MLB Players with the Most to Prove for Rest of 2024

The 2024 MLB season has entered its stretch run, which legend says is a notoriously high-pressure time for all players.

Maybe that isn't actually true for every player in the league, but it's definitely true for some.

With this in mind, let's dive into the players who have the most to prove in the final two months of the 2024 season. A total of 15 players are covered, though they're sorted into just 10 slots. Don't worry, it'll make sense when you come across the several-for-one specials.

These players don't fit neatly into one specific box. A couple are highly regarded youngsters who have suddenly been thrust into the spotlight. There are also veterans who must show they've still got it and pending free agents who stand to make (or lose) a lot of money.

Let's get to it.

Age: 20

2024 Stats: 15 G, 57 PA, 2 HR, 0 SB, .173 AVG, .246 OBP, .308 SLG

Jackson Holliday wasn't ready for his first stint with the Orioles. For his second, he pretty much has to be.

That first stint began amidst the kind of hype that can only come from MLB's No. 1 prospect getting the call to The Show. Yet "failed to launch" would be putting it kindly. Holliday got his butt handed to him between April 10 and 23, going 2-for-34 with 18 strikeouts before he was sent back down to Triple-A.

A subsequent chilly spell and time on the injured list with elbow inflammation further degraded Holliday's stock. Per B/R's Joel Reuter, he even lost his grip on the No. 1 spot among MLB prospects.

Fortunately, Holliday's second stint with Baltimore is off to a better start. He's 7-for-18 in five games, starting with a contest on July 31 in which he hit a grand slam for his first MLB homer.

Alas, it was moments before that ball left Holliday's bat that the Orioles lost All-Star third baseman Jordan Westburg to a fractured hand. It's a big loss, especially with the Orioles having fallen into a tie with the New York Yankees for first place in the American League East.

The pressure on Holliday therefore isn't just to prove that he is indeed the best prospect in baseball. It's to prove he's ready to help carry the Orioles right now.

Age: 20

2024 Stats: 98 G, 356 PA, 12 HR, 13 SB, .266 AVG, .310 OBP, .420 SLG

Speaking of talented 20-year-olds named Jackson, remember when Jackson Chourio was being hyped as the next big thing in Milwaukee?

The Brewers showed how strongly they believed in him last December, inking him to an $82 million deal that set a record for a prospect with no MLB experience. And not unjustifiably so, as he was seen as a contender for the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year.

That quest started well enough, but then Chourio more or less faded into the background. And that's putting it mildly, as he had a 57-game stretch in which he hit just .209/.260/.326.

But with the Brewers nonetheless looking to make it back-to-back NL Central titles, Chourio is firmly in the limelight again by way of Christian Yelich's back injury.

It's unclear whether Yelich will return this year, but the Brewers will be relying on Chourio to fill the 2018 NL MVP's shoes in left field. He's started out there in 15 of the club's last 17 games.

That Chourio has risen to the occasion by hitting .328 in this span should have the Brewers feeling hopeful. Because if this is a mere momentary warm streak, anything other than Yelich's return could make it impossible for the Brewers to account for his lost production.

Age: 24

2024 Stats: 113 G, 497 PA, 20 HR, 25 SB, .344 AVG, .390 OBP, .590 SLG

Whereas Holliday and Chourio are still in the early stages of proving they can be the stars they're meant to be, Bobby Witt Jr. seems to understand the assignment.

After following a solid rookie year in 2022 with a pretty good year in 2023, he's fully matured as a superstar in 2024. Along with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the New York Yankees, he's one of only three players in MLB who have already topped 7.0 WAR.

"He's the face of baseball moving forward, or at least part of the face along with a lot of other good players, and I don't say that lightly," Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said of Witt.

So, why is Witt here? Basically because of how much he means to the Royals, as seen in their records when:

• Witt Scores a Run: 43-21
• Witt Drives in a Run: 30-17
• Witt Scores and Drives in a Run: 27-9

Despite that, the Royals are in a precarious spot. They currently hold the AL's third wild card, but the Boston Red Sox (2.5 GB) and Houston Astros (5.0 GB) aren't far off the pace.

Any slump on Witt's part could potentially kill the Royals' playoff odds, so they'd better hope he changes the trend of September being his worst month.

Age: 30

2024 Stats: 107 G, 465 PA, 14 HR, 3 SB, .249 AVG, .308 OBP, .406 SLG

If the Astros are going to catch the Royals or reclaim the AL West lead from the Seattle Mariners, it would help if the offense got going again.

It was the driving force behind the club's 36-19 run between May 12 and July 12, producing 5.2 runs per game. But it's more so been part of the problem amid a 7-9 slump, putting out only 3.1 runs per game.

It will help when the Astros get Kyle Tucker back from a surprisingly long absence with a shin contusion. In the meantime, what they really need is for Alex Bregman to get warm again.

Just as he helped fuel that 36-19 stretch with an .863 OPS and 11 homers, he's helped bring the Astros down as they've lost seven out of their last 17 games. In this span, he has just a .588 OPS with two homers (though, to be fair, one of those was a walk-off) as his overall OPS has dropped to a career-low .714.

For an idea of what's at stake for the Astros, consider their playoff odds. According to FanGraphs, they're down from 65.9 to 49.2 percent since July 12.

Then there's Bregman himself, who is notably due to hit free agency this winter. And while he's a strong candidate for a $200 million deal on paper, a Matt Chapman-like purgatory could potentially await him if his slump extends to the end of the year.

Age: 28

2024 Stats: 19 GS, 112.2 IP, 88 H (15 HR), 140 K, 20 BB, 2.80 ERA

As to other pending free agents who have a lot riding on the last two months of the 2024 season, let's just say it's already been quite the journey for Jack Flaherty.

The Detroit Tigers signed the right-hander to a one-year, $14 million deal last December as a reclamation project. And it worked, as he posted a sub-3.00 ERA in 18 starts to build up value worthy of a solid trade return from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

It was nonetheless out there before the deadline that Flaherty was battling a bad back. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the New York Yankees were so spooked by his medicals that they reneged on a "preliminary trade agreement" they had with the Tigers.

So, there's that. And also, you know, just the pressure of helping the Dodgers hang on to their NL West lead and pushing them as deep into October want to go.

It's so far, so good on this end for Flaherty. He was excellent in his Dodgers debut on Saturday, hurling six shutout innings with seven strikeouts and one walk.

If Flaherty doesn't keep this up, though, he could potentially be left out of a playoff rotation that will only have so much room for him, Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone and Yoshinobu Yamamoto if he's healthy.

Team SP 2024 Stats: 112 GS, 559.0 IP, 576 H (66 HR), 464 K, 161 BB, 4.70 ERA

One of the teams pursuing the Dodgers in the NL West also has question marks in its starting rotation. So many, in fact, that there's no point zeroing in on just one Diamondbacks pitcher.

It is indeed in spite of their starting pitching that Arizona is only 5.0 games behind the Dodgers and in a tight contest with the New York Mets (1.5 GB), St. Louis Cardinals (3.0 GB) and Pittsburgh Pirates (3.5 GB) for the NL's third wild card.

Whereas Arizona's rotation looked like a top-10 unit coming into the season, it ranks dead-last in WAR and is responsible for 31 of the team's 52 losses.

For the moment, though, things are looking up.

Merrill Kelly (shoulder strain) and Eduardo Rodriguez (lat strain) should finally return from long stays on the injured list in August. In the meantime, Zac Gallen is basically doing his usual thing, and Jordan Montgomery and Brandon Pfaadt have both been pitching well lately.

Better work from the rotation in the stretch run would figure to further heat up a team that is already warmed. The Snakes are 21-9 since June 29.

If what actually happens is more of the same, they may be saying "There's always next year" in Phoenix come the end of September.

Age: 32

2024 Stats: 105 G, 437 PA, 17 HR, 5 SB, .272 AVG, .325 OBP, .448 SLG

The other team in hot pursuit of the Dodgers is the San Diego Padres, and Manny Machado doesn't seem to think beating them is merely an option.

"We've got to beat this team," he said after the Padres earned a two-game sweep over the Dodgers last week. "We've got to go through them."

Doable? Maybe. And that may be an understatement in light of how far the Friars have already come. They trailed the Dodgers by 10.0 games as recently as June 18. Now their deficit is only 4.5 games.

What would really help, though, is if Machado himself walked the walk in these final weeks of the regular season.

He hasn't been a liability, necessarily, but this is the second season in a row that his OPS has been in the .700s instead of the mid-.800s like it typically was between 2015 and 2022. As these are merely the first two years of his 11-year, $350 million deal, "uncomfortable" is an appropriate word to describe this juxtaposition of player and contract.

Granted, Machado's .464 average and four homers in his last seven games suggest he understands what's at stake, both for the Padres and for his reputation as the star in the middle of it all. He just needs to continue suggesting that he does.

Ages: 30 (Olson) and 27 (Riley)

Combined 2024 Stats: 208 G, 875 PA, 33 HR, 0 SB, .242 AVG, .315 OBP, .434 SLG

Shifting to the NL East, Atlanta has not one, but two sluggers whom they could have expected to carry them through the good times, the bad times and everything in between in 2024.

Instead, here's the How It Started vs. the How It's Going for Matt Olson and Austin Riley:

• 2023: .926 OPS, 91 HR
• 2024: .749 OPS, 33 HR

It's a fall from grace that is impossible to separate from that of Atlanta's whole offense. They've lost 95 points off their slugging percentage from last season, easily the largest of any team in MLB.

It's only fair to note that reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. was also having a rough one before he tore his ACL in late May. Yet whereas Atlanta had no choice but to hope that event would spur Olson and Riley, they've only modestly improved to a combined .765 OPS since Acuña played his last game on May 26.

Yet even in the face of all of this and a slump that necessitated a players-only meeting in July, Atlanta holds the NL's top wild-card spot and has even seen its deficit to the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East fall to 6.0 games from 10.0 games on July 5.

With five homers in his last nine games, Olson seems motivated to bring the best possible outcome. But Riley? Less so. That's as many homers as he has in his last 25 games.

Age: 36

Has not pitched in 2024

And now to longtime NL East denizen Jacob deGrom, who's hoping his right arm can help get the Rangers back to the playoffs to defend their World Series title.

"Obviously, I've been zero help this year, so the goal is to get out there and help us," deGrom said on Saturday. "Hopefully that's not too far away."

The two-time Cy Young Award winner hasn't helped because he's 14 months removed from undergoing his second Tommy John surgery. When he'll be back remains unclear, but sometime before the end of August seems realistic.

With their deficit in the AL West at 5.5 games, the Rangers aren't merely looking at deGrom as a nice piece to have for the stretch run. General manager Chris Young specifically noted deGrom's pending return as part of the reason why he traded Michael Lorenzen to Kansas City.

The hope would seem to be that deGrom is, well, deGrom. Heck, even the guy who posted a 2.67 ERA with 41 more strikeouts than walks in six starts last year would do.

Yet this is also a guy who has made a total of 32 starts over the last four seasons. And far from a solid one, he'll be slotting into a rotation that has been generally short on reliability after de facto ace Nathan Eovaldi.

Basically, deGrom being anything short of the ace whom the Rangers paid $185 million for isn't likely to cut it.

Age: 33

2024 Stats: 8 GS, 40.2 IP, 45 H (9 HR), 42 K, 12 BB, 5.09 ERA

If deGrom wants an example to follow, he probably shouldn't look to Gerrit Cole.

Expectations were naturally high for Cole when he returned to the Yankees after a long stay on the IL with elbow discomfort on June 19. And initially, he lived up to them with four strong innings against the Orioles.

The righty only has a 5.15 ERA in seven starts since then, however. And while that number is skewed by a couple of bad outings against the Mets, it's harder to explain away how Cole's average fastball is nearly 2 mph slower than it was in 2022.

From here, add in that Cole had to be scratched from a July 30 assignment with "general body fatigue." And then, how his return against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday was marked by frequent hard contact.

The bottom line is that Cole is part of the problem within the Yankees' rotation, and what a problem it is. Since June 15, it has an MLB-high 6.07 ERA and has recorded 19 of the club's 24 losses overall.

That the Yankees are nonetheless tied for first place in the AL East is the good news. But the longer Cole pitches like he's neither the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner nor the ace the Yankees are paying $324 million, the more precarious their position will feel.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.