Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation of Volcanic Ash Clouds from Satellite Observations: Application to the 24 December 2018 Mt. Etna Explosive Eruption
"> Figure 1
<p>Main box in Panel (<b>a</b>) shows the ash plume emitted during the 24 December 2018 eruption as captured by the sensor MODIS on-board Aqua polar satellite. The overpass time is 12:00 UTC which is coincident with the peak in Strombolian activity. The small upper-left box shows the location of Mt. Etna, while a picture taken during the eruption is displayed in the small lower-left box (photo taken by Boris Behncke). Panel (<b>b</b>) reports volcanic column height above sea level as estimated by the dark pixel procedure applied to SEVIRI data (blue dots) and by the calibrated VIS camera (gray dots).</p> "> Figure 2
<p>Results of a reference PLUME-MoM&HYSPLIT simulation. In Panels (<b>a</b>–<b>c</b>) the outcomes of PLUME-MoM are displayed, while Panel (<b>d</b>) presents the results of the HYSPLIT simulation initialized with the mass fluxes of particles computed by PLUME-MoM.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Workflow of the DA procedure developed for the present application.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>Comparison between the observed ash cloud and the results of PLUME-MoM&HYSPLIT simulations done without DA. Panels (<b>a</b>,<b>d</b>,<b>g</b>) show the cloud as seen from space, while Panels (<b>b</b>,<b>e</b>,<b>h</b>) report the results of a deterministic simulation initialized with the input parameters of <a href="#atmosphere-11-00359-t002" class="html-table">Table 2</a> and performed using the reference wind-field. Panels (<b>c</b>,<b>f</b>,<b>i</b>) present the outcomes of an ensemble simulation performed using the setting of EXP1.</p> "> Figure 5
<p>Mean states resulting from EXP1. Panels (<b>a</b>,<b>d</b>,<b>g</b>,<b>j</b>) show the ash cloud as detected from space (Observations). Panels (<b>b</b>,<b>e</b>,<b>h</b>,<b>k</b>) illustrate the ash cloud as predicted by the numerical model PLUME-MoM&HYSPLIT (Forecast state), while Panels (<b>c</b>,<b>f</b>,<b>i</b>,<b>l</b>) present the results of the assimilation cycles (Analyzed state). A cut-off of 0.01 t km<math display="inline"><semantics> <msup> <mrow/> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msup> </semantics></math> was applied to original ash column density. The edges of the original ash cloud (both forecast and analyzed) are indicated by the black dotted lines. In this figure are displayed the assimilation cycles performed at 12:30, 13:30, 14:30 and 15:30.</p> "> Figure 6
<p>Mean states resulting from EXP1. Panels (<b>a</b>,<b>d</b>,<b>g</b>) show the ash cloud as detected from space (Observations). Panels (<b>b</b>,<b>e</b>,<b>h</b>) illustrate the ash cloud as predicted by the numerical model PLUME-MoM&HYSPLIT (Forecast state), while Panels (<b>c</b>,<b>f</b>,<b>i</b>) present the results of the assimilation cycles (Analyzed state). A cut-off of 0.01 t km<math display="inline"><semantics> <msup> <mrow/> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msup> </semantics></math> was applied to original ash column density. The edges of the original ash cloud (both forecast and analyzed) are indicated by the black dotted lines. In this figure are displayed the assimilation cycles performed at 16:30, 17:30 and 18:30.</p> "> Figure 7
<p>Standard deviations of ash columnar content resulting from EXP1. Figure layout is the same as <a href="#atmosphere-11-00359-f005" class="html-fig">Figure 5</a>, while color bar scale has an upper limit of 2.5 t km<math display="inline"><semantics> <msup> <mrow/> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msup> </semantics></math> instead of 5 t km<math display="inline"><semantics> <msup> <mrow/> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msup> </semantics></math> as in <a href="#atmosphere-11-00359-f005" class="html-fig">Figure 5</a>. Panels (<b>a</b>,<b>d</b>,<b>g</b>,<b>j</b>) show the observation error (Observations: std). Panels (<b>b</b>,<b>e</b>,<b>h</b>,<b>k</b>) illustrate the standard deviation of ash columnar content as predicted by the numerical model PLUME-MoM&HYSPLIT (Forecast state: std), while Panels (<b>c</b>,<b>f</b>,<b>i</b>,<b>l</b>) present the standard deviation resulting from of the assimilation cycles (Analyzed state: std). Results of assimilation cycles performed at 12:30, 13:30, 14:30 and 15:30 are displayed.</p> "> Figure 8
<p>Same as <a href="#atmosphere-11-00359-f007" class="html-fig">Figure 7</a> but for the assimilation cycles performed at 16:30, 17:30 and 18:30. Panels (<b>a</b>,<b>d</b>,<b>g</b>) show the observation error (Observations). Panels (<b>b</b>,<b>e</b>,<b>h</b>) illustrate the standard deviation of ash columnar content as predicted by the numerical model PLUME-MoM&HYSPLIT (Forecast state), while Panels (<b>c</b>,<b>f</b>,<b>i</b>) present the standard deviation resulting from the assimilation cycles (Analyzed state).</p> "> Figure 9
<p>Panels from (<b>a</b>–<b>g</b>) show the rank histograms computed for the different time slices and considering all the points of the computational domain. The 49 ensemble members produce 50 bins (possible observation ranks). The cumulative histogram (panel (<b>h</b>)) was constructed by summing histograms of panels from (<b>a</b>–<b>g</b>).</p> "> Figure 10
<p>Panels from (<b>a</b>–<b>g</b>) show the Rank Probability Score (<math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mi>R</mi> <mi>P</mi> <mi>S</mi> </mrow> </semantics></math>) computed for the different time slices: 12:30, 13:30, 14:30, 15:30, 16:30, 17:30 and 18:30. <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mi>R</mi> <mi>P</mi> <mi>S</mi> </mrow> </semantics></math> was evaluated for the pixels presenting an observed value different from zero. The magenta pixels indicate the observations falling outside the range of the <span class="html-italic">m</span> ensemble values computed for the specific pixel. Dotted lines show the numerically predicted ash cloud.</p> "> Figure 11
<p>Each panel from (<b>a</b>–<b>g</b>) shows the True Positive (TP), False Positive (FP) and False Negative (FN) regions computed for each time slice. The number of pixels forming each region is used to compute indices <math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> </semantics></math>, <math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mrow> <mi>m</mi> <mi>p</mi> </mrow> </msub> </semantics></math> and <math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mrow> <mi>m</mi> <mi>s</mi> </mrow> </msub> </semantics></math>. Panel (<b>h</b>) shows the definition of such regions, with the blue area representing the forecast cloud, the magenta area the observed cloud and yellow area the common area between the forecast and the observed cloud.</p> "> Figure 12
<p><math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mi>R</mi> <mi>M</mi> <mi>S</mi> <mi>E</mi> <mi>s</mi> </mrow> </semantics></math> computed for observations (green lines), forecast states (blue lines), analyzed states (red lines) and non-assimilated states (cyan lines). Panels (<b>a</b>–<b>c</b>) are for EXP1, EXP2 and EXP3. These experiments differ for the angle used to perturb the wind-field (15<math display="inline"><semantics> <msup> <mrow/> <mo>∘</mo> </msup> </semantics></math>, 10<math display="inline"><semantics> <msup> <mrow/> <mo>∘</mo> </msup> </semantics></math> and 20<math display="inline"><semantics> <msup> <mrow/> <mo>∘</mo> </msup> </semantics></math> respectively). Results of EXP4 are shown in Panel (<b>d</b>), while results of EXP5 are presented in Panel (<b>e</b>). These two experiments present the same input of EXP1, but the observation sampling time is 30 min and 2 h respectively (it was 1 h for EXP1). Finally, results of EXP6 are displayed in Panel (<b>f</b>). The inset is a zoom of the <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mi>R</mi> <mi>M</mi> <mi>S</mi> <mi>E</mi> <mi>s</mi> </mrow> </semantics></math> computed for the first assimilation cycles. EXP6 was initialized with uncertainties on both wind-field and ESPs.</p> "> Figure 13
<p>Total atmospheric ash mass loading of observed, forecast and analyzed states. Panels from (<b>a</b>–<b>f</b>) show the results for the different experiments ordered as in <a href="#atmosphere-11-00359-f012" class="html-fig">Figure 12</a>.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Mt. Etna Case Study: the 24 December 2018 Flank Eruption
3. Numerical Models: Plume-Mom and Hysplit
4. Satellite Data
5. Data Assimilation: Algorithms And Tools
6. Data Assimilation Applied to Plume-Mom& HYSPLIT
6.1. Ensemble Creation
6.2. Observations Preprocessing
6.3. Data Assimilation Cycle
6.4. Simulation Settings
6.5. Evaluation Metrics
7. Results
8. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Experiment | N | m | t | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EXP1 | 15 | 0.5 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 49 | 1 h |
EXP2 | 10 | 0.5 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 49 | 1 h |
EXP3 | 20 | 0.5 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 49 | 1 h |
EXP4 | 15 | 0.5 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 49 | 30 min |
EXP5 | 15 | 0.5 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 49 | 2 h |
EXP6 | 15 | 0.5 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 45 | 1 h |
PLUME-MoM&HYSPLIT | |||
---|---|---|---|
1300 K | 0.1 | ||
0.03 % | 0.1 | ||
1610 JKkg | 37.73 | ||
2600 kgm | 15.00 | ||
1000 kgm | 3300 m | ||
0.6 | 50000 | ||
1000000 | |||
5 min |
Index | 13:30 | 15:30 | 18:30 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Deterministic | 28.57 | 23.75 | 22.07 | |
95.23 | 88.37 | 79.52 | ||
28.99 | 24.52 | 23.40 | ||
Ensemble | 56.30 | 51.96 | 49.46 | |
57.26 | 53.67 | 50.28 | ||
97.10 | 94.19 | 96.80 |
EXP | Index | 12:30 | 13:30 | 14:30 | 15:30 | 16:30 | 17:30 | 18:30 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EXP1 | 50.88 | 50.00 | 53.01 | 49.67 | 50.30 | 53.38 | 52.84 | |
67.44 | 50.75 | 53.57 | 50.00 | 51.30 | 53.50 | 53.14 | ||
67.44 | 97.10 | 98.36 | 98.71 | 100.00 | 99.59 | 98.94 | ||
3.732 | 2.142 | 1.456 | 1.074 | 0.857 | 0.727 | 0.674 | ||
EXP2 | 53.06 | 50.89 | 58.03 | 55.15 | 56.60 | 57.65 | 57.00 | |
81.25 | 57.00 | 61.20 | 56.18 | 57.10 | 58.35 | 58.08 | ||
60.46 | 82.60 | 91.80 | 96.77 | 98.47 | 97.97 | 96.80 | ||
3.611 | 2.209 | 1.492 | 1.120 | 0.923 | 0.796 | 0.727 | ||
EXP3 | 55.93 | 44.74 | 48.59 | 44.41 | 46.00 | 61.41 | 48.53 | |
67.35 | 45.03 | 48.79 | 44.41 | 46.00 | 63.41 | 48.61 | ||
76.74 | 98.55 | 99.18 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 95.12 | 99.64 | ||
3.667 | 2.000 | 1.343 | 1.003 | 0.802 | 0.667 | 0.610 | ||
EXP4 | 50.88 | 54.76 | 57.34 | 55.75 | 59.57 | 62.30 | 63.64 | |
67.44 | 54.76 | 57.62 | 55.75 | 59.57 | 62.79 | 65.00 | ||
67.44 | 100.00 | 99.18 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 98.78 | 96.80 | ||
3.723 | 1.178 | 0.774 | 0.609 | 0.522 | 0.476 | 0.458 | ||
EXP5 | 50.88 | 45.25 | 38.73 | 39.69 | ||||
67.44 | 45.77 | 38.73 | 39.74 | |||||
67.44 | 97.54 | 100.00 | 99.64 | |||||
3.728 | 2.513 | 1.495 | 1.063 | |||||
EXP6 | 37.62 | 24.03 | 37.15 | 30.45 | 32.13 | 35.92 | 46.15 | |
39.58 | 24.11 | 37.38 | 30.45 | 32.13 | 35.98 | 46.62 | ||
88.37 | 98.55 | 98.36 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 99.59 | 97.87 | ||
75.456 | 12.531 | 5.157 | 2.682 | 1.722 | 1.273 | 1.059 |
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Pardini, F.; Corradini, S.; Costa, A.; Esposti Ongaro, T.; Merucci, L.; Neri, A.; Stelitano, D.; de’ Michieli Vitturi, M. Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation of Volcanic Ash Clouds from Satellite Observations: Application to the 24 December 2018 Mt. Etna Explosive Eruption. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 359. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040359
Pardini F, Corradini S, Costa A, Esposti Ongaro T, Merucci L, Neri A, Stelitano D, de’ Michieli Vitturi M. Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation of Volcanic Ash Clouds from Satellite Observations: Application to the 24 December 2018 Mt. Etna Explosive Eruption. Atmosphere. 2020; 11(4):359. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040359
Chicago/Turabian StylePardini, Federica, Stefano Corradini, Antonio Costa, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Luca Merucci, Augusto Neri, Dario Stelitano, and Mattia de’ Michieli Vitturi. 2020. "Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation of Volcanic Ash Clouds from Satellite Observations: Application to the 24 December 2018 Mt. Etna Explosive Eruption" Atmosphere 11, no. 4: 359. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040359