Abstract
This study examines the long-term change in the threat of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in East Asia over the period 1975–2020 with a focus on rapidly intensifying (RI) TCs. The increase in the annual number of RI-TCs over the western North Pacific and the northwestward shift of their genesis location lead to an increasing trend in the annual number of landfalling RI-TCs along the coast of East Asia. The annual power dissipation index (PDI), a measure of the destructive potential of RI-TCs at landfall, also shows a significant increasing trend due to increases in the annual frequency and mean landfall intensity of landfalling RI-TCs. The increase in mean landfall intensity is related to a higher lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) and the LMI location of the landfalling RI-TCs being closer to the coast. The increase in the annual PDI of East Asia is mainly associated with landfalling TCs in the southern (the Philippines, South China, and Vietnam) and northern parts (Japan and the Korean Peninsula) of East Asia due to long-term changes in vertical wind shear and TC heat potential. The former leads to a northwestward shift of favorable environments for TC genesis and intensification, resulting in the northwestward shift in the genesis, RI, and LMI locations of RI-TCs. The latter provides more heat energy from the ocean for TC intensification, increasing its chances to undergo RI.
摘 要
本文研究了在1975-2020年期间登陆东亚地区的热带气旋 (TC) 威胁的长期变化, 而重点放在迅速加强 (RI) TC。西北太平洋 RI-TC 年数量的增加及其生成位置向西北移动导致每年东亚沿海登陆的 RI-TC 数量呈增加趋势。由于每年登陆 RI-TC 的频率和平均登陆强度的增加, 年功率耗散指数(PDI)(衡量 RI-TC 登陆时潜在破坏力的指标)也有显著增加的趋势。而平均登陆强度的增加与RI-TC 有更高的生命期最大强度 (LMI) 及其位置更靠近海岸有关。东亚地区的年PDI的增加主要与东亚南部(菲律宾、华南和越南)和北部(日本和朝鲜半岛)的PDI增加有关, 而主因是垂直风切变和热带气旋潜热的长期变化; 前者导致有利于TC 生成和加强的环境向西北移动, 因而导致 RI-TC 的生成、RI 和 LMI 的位置向西北移动; 后者为 TC 的加强提供了更多的海洋热能, 增加RI 的机会。
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Acknowledgements
This project is supported by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong Grant City U E-CityU101/16.
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Article Highlights
• The threat of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones making landfall along the coast of East Asia shows a significant increasing trend.
• The location of lifetime maximum intensity is closer to the coast, resulting in a higher annual mean landfall intensity.
• The long-term changes in vertical wind shear and tropical cyclone heat potential are the major factors responsible for the above changes.
This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Climate Change and Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity.
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Liu, K.S., Chan, J.C.L. Growing Threat of Rapidly-Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in East Asia. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 39, 222–234 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1126-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1126-7