Prediction Models of ≥2 MeV Electron Daily Fluences for 3 Days at GEO Orbit Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network
<p>(<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>) The distribution of the available ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences at roughly 75°W and 135°W; (<b>c</b>) the distribution of ≥10 MeV proton fluxes and the 13 month smoothed sunspot number; (<b>d</b>) the distribution of <span class="html-italic">Vsw</span> and <span class="html-italic">N</span>; (<b>e</b>) <span class="html-italic">T</span> and <span class="html-italic">Pd</span>; (<b>f</b>) <span class="html-italic">kp</span> and <span class="html-italic">AE</span>; and (<b>g</b>) <span class="html-italic">Dst</span> and <span class="html-italic">R0</span> from 1995 to 2010.</p> "> Figure 2
<p>(<b>a</b>) The distribution of ≥2 MeV electron fluxes from GOES-08 and GOES-10; (<b>b</b>) the calibration verification of ≥2 MeV electron fluxes between GOES-08 and GOES-10.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>(<b>a</b>–<b>c</b>) The PE values of models with different offset times and different input parameters for predicting ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences on the following three days at 75°W in the left panels; and (<b>d</b>–<b>f</b>) the PE values of models with different offset times and different input parameters for predicting ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences on the following three days at 135°W in the right panels at GEO orbit.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>(<b>a</b>–<b>c</b>) The PE values of models for 75°W with different inputs in the left panels; and (<b>d</b>–<b>f</b>) the PE values of models for 135°W with different inputs in the right panels. The different combinations are listed in the panels and the PE values from the models with different combinations as the inputs are plotted with different colours.</p> "> Figure 5
<p>(<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>) The comparisons of the ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences between the observations from the GOES satellites and the predictions of the LSTM model with (<span class="html-italic">F</span>, <span class="html-italic">Vsw</span>) as the inputs at 75°W or 135°W, and (<b>c</b>,<b>d</b>) the comparisons of the ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences between the observations from the GOES satellites and the predictions of the LSTM model with (<span class="html-italic">F</span>, <span class="html-italic">Vsw</span>, <span class="html-italic">Kp</span>) as the inputs at 75°W or 135°W. (<b>e</b>–<b>h</b>) Fluence–fluence coordinates.</p> "> Figure 6
<p>(<b>a</b>–<b>c</b>) The PE values of models predicting the ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences for the second day with different inputs at 75°W, and (<b>d</b>–<b>f</b>) the PE values of models predicting the ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences for the second day with different inputs at 135°W. The format is the same as in <a href="#remotesensing-15-02538-f004" class="html-fig">Figure 4</a>.</p> "> Figure 7
<p>(<b>a</b>–<b>c</b>) The PE values of models predicting the ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences for the third day with different inputs at 75°W, and (<b>d</b>–<b>f</b>) the PE values of models predicting the ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences for the third day with different inputs at 135°W. The format is the same as in <a href="#remotesensing-15-02538-f004" class="html-fig">Figure 4</a>.</p> "> Figure 8
<p>(<b>a</b>–<b>c</b>) The comparisons of the ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences between the observations from the GOES satellites and the prediction results of the LSTM models for second day with (<span class="html-italic">F</span>, <span class="html-italic">N</span>, <span class="html-italic">R0</span>) as input at 75°W and 135°W, and (<b>c</b>,<b>d</b>) the comparisons of the ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences between the observations from the GOES satellites and the prediction results of the LSTM models for third day with (<span class="html-italic">F</span>, <span class="html-italic">N</span>, <span class="html-italic">Pd</span>) as input at 75°W and 135°W. (<b>e</b>–<b>h</b>) Fluence–fluence coordinates.</p> "> Figure 9
<p>(<b>a</b>–<b>c</b>) The relationship between the PE values of the LSTM models for predicting the following day using (<span class="html-italic">F</span>, <span class="html-italic">Vsw</span>, <span class="html-italic">Kp</span>) as the inputs at 75°W (red dots) and 135°W (black dots) and the event number, day number and average duration of relativistic electron enhancement events in each year from 1995 to 2010; (<b>d</b>) the number of the relativistic electron enhancement events at 75°W (red curves) and 135°W (black curves) in each year from 1995 to 2010; and (<b>e</b>) the PE values during different stages of relativistic electron enhancement events from 1999 to 2008.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data and Processing
2.2. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and the Parameters of the Model
2.3. Model Evaluation
3. Results
3.1. The Selection of the Best Offset Time
3.2. The LSTM Models for Predicting ≥2 MeV Electron Daily Fluences on the Following Day at GEO Orbit
3.2.1. The Development of the LSTM Models
3.2.2. Comparisons with Different Models
3.3. The LSTM Models for Predicting ≥2 MeV Electron Daily Fluences for the Following Second or Third Day at GEO Orbit
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
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Longitude | Year | The Combinations of Different Parameters | PE of LSTM Model with Different Combinations |
---|---|---|---|
75°W | 1995–2010.08 | F + Vsw | 0.771 |
F + Kp | 0.769 | ||
F + N | 0.765 | ||
F + T | 0.764 | ||
F + AE | 0.758 | ||
135°W | 1999–2010 | F + Vsw | 0.790 |
F + Kp | 0.784 | ||
F + T | 0.780 | ||
F + R0 | 0.779 | ||
F + Pd | 0.778 | ||
75°W | 1995–2010.08 | F + Vsw + Kp | 0.801 |
F + N + Kp | 0.801 | ||
F + Vsw + AE | 0.799 | ||
F + T + Kp | 0.795 | ||
F + N + AE | 0.792 | ||
135°W | 1999–2010 | F + Vsw + Kp | 0.819 |
F + Vsw + AE | 0.818 | ||
F + N + AE | 0.815 | ||
F + T + Kp | 0.811 | ||
F + N + Kp | 0.810 |
Model/Year | The Sunspot Number | LSTM Model for 75°W (135°W) | SVM Model by Wang et al. (2012) [39] | RBF Model by Guo et al. (2013) [35] | Geomagnetic Pulsation Model by He et al., 2013) [25] | Empirical Orthogonal Function Model by Li et al., 2017) [26] | LSTM Model by Wei et al. (2018) [44] | EMD Model by Qian et al., 2020) [30] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
F + Vsw + Kp | A Total of Five Parameters | F + Vsw + ap | F + Pi12 + Pc5 | A Total of Eight Parameters | F + Vsw + Kp or F + R0 + Kp | A Total of Ten Parameters | ||
1995 | 24.78 | 0.769 | ||||||
1996 | 12.56 | 0.827 | ||||||
1997 | 30.50 | 0.743 | ||||||
1998 | 85.79 | 0.785 | ||||||
1999 | 139.67 | 0.790 (0.812) | ||||||
2000 | 169.89 | 0.607 (0.589) | ||||||
2001 | 168.28 | 0.606 (0.586) | 0.730 | |||||
2002 | 160.48 | 0.646 (0.705) | 0.670 | 0.810 | ||||
2003 | 102.95 | 0.777 (0.678) | 0.730 | 0.613 | 0.780 | |||
2004 | 66.29 | 0.790 (0.816) | 0.620 | 0.673 | 0.810 | |||
2005 | 44.83 | 0.765 (0.787) | 0.720 | 0.664 | 0.790 | |||
2006 | 26.05 | 0.859 (0.840) | 0.762 | 0.830 | ||||
2007 | 13.18 | 0.848 (0.779) | ||||||
2008 | 4.21 | 0.837 (0.806) | 0.710 | 0.776 | 0.833 | |||
2009 | 6.39 | 0.759 (0.886) | 0.808 | 0.896 | ||||
2010 | 26.19 | 0.833 (0.891) | 0.882 | 0.911 | ||||
1995–2010 (1999–2010) | 67.62 | 0.801 (0.819) |
Prediction | Longitude | Year | The Combinations of Different Parameters | PE of LSTM Model with Different Combinations |
---|---|---|---|---|
For the second day | 75°W | 1995–2010.08 | F + Vsw | 0.605 |
F + T | 0.586 | |||
F + Dst | 0.580 | |||
F + Bz | 0.573 | |||
F + N | 0.550 | |||
135°W | 1999–2010 | F + Vsw | 0.608 | |
F + T | 0.594 | |||
F + N | 0.543 | |||
F + Bz | 0.530 | |||
F + Dst | 0.528 | |||
For the third day | 75°W | 1995–2010.08 | F + Vsw | 0.461 |
F + T | 0.454 | |||
F + Bz | 0.410 | |||
F + Dst | 0.406 | |||
F + N | 0.401 | |||
135°W | 1999–2010 | F + Vsw | 0.475 | |
F + T | 0.467 | |||
F + Dst | 0.397 | |||
F + N | 0.391 | |||
F + Bz | 0.387 | |||
For the second day | 75°W | 1995–2010.08 | F + Vsw + N | 0.658 |
F + N + R0 | 0.651 | |||
F + Vsw + Pd | 0.649 | |||
F + Vsw + R0 | 0.638 | |||
F + N + Pd | 0.632 | |||
135°W | 1999–2010 | F + Vsw + AE | 0.643 | |
F + N + R0 | 0.637 | |||
F + Vsw + R0 | 0.632 | |||
F + N + Pd | 0.626 | |||
F + Vsw + Kp | 0.619 | |||
For the third day | 75°W | 1995–2010.08 | F + N + Pd | 0.523 |
F + Vsw + R0 | 0.514 | |||
F + Vsw + T | 0.507 | |||
F + Vsw + Dst | 0.505 | |||
F + Vsw + N | 0.504 | |||
135°W | 1999–2010 | F + N + Pd | 0.508 | |
F + N + R0 | 0.504 | |||
F + Vsw + N | 0.501 | |||
F + Vsw + R0 | 0.485 | |||
F + Vsw + Dst | 0.483 |
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Sun, X.; Lin, R.; Liu, S.; Luo, B.; Shi, L.; Zhong, Q.; Luo, X.; Gong, J.; Li, M. Prediction Models of ≥2 MeV Electron Daily Fluences for 3 Days at GEO Orbit Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network. Remote Sens. 2023, 15, 2538. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15102538
Sun X, Lin R, Liu S, Luo B, Shi L, Zhong Q, Luo X, Gong J, Li M. Prediction Models of ≥2 MeV Electron Daily Fluences for 3 Days at GEO Orbit Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network. Remote Sensing. 2023; 15(10):2538. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15102538
Chicago/Turabian StyleSun, Xiaojing, Ruilin Lin, Siqing Liu, Bingxian Luo, Liqin Shi, Qiuzhen Zhong, Xi Luo, Jiancun Gong, and Ming Li. 2023. "Prediction Models of ≥2 MeV Electron Daily Fluences for 3 Days at GEO Orbit Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network" Remote Sensing 15, no. 10: 2538. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15102538