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Integrating spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities for medium-scale landslide risk analysis in Darjeeling Himalayas, India

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Abstract

Landslide risk assessment is based on spatially integrating landslide hazard with exposed elements-at-risk to determine their vulnerability and to express the expected direct and indirect losses. There are three components that are relevant for expressing landslide hazard: spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities. At a medium-scale analysis, this is often done by first deriving a landslide susceptibility map, and to determine the three types of probabilities on the basis of landslide inventories linked to particular triggering events. The determination of spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities depend mainly on the availability of sufficiently complete historical records of past landslides, which in general are rare in most countries (e.g., India, etc.). In this paper, we presented an approach to use available historical information on landslide inventories for landslide hazard and risk analysis on a medium scale (1:25,000) in a perennially typical data-scarce environment in Darjeeling Himalayas (India). We demonstrate how the incompleteness in the resulting landslide database influences the various components in the calculation of specific risk of elements-at-risk (e.g., buildings, population, roads, etc.). We incorporate the uncertainties involved in the risk estimation and illustrate the range of expected losses in the form of maximum and minimum loss curves. The study demonstrates that even in data-scarce environments, quantitative landslide risk assessment is a viable option, as long as the uncertainties involved are expressed.

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Acknowledgements

The work presented here is part of the PhD research of Saibal Ghosh within the joint research project of the Geological Survey of India (GSI), National Remote Sensing Centre (India), ITC (The Netherlands). We are grateful to the local administrative authority of Kurseong Sub-division, Darjeeling district, Government of West Bengal, India for providing us the necessary logistics and data at field. This research was carried out in the framework of the United Nations University–ITC School for Disaster Geo-Information Management (www.itc.nl/unu/dgim/).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Engineering Geology Division, Geological Survey of India, Eastern Region, Kolkata, India

    Saibal Ghosh

  2. Department of Earth System Analysis, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands

    Saibal Ghosh, Cees J. van Westen, Emmanuel John M. Carranza & Victor G. Jetten

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  1. Saibal Ghosh
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  2. Cees J. van Westen
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  3. Emmanuel John M. Carranza
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  4. Victor G. Jetten
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Correspondence to Saibal Ghosh.

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Ghosh, S., van Westen, C.J., Carranza, E.J.M. et al. Integrating spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities for medium-scale landslide risk analysis in Darjeeling Himalayas, India. Landslides 9, 371–384 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-011-0304-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-011-0304-6

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