Analyzing the Potential Risk of Climate Change on Lyme Disease in Eastern Ontario, Canada Using Time Series Remotely Sensed Temperature Data and Tick Population Modelling
"> Figure 1
<p>The study area boundaries delineate the region of Ontario included for analysis. The northern boundary is defined by row 840 in the MODIS11C3 data, which encompassed all of southern Ontario and part of northern Ontario that coincided with ticks collected and submitted to Public Health Ontario.</p> "> Figure 2
<p>Change in mean monthly temperature in southern Ontario between 1979 and 2013. Data was obtained from the MOD11C3 land surface temperature product.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Summed basic reproductive number for tick populations in southern Ontario from 2001 to 2014. The values were reclassified as binary, with 1 for sustainable and 0 for unsustainable. A value of 14 indicates that a region was sustainable throughout the entire study period. A value between 1 and 13 inclusive indicates that a region became sustainable during the study period.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>The number of ticks submitted to Public Health Ontario (normalized according to road length to account for population accessibility differences) and plotted over the tick suitability output by the model. Red represents always sustainable, green regions became sustainable during the study period, and black areas are consistently unsustainable. The number of ticks was multiplied by a factor of 100 for clarity.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area, Data and Preprocessing
2.2. Analysis
2.2.1. Climate Data Analysis
2.2.2. Tick Population Modeling
2.2.3. Model Validation
3. Results
3.1. Changing Climate
3.2. Lyme Disease Risk
3.3. Model Validation
4. Discussion
- Climate in Ontario between 1979 and 2013 has been warming except for a small pocket in southern Ontario, which has been gradually cooling.
- The changing climate in Ontario has increased in areas in Ontario that are sustainable for carrying a reproductive tick population, given stable host finding for ticks.
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Cheng, A.; Chen, D.; Woodstock, K.; Ogden, N.H.; Wu, X.; Wu, J. Analyzing the Potential Risk of Climate Change on Lyme Disease in Eastern Ontario, Canada Using Time Series Remotely Sensed Temperature Data and Tick Population Modelling. Remote Sens. 2017, 9, 609. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9060609
Cheng A, Chen D, Woodstock K, Ogden NH, Wu X, Wu J. Analyzing the Potential Risk of Climate Change on Lyme Disease in Eastern Ontario, Canada Using Time Series Remotely Sensed Temperature Data and Tick Population Modelling. Remote Sensing. 2017; 9(6):609. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9060609
Chicago/Turabian StyleCheng, Angela, Dongmei Chen, Katherine Woodstock, Nicholas H. Ogden, Xiaotian Wu, and Jianhong Wu. 2017. "Analyzing the Potential Risk of Climate Change on Lyme Disease in Eastern Ontario, Canada Using Time Series Remotely Sensed Temperature Data and Tick Population Modelling" Remote Sensing 9, no. 6: 609. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9060609