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Climatic and socioeconomic regionalization of the meteorological drought in Mexico using a predictive algorithm

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Abstract

Drought is one of the foremost extreme and dangerous hydrological phenomena that exist because of devastating social, economic, and environmental consequences. These consequences are highly dependent on the climate and water management characteristics of the place where it occurs. Monitoring and analyzing drought is challenging because of both its slow onset and that it is an unavoidable natural hazard whose occurrence is aggravated by climate change. This study aimed to regionalize meteorological drought considering climatic and socioeconomic variables for a better characterization of the Mexican municipalities affected by droughts to assist specific local planning and management. Regression and classification trees were used, to be an evidence-sustained tool that allows the generation of well-differentiated management plans according to the characteristics of each municipality in Mexico. As result, nine regions were found. Regionalization made it possible to identify the municipalities in Mexico that had the worst drought from 2003 to March 2020 as well as the climatic and socioeconomic characteristics that make them more vulnerable to this disaster.

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Data availability

All data that have contributed to the reported results are available from the corresponding author at request.

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Funding

This work was supported by the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT) under the scholarship Grant 769761.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto Interamericano de Tecnología y Ciencias del Agua (IITCA), Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Carretera Toluca-Ixtlahuaca km 14.5, Unidad San Cayetano, 50200, Toluca, Estado de México, México

    G. Y. Valenzuela-Morales, M. Hernández-Téllez, C. R. Fonseca-Ortiz, M. A. Gómez-Albores, R. Arévalo-Mejía, A. Mejía-Olivares & C. A. Mastachi-Loza

  2. Escuela Normal 1 de Toluca, Secretaría de Educación Pública del Estado de México, Toluca, Estado de México, México

    A. Esquivel-Ocadiz

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  1. G. Y. Valenzuela-Morales
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  2. M. Hernández-Téllez
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  3. C. R. Fonseca-Ortiz
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the conception and design of the study. Material preparation, data collection, and data curation were performed by V.-M., G.-A., and M.-O.A. Formal analysis was performed by V.-M., F.-O., A.-M., and M.-L. The first draft of the manuscript was written by V.-M. and M.-L. All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to C. A. Mastachi-Loza.

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Valenzuela-Morales, G.Y., Hernández-Téllez, M., Fonseca-Ortiz, C.R. et al. Climatic and socioeconomic regionalization of the meteorological drought in Mexico using a predictive algorithm. Nat Hazards 117, 1381–1403 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05908-z

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