Papers by Christopher Graziul
Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, 2022
The DARPA Ground Truth project sought to evaluate social science by constructing four varied simu... more The DARPA Ground Truth project sought to evaluate social science by constructing four varied simulated social worlds with hidden causality and unleashed teams of scientists to collect data, discover their causal structure, predict their future, and prescribe policies to create desired outcomes. This large-scale, long-term experiment of in silico social science, about which the ground truth of simulated worlds was known, but not by us, reveals the limits of contemporary quantitative social science methodology. First, problem solving without a shared ontology—in which many world characteristics remain existentially uncertain—poses strong limits to quantitative analysis even when scientists share a common task, and suggests how they could become insurmountable without it. Second, data labels biased the associations our analysts made and assumptions they employed, often away from the simulated causal processes those labels signified, suggesting limits on the degree to which analytic concepts developed in one domain may port to others. Third, the current standard for computational social science publication is a demonstration of novel causes, but this limits the relevance of models to solve problems and propose policies that benefit from the simpler and less surprising answers associated with most important causes, or the combination of all causes. Fourth, most singular quantitative methods applied on their own did not help to solve most analytical challenges, and we explored a range of established and emerging methods, including probabilistic programming, deep neural networks, systems of predictive probabilistic finite state machines, and more to achieve plausible solutions. However, despite these limitations common to the current practice of computational social science, we find on the positive side that even imperfect knowledge can be sufficient to identify robust prediction if a more pluralistic approach is applied. Applying competing approaches by distinct subteams, including at one point the vast TopCoder.com global community of problem solvers, enabled discovery of many aspects of the relevant structure underlying worlds that singular methods could not. Together, these lessons suggest how different a policy-oriented computational social science would be than the computational social science we have inherited. Computational social science that serves policy would need to endure more failure, sustain more diversity, maintain
more uncertainty, and allow for more complexity than current institutions support.
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Environment and Planning B, 2018
What are the social bases of neighborhood formation in urban areas, and at what spatial scale are... more What are the social bases of neighborhood formation in urban areas, and at what spatial scale are they most distinct from other neighborhoods? We address these questions in the case of St. Louis, Missouri, in 1930, where we can take advantage of unique geocoded census microdata on the whole population of the city that identifies who, with what background characteristics, lived where. Our analyses show that homophily by race and ethnicity was by far the strongest factor linking characteristics of persons to the composition of their neighbors. Measures of social class also were quite important, while the person’s nativity and family status were statistically significant but minor predictors. Yet while this hierarchy of social factors held for the population as a whole, their relative importance varied greatly across racial/ethnic groups. Similarity in social class to neighbors was most important for native whites, nativity counted as much or more than class for recently arriving immigrant groups including Russians, Italians, and Poles, and race/ethnicity was by far the key predictor for these groups and blacks. We also found that these patterns of homophily were clearest at the scale of individual street segment and first-order combinations of segments. They were similar but less distinct at a larger spatial scale.
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This article analyzes how a congregation's theology and denominational affiliation influence the ... more This article analyzes how a congregation's theology and denominational affiliation influence the racial ties of its white members. We posit two distinct pathways. In the first, theologically conservative congregations generate more embedded social ties (measured by number of friendships) than do non-conservative congregations, and more congregation friendships increase the likelihood of cross-racial ties. In the second pathway, congregations not affiliated with historically major denominational families report higher levels of racial diversity, and high levels of congregation racial diversity increase the likelihood of cross-racial ties. Our key methodological innovation is to divide Evangelical congregations into two categories: those affiliated with the historically major families (Baptist, Lutheran, Methodist, Presbyterian) and those not (e.g., Pentecostal, Seventh-Day Adventist). Christian groups that join theological conservatism and outsider (non-major) status generate high levels of friendships and racial diversity in their congregations, both of which contribute to cross-racial ties among white members. Analysis of survey data from a national probability sample of white Christians (2006 Faith Matters Survey) mostly supports our hypotheses.
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Handbook of Creative Cities, 2011
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Medical care, Nov 2012
Off-label prescribing, or the use of a medicine for non-Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approv... more Off-label prescribing, or the use of a medicine for non-Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved indications, is especially common for psychotropic therapies and often lacks scientific support. We quantified the association between 4 commercial characteristics of prescription medicines-product age, therapeutic class age, drug volume, and promotional expenditures-and off-label use of antidepressants, antipsychotics, and mood stabilizers from 1998 through 2009. We linked data from the IMS Health National Disease and Therapeutic Index, a nationally representative audit of office-based physicians, with data from FDA@gov and the drug compendium DrugDex, to derive information regarding off-label use. Our primary outcome was the rate (per 1000 uses) with which a drug was prescribed for non-FDA-approved indications during a given calendar year. We used mixed-effects regression models with random intercepts for each drug, adding measures of commercial characteristics as fixed effects within this model. From 1998 through 2009, the average proportion of all uses that occurred off-label was 23.3% for antidepressants, 60.7% for antipsychotics, and 54.2% for mood stabilizers. There was a positive association between the annual rate of off-label use and drug volume [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 1.41; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.32-1.50], although the strength of this association was not uniform across the therapeutic classes examined. There was also a small but statistically significant association between product age (IRR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.94-0.98) and class age (IRR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06) and the rate of off-label use, also varying across therapeutic class. There was a statistically significant inverse association between promotional expenditures and off-label use (IRR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.93-0.96) when controlling for our other commercial characteristics. These associations were similar when examining scientifically unsupported rather than all off-label use. Our findings suggest that drug prescription volume, rather than product age or therapeutic class age, should be scrutinized further to identify settings where the public health impact of unsupported off-label prescribing may be particularly important.
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BMC health services research, Nov 30, 2012
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Chapters by Christopher Graziul
This chapter investigates the consequences of local ‘scenes’ for urban development. It treats the... more This chapter investigates the consequences of local ‘scenes’ for urban development. It treats the particular constellation of amenities in a place – cafes, galleries, pubs, music venues, fashion houses, dance clubs, antique shops, restaurants, fruit stands, convenience stores and the like – as constituting the local scene. These constellations of amenities define the scene by making available an array of meaningful experiences to residents and visitors. Scenes give a sense of drama, authenticity and ethical significance to a city’s streets and strips. Depending on its particular configuration of amenities, a vibrant scene can transform an urban area into a theatrical place to see and be seen (glamorously, transgressively or in other ways), an authentic place to explore and affirm local, ethnic or national identities (among others), an ethical place to share and debate common values and ideals (such as tradition or self expression). The availability of these experiences varies substantially across and even within cities and regions. These variations have significant consequences for urban economies and populations.
We propose several hypotheses and analyses about scenes as one factor that contributes to ‘creative cities’. We situate these propositions within a broader universe of ideas about the significance of creativity. First, we offer a brief overview of the processes involved in what we call the institutionalization and internalization of creativity. This is a process whereby creativity moves from the margins to the centre of basic conceptions of human action, bringing with it special attention to the specific mechanisms through which creative activity is more likely to occur in one place and moment rather than another. Second, we briefly review some classic and contemporary hypotheses about what these multiple mechanisms might be, such as education, technology, density and the like. Third, we propose adding scenes as a distinctly important factor of creativity.
We offer a brief introduction to our scenes perspective on urban development, before proposing and testing several hypotheses about how scenes drive urban development.
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Syllabi by Christopher Graziul
Based on the University of Chicago's Master of Arts Programs in the Social Sciences' core "Persp... more Based on the University of Chicago's Master of Arts Programs in the Social Sciences' core "Perspectives in Social Science Analysis" course. Original contributions include: (1) deciding which social science perspectives to include, (2) how each perspective is defined via foundational/exemplar texts, and (3) the way perspectives are organized in relation to each other (i.e., micro vs. macro).
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Thesis Chapters by Christopher Graziul
The neighborhood effects literature often focuses on the intersection of race and community conte... more The neighborhood effects literature often focuses on the intersection of race and community context, but equally often the mechanisms that link the two are ambiguous. To clarify their relationship, I introduce a novel analytic object termed a " venue " – a discrete physical space with an ostensible purpose and behavioral rules and norms for fulfilling this purpose. Using the Black Church as inspiration, I demonstrate how the built environment can promote unequal access to social capital by showing that venues allow residents to realize subtle preferences for same race interaction partners (i.e. homophily). Using a novel synthesis of survey and administrative data that permits comparison among church-goers and local community members, I find that respondents, regardless of race, are more likely to forgo the benefits of church friendships when churches are located in venue-rich communities. However, the presence of other venues has no effect on the likelihood that respondents are highly embedded in their church if there are proportionally more same race congregants than same race local residents. This study speaks to a number of ongoing questions regarding the social processes behind neighborhood effects, the relationship between race and community context, and the unequal distribution of network-based resources across racial groups.
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This article presents a novel analytic object for studying how the intersection of location, cult... more This article presents a novel analytic object for studying how the intersection of location, culture, and networks can influence how we interact with each other. This object, termed a venue, is the synthesis of a persistent social context with a discrete space for social interaction (e.g. a restaurant). I argue that the ostensible purpose of a venue and its style of fulfilling this purpose provide two key forms of social possibility: (1) the ability to interact, (2) guidelines regarding how to interact. As zones of social possibility, venues also provide access to potential interaction partners. Similarly, they give patrons the ability to reinterpret or challenge the behavioral expectations they are presented. Conversely, I argue that the set of available venues is always finite and can thus impose social constraints on with whom we can interact, how we can interact with them, and the social outcomes of these interactions.
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Book Reviews by Christopher Graziul
Science, Jan 1, 2008
The strength of Red State, Blue State is that Gelman et al. build a tight, parsimonious
argument... more The strength of Red State, Blue State is that Gelman et al. build a tight, parsimonious
argument. Their work resembles mathematical model–building, sans equations. Extending the power of their methods by adding a few more critical processes would enrich the study of American politics. But even if too simplistic, this fun-to-read book may become a minor classic.
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Conference Presentations by Christopher Graziul
Presented to American Political Science Association. Boston, MA, August 2008.
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Uploads
Papers by Christopher Graziul
more uncertainty, and allow for more complexity than current institutions support.
Chapters by Christopher Graziul
We propose several hypotheses and analyses about scenes as one factor that contributes to ‘creative cities’. We situate these propositions within a broader universe of ideas about the significance of creativity. First, we offer a brief overview of the processes involved in what we call the institutionalization and internalization of creativity. This is a process whereby creativity moves from the margins to the centre of basic conceptions of human action, bringing with it special attention to the specific mechanisms through which creative activity is more likely to occur in one place and moment rather than another. Second, we briefly review some classic and contemporary hypotheses about what these multiple mechanisms might be, such as education, technology, density and the like. Third, we propose adding scenes as a distinctly important factor of creativity.
We offer a brief introduction to our scenes perspective on urban development, before proposing and testing several hypotheses about how scenes drive urban development.
Syllabi by Christopher Graziul
Thesis Chapters by Christopher Graziul
Book Reviews by Christopher Graziul
argument. Their work resembles mathematical model–building, sans equations. Extending the power of their methods by adding a few more critical processes would enrich the study of American politics. But even if too simplistic, this fun-to-read book may become a minor classic.
Conference Presentations by Christopher Graziul
more uncertainty, and allow for more complexity than current institutions support.
We propose several hypotheses and analyses about scenes as one factor that contributes to ‘creative cities’. We situate these propositions within a broader universe of ideas about the significance of creativity. First, we offer a brief overview of the processes involved in what we call the institutionalization and internalization of creativity. This is a process whereby creativity moves from the margins to the centre of basic conceptions of human action, bringing with it special attention to the specific mechanisms through which creative activity is more likely to occur in one place and moment rather than another. Second, we briefly review some classic and contemporary hypotheses about what these multiple mechanisms might be, such as education, technology, density and the like. Third, we propose adding scenes as a distinctly important factor of creativity.
We offer a brief introduction to our scenes perspective on urban development, before proposing and testing several hypotheses about how scenes drive urban development.
argument. Their work resembles mathematical model–building, sans equations. Extending the power of their methods by adding a few more critical processes would enrich the study of American politics. But even if too simplistic, this fun-to-read book may become a minor classic.