Projected Future Distribution of Tsuga canadensis across Alternative Climate Scenarios in Maine, U.S
<p>The estimated current distribution of <span class="html-italic">Tsuga canadensis</span> (% basal area) by level II ecoregions at 30 m resolution throughout the state of Maine (<b>a</b>). Maine is located in the northeastern corner of the U.S. (<b>b</b>); Zoom 1 shows relatively low levels of <span class="html-italic">Tsuga canadensis</span> (% basal area) (<b>c</b>); and Zoom 2 shows coastal region with higher levels of <span class="html-italic">Tsuga canadensis</span> (% basal area) (<b>d</b>).</p> "> Figure 2
<p>The general work flow used to process raw netCDF files (available from NASA) into 30 years normal averages that more precisely mirror the PRISM climate data used in <span class="html-italic">Tsuga canadensis</span> current distribution model along with the other predictor variables (green) that remained constant, resulting in four map outputs. (<b>a</b>) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 2050, RCP 4.5 2100 and (<b>b</b>) RCP 8.5 2050, RCP 8.5 2100.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Historical and predicted average annual precipitation levels across Maine, U.S. displayed as 30 years normal using PRISM data (1990), RCP 4.5 (2050, 2100) and RCP 8.5 (2050, 2100).</p> "> Figure 4
<p>Thirty year normal minimum and maximum temperature for: PRISM data (1990), RCP 4.5 (2050, 2100), and RCP 8.5 (2050, 2100).</p> "> Figure 5
<p>Predicted future distribution of <span class="html-italic">Tsuga canadensis</span> suitable habitat for various climate change scenarios including: (<b>a</b>) RCP 4.5 (2050), (<b>b</b>) RCP 4.5 2100, (<b>c</b>) RCP 8.5 (2050), and (<b>d</b>) RCP 8.5 (2100).</p> "> Figure 6
<p>Projected values for <span class="html-italic">Tsuga canadensis</span> basal area and minimum and maximum temperature for (<b>a</b>) RCP 4.5 (2050), (<b>b</b>) RCP 4.5 (2100), (<b>c</b>) RCP 8.5 (2050), and (<b>d</b>) RCP 8.5 (2100).</p> "> Figure 7
<p>The range of precipitation and corresponding <span class="html-italic">Tsuga canadensis</span> basal area values of 2000 randomly generated points across Maine for (<b>a</b>) RCP 4.5 (2050), (<b>b</b>) RCP 4.5 (2100), (<b>c</b>) RCP 8.5 (2050), and (<b>d</b>) RCP 8.5 (2100).</p> "> Figure 8
<p>The estimated distribution for <span class="html-italic">Tsuga canadensis</span> as a percent of total stand basal for (<b>a</b>) current estimates (2010) with conserved lands, and (<b>b</b>) predicted distribution for 2050 under RCP 8.5 (high) along with conserved lands that can be managed as migration corridors.</p> "> Figure 9
<p>Prediction uncertainty of <span class="html-italic">Tsuga canadensis</span> relative basal area for RCP 8.5 in the year 2050 mapped as a coefficient of variation (%) of all trees used in the random forest algorithm.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Model Calibrations
2.3. Data Processing
2.4. Model Processing
2.5. Migration Corridor
2.6. Validation
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Tsuga canadensis (% basal area) | Year | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 | 2050 | 2100 | ||||||||
RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | |||||||
km2 | m2 ha−1 | km2 | m2 ha−1 | km2 | m2 ha−1 | km2 | m2 ha−1 | km2 | m2 ha−1 | |
Not present | 64,319 | 0.804 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1–15 | 6689 | 0.084 | 64,722 | 0.809 | 65,220 | 0.815 | 66,465 | 0.831 | 68,484 | 0.856 |
16–30 | 6703 | 0.084 | 14,392 | 0.180 | 13,933 | 0.174 | 12,770 | 0.160 | 10,820 | 0.135 |
>30 | 1622 | 0.020 | 217 | 0.003 | 178 | 0.002 | 97 | 0.001 | 29 | 0.000 |
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Dunckel, K.; Weiskittel, A.; Fiske, G. Projected Future Distribution of Tsuga canadensis across Alternative Climate Scenarios in Maine, U.S. Forests 2017, 8, 285. https://doi.org/10.3390/f8080285
Dunckel K, Weiskittel A, Fiske G. Projected Future Distribution of Tsuga canadensis across Alternative Climate Scenarios in Maine, U.S. Forests. 2017; 8(8):285. https://doi.org/10.3390/f8080285
Chicago/Turabian StyleDunckel, Kathleen, Aaron Weiskittel, and Greg Fiske. 2017. "Projected Future Distribution of Tsuga canadensis across Alternative Climate Scenarios in Maine, U.S" Forests 8, no. 8: 285. https://doi.org/10.3390/f8080285