Abstract
Two practical techniques: Time Series (TS) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), for the one-step-ahead short-term peak load forecasting have been proposed and discussed in this paper. We use weather variables since it is well known that better forecasting performances can be obtained taking them into account. The order selection of TS and the number input neurons of the ANN have are based on the computation of correlation functions. Their performances are evaluated through a simulation study. An extensive test activity of the two techniques shows that have better forecasting accuracy and robustness ANN models.
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Moghram, S. and S. Rahman, “Analysis and Evaluation of Five Short-term Load Forecasting Techniques”, IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, v. 5, n. 4, 1989, pp. 1484–1491.
Brockwell, P.J. and R.A. Davis, Time series: Theory and Methods, Springer-Verlag, 2nd Edition, 1991.
Temraz, H.K., Salama, M.M.A. and V.H. Quintana, “Application of the Decomposition Technique for Forecasting the load of a Large Electric Power Network”, IEE Procs. Gener. Transm. Distrib., v.143, n.1, 1996, 13–18.
Tang, Z. and P. Fishwick, “Feed-forward Neural Nets as Models for Time Series Forecasting”, U. Florida, working paper UF-CIS-TR-91-008, 1991.
Mohammed, O., et al., “Practical experiences with an adaptive neural network short-term load forecasting system”, IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, v. 10, n. 1, 1995, pp. 254–265.
Cottrell, M., Girard, B., Girard, Y., Mangeas, M., Muller, C, “Neural Modeling for Time Series: A Statistical Stepwise Method for Weight Elimination”, IEEE Trans. on Neural Networks, v. 6, n. 6, 1995, pp. 1355–1364.
Park, Y.R., Murray, T.J., and Ch. Chen, “ Predicting Sun Spots using a Layered Perceptron Neural Network”, IEEE Trans. on Neural Networks, v. 7, n. 2, 1996, pp.501–505.
Marín, F.J. and F. Sandoval, “Electric Load Forecasting with Genetic Neural Networks”, aceppted for publication in ICANNGA'97.
Weigend, A.S., Rumelhart, D.E., and B.A., Huberman, “Generalization by weight-elimination applied to currency exchange rate prediction”, in Proc. Int. Joint Conf. Neural Networks, Seattle, WA, v. 1, 1991, pp. 837–841.
SAS/ETS, User's Guide, Version 6, SAS Institute Inc., USA, 1988.
MATLAB, Neural Network Toolbox, User's Guide, MathWorks, Inc., USA, 1994.
Widrow, B. and M.E. Hoff, “Adaptive switching circuits”, IRE WESTCON Convention Record, 1960, pp. 96–104.
Rumelhart, D.E., Hinton, G.E. y Williams, R.J., “Learning internal representations by error propagation”, Parallel Distributed Proccessing, v. 1, 1986, 310–362.
Hagan, M.T. y Menhaj, M.B., “Training Feedforward Networks with the Marquardt Algorithm”, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, v. 5, n. 6, 1994, pp. 989–993.
Elman, J.L., “Finding structure in time”, Cognitive Science, v. 14, 1990, pp. 179–211.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1997 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Marín, F.J., Sandoval, F. (1997). Short-term peak load forecasting: Statistical methods versus Artificial Neural Networks. In: Mira, J., Moreno-Díaz, R., Cabestany, J. (eds) Biological and Artificial Computation: From Neuroscience to Technology. IWANN 1997. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 1240. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0032594
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0032594
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-63047-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-69074-0
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive