴	−2.124	−0.562
b₅	−1.307∙10⁻⁵	−2.092	3.726∙10⁻²	−2.537∙10⁻⁵	−7.76644∙10⁻⁷
b₆	1.678∙10⁻²	2.163	3.137∙10⁻²	1.510∙10⁻³	3.205∙10⁻²

Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content.

© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Kukharets, V.; Hutsol, T.; Kukharets, S.; Glowacki, S.; Nurek, T.; Sorokin, D. European Green Deal: The Impact of the Level of Renewable Energy Source and Gross Domestic Product per Capita on Energy Import Dependency. Sustainability 2023, 15, 11817. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511817

AMA Style

Kukharets V, Hutsol T, Kukharets S, Glowacki S, Nurek T, Sorokin D. European Green Deal: The Impact of the Level of Renewable Energy Source and Gross Domestic Product per Capita on Energy Import Dependency. Sustainability. 2023; 15(15):11817. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511817

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kukharets, Valentyna, Taras Hutsol, Savelii Kukharets, Szymon Glowacki, Tomasz Nurek, and Dmytro Sorokin. 2023. "European Green Deal: The Impact of the Level of Renewable Energy Source and Gross Domestic Product per Capita on Energy Import Dependency" Sustainability 15, no. 15: 11817. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511817

Note that from the first issue of 2016, this journal uses article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Menu

European Green Deal: The Impact of the Level of Renewable Energy Source and Gross Domestic Product per Capita on Energy Import Dependency

Abstract

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review

3. Materials and Methods

4. Results and Discussion

5. Conclusions

6. Recommendations and Prognosis

Author Contributions

Funding

Institutional Review Board Statement

Informed Consent Statement

Data Availability Statement

Conflicts of Interest

References

Share and Cite

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

Further Information

Guidelines

MDPI Initiatives

Follow MDPI