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Modelling groundwater over-extraction in the southern Jordan Valley with scarce data

Modélisation de la surexploitation des eaux souterraines dans le Sud de la Vallée du Jourdain avec peu de données

Modelando la sobreexplotación de aguas subterráneas en el Valle del Jordán meridional con escasez de datos

利用匮乏的数据模拟约旦河谷南部的地下水超采

Modelagem do excesso de extração de águas subterrâneas no sul do Vale do Jordão com dados escassos

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Abstract

To deal with the challenge of groundwater over-extraction in arid and semi-arid environments, it is necessary to establish management strategies based on the knowledge of hydrogeological conditions, which can be difficult in places where hydrogeological data are dispersed, scarce or present potential misinformation. Groundwater levels in the southern Jordan Valley (Jordan) have decreased drastically in the last three decades, caused by over-extraction of groundwater for irrigation purposes. This study presents a local, two-dimensional and transient numerical groundwater model, using MODFLOW, to characterise the groundwater system and the water balance in the southern Jordan Valley. Furthermore, scenarios are simulated regarding hydrological conditions and management options, like extension of arable land and closure of illegal wells, influencing the projection of groundwater extraction. A limited dataset, literature values, field surveys, and the ‘crop water-requirement method’ are combined to determine boundary conditions, aquifer parameters, and sources and sinks. The model results show good agreement between predicted and observed values; groundwater-level contours agree with the conceptual model and expected flow direction, and, in terms of water balance, flow volumes are in accordance with literature values. Average annual water consumption for irrigation is estimated to be 29 million m3 and simulation results show that a reduction of groundwater pumping by 40% could recover groundwater heads, reducing the water taken from storage. This study presents an example of how to develop a local numerical groundwater model to support management strategies under the condition of data scarcity.

Résumé

Pour relever le défi de la surexploitation des eaux souterraines dans les milieu arides et semi-arides, il est nécessaire d’établir des stratégies de gestion basées sur la connaissance des conditions hydrogéologiques. Cela peut être difficiles dans les endroits où les données hydrogéologiques sont dispersées, rares ou présentent une désinformation potentielle. Les niveaux des eaux souterraines dans le Sud de la Vallée du Jourdain (Jordanie) ont diminué de façon drastique au cours des trois dernières décennies, en raison de la surexploitation des eaux souterraines à des fins d’irrigation. Cette étude présente un modèle numérique bidimensionnel et transitoire des eaux souterraines à l’échelle locale, utilisant MODFLOW, afin de caractériser le système aquifère et le bilan hydrique dans la vallée méridionale du Jourdain. En outre, des scénarios sont simulés en ce qui concerne les conditions hydrologiques et les options de gestion, comme l’extension des terres arables et l’arrêt d’exploitation de puits illégaux, influençant la projection de l’exploitation des eaux souterraines. Un ensemble de données limité, des valeurs de la littérature, des enquêtes de terrain, et la ‘méthode d’évaluation de la demande d’eau des cultures’ sont combinés pour déterminer les conditions aux limites, les paramètres de l’aquifère, et les termes sources et puits. Les résultats du modèle montrent une bonne cohérence entre les valeurs prédites et observées; les contours piézométriques sont concordants avec le modèle conceptuel et les directions d’écoulement attendues, et, du point de vue du bilan hydraulique, les volumes écoulés sont conformes aux valeurs de la littérature. La consommation annuelle moyenne en eau pour l’irrigation est estimée à 29 millions m3 et les résultats des simulations montrent qu’une réduction des pompages d’eau souterraine de 40% pourrait permettre de récupérer les niveaux piézométriques, limitant ainsi les prélèvements d’eau stockée. Cette étude présente un exemple de la façon de développer un modèle numérique des eaux souterraines à l’échelle locale pour soutenir les stratégies de gestion en condition de rareté de données.

Resumen

Para enfrentar el desafío de la sobreextracción de agua subterránea en ambientes áridos y semiáridos, es necesario establecer estrategias de gestión basadas en el conocimiento de condiciones hidrogeológicas. Esto puede ser difícil en lugares donde los datos hidrogeológicos son dispersos, escasos o presentan posibles informaciones erróneas. Los niveles de agua subterránea en el valle del Jordán meridional (Jordania) han disminuido drásticamente en las últimas tres décadas, causado por la sobreexplotación de aguas subterráneas con fines de riego. Este estudio presenta un modelo numérico de aguas subterráneas local, bidimensional y de régimen transiente, utilizando MODFLOW, para caracterizar el sistema de aguas subterráneas y el balance hídrico en el valle del Jordán meridional. Además, se simulan escenarios sobre condiciones hidrológicas y opciones de gestión, como la extensión de tierras de cultivo y el cierre de pozos ilegales, que influyen en la proyección de la extracción de aguas subterráneas. Un conjunto de datos limitado, valores obtenidos de la literatura, evaluaciones en terreno y el “método de necesidades de riego de los cultivos” se combinan para determinar las condiciones de borde, los parámetros del acuífero y las recargas y extracciones. Los resultados del modelo muestran una buena relación entre los valores pronosticados y observados; los mapas de contornos concuerdan con el modelo conceptual y la dirección esperada del flujo y, en términos de balance hídrico, los volúmenes de flujo están en conformidad con los valores de la literatura. El consumo promedio anual de agua para riego es estimado en 29 millones de m3 y los resultados de la simulación muestran que una reducción del 40% de la captación de agua subterránea podría recuperar los niveles de agua subterránea, reduciendo el agua proveniente del almacenamiento. Este estudio presenta un ejemplo de cómo desarrollar un modelo numérico local de aguas subterráneas para apoyar estrategias de gestión bajo la condición de escasez de datos.

摘要

为了应对干旱、半干旱环境下地下水超采的挑战,有必要建立基于掌握水文地质条件的管理策略。这可能在水文地质数据零散、匮乏和有潜在错误信息的地方非常困难。(约旦)约旦河谷南部地下水位过去三十年来大幅下降,由地下水超采用于灌溉引起。本研究展示了一个局部的、二维和瞬时数值地下水模型,利用MODFLOW来描述约旦河谷南部的地下水系统和水平衡。此外,针对水文条件和管理选择,如影响地下水开采规划的可耕地扩展、非法井的关闭,对各种方案进行了模拟。有限的数据集、文献价值、野外调查及 “作物需水方法”联合在一起确定边界条件、含水层参数以及汇和源。模型结果显示,预测的值和观测的值非常吻合;地下水位等高图与概念模型和预计的水流方向一致,在水平衡方面,流量与文献值一致。平均每年灌溉水消耗量估计为2900万立方,模拟结果显示,地下水抽取减少40%就能恢复地下水水头,减少储存的使用量。本研究展示了怎样建立一个局部的地下水模型以支持数据匮乏条件下管理策略的例子。

Resumo

Para lidar com o desafio do excesso de extração de águas subterrâneas em ambientes áridos e semiáridos, é necessário estabelecer estratégias de gerenciamento baseadas no conhecimento das condições hidrogeológicas. Isso pode ser difícil em locais onde os dados hidrogeológicos são dispersos, escassos ou apresentam desinformação potencial. Os níveis freáticos no sul do Vale do Jordão decresceram drasticamente nas últimas três décadas, devido ao excesso de extração de águas subterrâneas para irrigação. Esse estudo apresenta um modelo numérico de águas subterrâneas local, bidimensional e transiente, utilizando o MODFLOW, para caracterizar o sistema de águas subterrâneas e o balanço hídrico no sul do Vale do Jordão. Ademais, os cenários são simulados em relação às condições hidrológicas e opções de gerenciamento, como extensão da terra arável e fechamento de poços ilegais, influenciando a projeção da extração de águas subterrâneas. Um conjunto de dados limitados, valores de literatura, pesquisas de campo, e o ‘método de requerimento de água das culturas’ são combinados para determinar as condições de contorno, parâmetros do aquífero, bem como as fontes e sumidouros. Os resultados do modelo apresentaram boa concordância entre os valores estimados e observados; as isolinhas do nível das águas subterrâneas coincidiram com o modelo conceitual e com a direção de fluxo esperada, e, em termos do balanço hídrico, os volumes de fluxo estão em conformidade com os valores da literatura. O consumo anual médio de água para irrigação foi estimado como 29 milhões de m3 e os resultados da simulação demonstraram que uma redução de 40% no bombeamento das águas subterrâneas poderiam recuperar os níveis freáticos, reduzindo a água retirada do armazenamento. Esse estudo apresenta um exemplo de como desenvolver um modelo numérico local de águas subterrâneas para apoiar estratégias de gerenciamento sob a condição de escassez de dados.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Jordan Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI) for their support and provision of data. The research described in this paper was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in the framework of the SMART Project (Sustainable Management of Available Water Resources with Innovative Technologies) (FKZ 02WM1079-1086 and FKZ02WM1211-1212).

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  1. Institute of Applied Geosciences, Division of Hydrogeology, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kaiserstr. 12, 76131, Karlsruhe, Germany

    Paulina Alfaro, Tanja Liesch & Nico Goldscheider

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  1. Paulina Alfaro
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  2. Tanja Liesch
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  3. Nico Goldscheider
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Correspondence to Paulina Alfaro.

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Alfaro, P., Liesch, T. & Goldscheider, N. Modelling groundwater over-extraction in the southern Jordan Valley with scarce data. Hydrogeol J 25, 1319–1340 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-017-1535-y

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