Abstract
Human activity this century has increased the concentrations of atmospheric trace gases, which in turn has elevated global surface temperatures by blocking the escape of thermal infrared radiation. Natural climate variations are masking this temperature increase, but further additions of trace gases during the next 65 years could double or even quadruple the present effects, causing the global average temperature to rise by at least 1 °C and possibly by more than 5 °C. If the rise continues into the twenty-second century, the global average temperature may reach higher values than have occurred in the past 10 million years.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
$199.00 per year
only $3.90 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on SpringerLink
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Callendar, G. S. Q. Jl R. met. Soc. 64, 223–240 (1938).
Manabe, S. & Wetherald, R. T. J. atmos. Sci. 24, 241–259 (1967).
Manabe, S. & Stouffer, R. J. J. geophys. Res. 85, 5529–5554 (1980).
Climate Research Board Carbon Dioxide and Climate: Scientific Assessment (National Academy of Sciences, Washington DC, 1979).
Dickinson, R. E. Carbon Dioxide Review 1982 (ed. Clark, W.C.) 101–133 (Oxford University Press, 1982).
Hansen, J. et al. Maurice Ewing Symp. 5 (eds Hansen, J. & Takahasi, T.) (American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, 1984).
Washington, W. M. & Meehl, G. A. J. geophys. Res. 89, 9475–9503 (1984).
Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee Changing Climate (National Academy of Sciences, Washington DC, 1983).
Mitchell, J. F. B. Q. Jl R. met. Soc. 109, 112–152 (1984).
Bolin, B., Döös, B. R., Jager, J. & Warrick, R. A. (eds) The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change and Ecosystems. A Synthesis of the Present Knowledge (Wiley, Chichester, in the press).
Ramanathan, V. Science 190, 50–52 (1975).
Wang, W. C., Yung, Y. L., Lacis, A. A., Mo, T. & Hansen, J. E. Science 194, 685–690 (1976).
Dickinson, R. E., Liu, S. C. & Donahue, T. M. J. atmos. Sci. 35, 2142–2152 (1978).
Flohn, H. Carbon Dioxide, Climate and Society (ed. Williams, J.) 227–238 (Pergamon, London, 1978).
Fishman, J., Ramanathan, V., Crutzen, P. J. & Liu, S. C. Nature 282, 818–820 (1979).
Donner, L. & Ramanathan, V. J. atmos. Sci. 37, 119–124 (1980).
Hameed, S., Cess, R. D. & Hogan, J. J. geophys. Res. 85, 7537–7545 (1980).
Lacis, A., Hansen, J., Lee, P., Mitchell, P. & Lebedeff, S. Geophys. Res. Lett. 8, 1035–1038 (1981).
World Meteorological Organization WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Rep. No. 14 of the Meeting of Experts on Potential Climatic Effects of Ozone and Other Minor Trace Gases (World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 1982).
Ramanathan, V., Cicerone, R. J., Singh, H. B. & Kiehl, J. T. J. geophys. Res. 90, D3, 5547–5566 (1985).
Bolle, H.-J., Seiler, W. & Bolin, B. The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change, and Ecosystems. A Synthesis of the Present Knowledge Ch. 4 (Wiley, Chichester, in the press).
Prabhakara, C. & Dalu, G. J. geophys. Res. 81, 3719–3724 (1976).
Molina, M. J. & Rowland, F. S. Nature 249, 810–812 (1974).
National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council Stratospheric Ozone Depletion by Halocarbons: Chemistry and Transport (Washington DC, 1979).
Prather, M. J., McElroy, M. B. & Wofsy, S. C. Nature 312, 227–231 (1984).
Lovelock, J. E., Maggs, R. J. & Wade, R. J. Nature 241, 194–196 (1973).
Hester, N. E., Stephens, E. R. & Taylor, O. C. J. Air Pollut. Control Ass. 24, 491–595 (1974).
Penkett, S. A., Brice, K. A., Derwent, R. G. & Eggleton, A. E. J. Atmos. Envir. 13, 1011–1019 (1979).
Cunnold, D. M. et al. J. geophys. Res. 88, C13, 8379–8400 (1983).
Cunnold, D. M. et al. J. geophys. Res. 88, C13, 8401–8414 (1983).
Quinn, T. H. et al. Projected Use, Emissions and Banks of Potential Ozone-Depleting Substances WD-2483-1-EPA (Rand Corp., Santa Monica, 1985).
Stordal, F., Isaksen, I. S. A. & Horntveth, K. J. geophys. Res. 90, D3, 5757–5776 (1985).
Weiss, R. F. J. geophys. Res. 86, C8, 7185–7195 (1981).
Khalil, M. A. & Rasmussen, R. A. Tellus 35 B, 161–169 (1983).
Craig, H., Weiss, R. F. & Dowd, W. L. Pap. at Symp. on the Terrestrial Nitrogen Cycle and Possible Atmospheric Effects (American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, 1976).
Pierrotti, D. & Rasmussen, R. A. Geophys. Res. Lett. 3, 265–268 (1976).
Weiss, R. F. & Craig, H. Geophys. Res. Lett. 3, 751–754 (1976).
Delwiche, C. C. (ed.) Denitrification, Nitrification, and Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide (Wiley, New York, 1981).
Mosier, A. R., Parton, W. J. & Hutchinson, G. L. Environmental Biogeochemistry (ed. Hallberg, R.) (1982).
Perry, R. A. J. chem. Phys. 82, 5485–5488 (1985).
Rinsland, C. P., Levine, J. S. & Miles, T. Nature 318, 245–249 (1985).
Blake, D. R. & Rowland, F. S. J. atmos. Chem. (in the press).
Ehhalt, D. H., Zander, R. J. & Lamontagne, R. A. J. geophys. Res. 88, C13, 8442–8446 (1983).
Rasmussen, R. A. & Khalil, M. A. K. J. geophys. Res. 89, D7, 11599–11605 (1984).
Craig, H. & Chou, C. C. Geophys. Res. Lett. 9, 1221–1224 (1982).
Stauffer, B., Fischer, G., Neftel, A. & Oeschger, H. Science 229, 1386–1387 (1985).
Ehhalt, D. H. Tellus 26, 58–70 (1974).
Rasmussen, R. A. & Khalil, M. A. K. J. geophys. Res. 86, C10, 9826–9832 (1981).
Cicerone, R. J., Shetter, J. D. & Delwiche, C. C. J. geophys. Res. 88, C15, 11022–11024 (1983).
Seiler, W., Holzapfel-Pschorn, A., Conrad, R. & Scharfe, D. J. atmos. Chem. 1, 241–268 (1984).
Harriss, R. C., Gorham, E., Sebacher, D. I., Bartlett, K. B. & Flebbe, P. A. Nature 315, 652–654(1985).
Stevens, C. M. & Rust, F. E. J. geophys. Res. 87, C7, 4879–4882 (1982).
Khalil, M. A. K. & Rasmussen, R. A. Atmos. Envir. 19, 397–407 (1985).
Thompson, A. M. & Cicerone, R. J. Nature(submitted).
Logan, J. A. J. geophys. Res. 90, 10463, 10482 (1985).
Liu, S. C., Kley, D., McFarland, M., Mahlman, J.D. & Levy, H. II J. geophys. Res. 85, 7546–7552 (1980).
Crutzen, P. J. & Gidel, L. T. J. geophys. Res. 88, 6641–6661 (1983).
Gregory, G. L., Beck, S. M. & Williams, J. A. J. geophys. Res. 89, 9642–9648 (1984).
Levy, H., Mahlman, J. D., Moxim, W. J. & Liu, S. C. J. geophys. Res. 90, 3753–3772 (1985).
Isaksen, I. S. A. & Stordal, F. J. geophys. Res. 90 (in the press).
Somerville, R. C. J. & Rener, L. A. J. geophys. Res. 89, 9668–9672 (1984).
North, G. R., Cahalan, R. G. & Coakley, J. A. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 19, 91–122 (1981).
Ramanathan, V. & Coakley, J. A. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 16, 465–489 (1978).
Bretherton, F. P. Prog. Oceanogr. 11, 93–129 (1982).
Spelman, M. J. & Manabe, S. J. J. geophys. Res. 89, 571–586 (1984).
Bryan, K., Komro, F. G., Manabe, S. & Spelman, M. J. Science 215, 56–68 (1982).
Thompson, S. L. & Schneider, S. H. Science 217, 1031–1033 (1982).
Schneider, S. H. & Thompson, S. L. J. geophys. Res. 6, 3135–3147 (1981).
Wigley, T. M. L. & Schlesinger, M. E. Nature 315, 646–652 (1985).
Wigley, T. M. L. Climate Monitor 13, 133–148 (1985).
Clark, W. C. Ecologically Sustainable Development of the Biosphere (Publ. No. 26, IIASA, 1985).
Crutzen, P. J., The Geophysiology of Amazonia (ed. Dickinson, R. E.) Ch. 8 (Wiley, New York, in the press).
Parry, M. L. (ed.) Climatic Change (Spec. Issue) 7 (1985).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dickinson, R., Cicerone, R. Future global warming from atmospheric trace gases. Nature 319, 109–115 (1986). https://doi.org/10.1038/319109a0
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/319109a0
This article is cited by
-
Nitrogen and carbon addition changed nitrous oxide emissions from soil aggregates in straw-incorporated soil
Journal of Soils and Sediments (2022)
-
Effects of Silver Nanoparticles on Denitrification and Associated N2O Release in Estuarine and Marine Sediments
Journal of Ocean University of China (2022)
-
Future precipitation changes in three key sub-regions of East Asia: the roles of thermodynamics and dynamics
Climate Dynamics (2022)
-
Muted responses to chronic experimental nitrogen deposition on the Colorado Plateau
Oecologia (2021)
-
Synthesis of Convertible {PO4[WO3\(\rightleftharpoons\) W(O)2(O2)]4}-DMA16 in SBA-15 Nanochannels and Its Catalytic Oxidation Activity
Catalysis Letters (2019)
Comments
By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.