Books by Paulo Shakarian
AAAI-MAKE, 2023
We study the performance of a commercially available large language model (LLM) known as ChatGPT ... more We study the performance of a commercially available large language model (LLM) known as ChatGPT on math word problems (MWPs) from the dataset DRAW-1K. To our knowledge, this is the first independent evaluation of ChatGPT. We found that ChatGPT's performance changes dramatically based on the requirement to show its work, failing 20% of the time when it provides work compared with 84% when it does not. Further several factors about MWPs relating to the number of unknowns and number of operations that lead to a higher probability of failure when compared with the prior, specifically noting (across all experiments) that the probability of failure increases linearly with the number of addition and subtraction operations. We also have released the dataset of ChatGPT's responses to the MWPs to support further work on the characterization of LLM performance and present baseline machine learning models to predict if ChatGPT can correctly answer an MWP. We have released a dataset comprised of ChatGPT's responses to support further research in this area.
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ICLP, 2024
The ability to generate artificial human movement patterns while meeting location and time constr... more The ability to generate artificial human movement patterns while meeting location and time constraints is an important problem in the security community, particularly as it enables the study of the analog problem of detecting such patterns while maintaining privacy. We frame this problem as an instance of abduction guided by a novel parsimony function represented as an aggregate truth value over an annotated logic program. This approach has the added benefit of affording explainability to an analyst user. By showing that any subset of such a program can provide a lower bound on this parsimony requirement, we are able to abduce movement trajectories efficiently through an informed (i.e., A*) search. We describe how our implementation was enhanced with the application of multiple techniques in order to be scaled and integrated with a cloud-based software stack that included bottom-up rule learning, geolocated knowledge graph retrieval/management, and interfaces with government systems for independently conducted government-run tests for which we provide results. We also report on our own experiments showing that we not only provide exact results but also scale to very large scenarios and provide realistic agent trajectories that can go undetected by machine learning anomaly detectors.
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In recent years, research on diffusion process in social networks has grown in a variety of field... more In recent years, research on diffusion process in social networks has grown in a variety of fields including computer science, physics, and biology. However, often times research in these individual disciplines becomes stove-piped. In this book, we focus on cutting-edge research in social network diffusion bringing together a range of ideas from these disciplines with the goal of creating a single volume that examines these ideas.
We sought to cover many of the most important concepts, models, and methods from these areas. We felt by exploring a variety of work from different fields that we could help open the door to more innovative findings in this fascinating area of diffusion in social networks.
Preprint currently available - book to be released by Springer in Fall, 2015.
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Sushil Jajodia, Paulo Shakarian, VS Subrahmanian, Vipin Swarup, Cliff Wang
This book features ... more Sushil Jajodia, Paulo Shakarian, VS Subrahmanian, Vipin Swarup, Cliff Wang
This book features a wide spectrum of the latest computer science research relating to cyber warfare, including military and policy dimensions. It is the first book to explore the scientific foundation of cyber warfare and features research from the areas of artificial intelligence, game theory, programming languages, graph theory and more. The high-level approach and emphasis on scientific rigor provides insights on ways to improve cyber warfare defense worldwide. Cyber Warfare: Building the Scientific Foundation targets researchers and practitioners working in cyber security, especially government employees or contractors. Advanced-level students in computer science and electrical engineering with an interest in security will also find this content valuable as a secondary textbook or reference.
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• Provides a multidisciplinary approach to Cyber Warfare analyzing the information technology, mi... more • Provides a multidisciplinary approach to Cyber Warfare analyzing the information technology, military, policy, social, and scientific issues that are in play.
• Presents detailed case studies of cyber-attack including inter-state cyber-conflict (Russia-Estonia), cyber-attack as an element of an information operations strategy (Israel-Hezbollah,) and cyber-attack as a tool against dissidents within a state (Russia, Iran)
• Explores cyber-attack conducted by large, powerful, non-state hacking organizations such as Anonymous and LulzSec
• Covers cyber-attacks directed against infrastructure such including but not limited to water treatment plants, power-grid and a detailed account on Stuxent"""
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Imagine yourself as a military officer in a conflict zone trying to identify locations of weapons... more Imagine yourself as a military officer in a conflict zone trying to identify locations of weapons caches supporting road-side bomb attacks on your country’s troops. Or imagine yourself as a public health expert trying to identify the location of contaminated water that is causing diarrheal diseases in a local population. Geospatial abduction is a new technique introduced by the authors that allows such problems to be solved. Geospatial Abduction provides the mathematics underlying geospatial abduction and the algorithms to solve them in practice; it has wide applicability and can be used by practitioners and researchers in many different fields. Real-world applications of geospatial abduction to military problems are included. Compelling examples drawn from other domains as diverse as criminology, epidemiology and archaeology are covered as well. This book also includes access to a dedicated website on geospatial abduction hosted by University of Maryland. Geospatial Abduction targets practitioners working in general AI, game theory, linear programming, data mining, machine learning, and more. Those working in the fields of computer science, mathematics, geoinformation, geological and biological science will also find this book valuable.
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Papers by Paulo Shakarian
Big Data and Cognitive Computing
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative... more This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY
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Proceedings of the 21th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining - KDD '15, 2015
Elham Shaabani, Ashkan Aleali, Paulo Shakarian, John Bertetto KDD 2015 (Aug., 2015) Gang violence... more Elham Shaabani, Ashkan Aleali, Paulo Shakarian, John Bertetto KDD 2015 (Aug., 2015) Gang violence is a major problem in the United States ac- counting for a large fraction of homicides and other vio- lent crime. In this paper, we study the problem of early identification of violent gang members. Our approach re- lies on modified centrality measures that take into account additional data of the individuals in the social network of co-arrestees which together with other arrest metadata pro- vide a rich set of features for a classification algorithm. We show our approach obtains high precision and recall (0.89 and 0.78 respectively) in the case where the entire network is known and out-performs current approaches used by law- enforcement to the problem in the case where the network is discovered overtime by virtue of new arrests - mimick- ing real-world law-enforcement operations. Operational is- sues are also discussed as we are preparing to leverage this method in an operational environment.
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SpringerBriefs in Computer Science, 2015
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Proceedings of the 2015 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining 2015 - ASONAM '15, 2015
Ruocheng Guo, Elham Shaabani, Abhinav Bhatnagar, Paulo Shakarian ASONAM '15 When a piece ... more Ruocheng Guo, Elham Shaabani, Abhinav Bhatnagar, Paulo Shakarian ASONAM '15 When a piece of information (microblog, photograph, video, link, etc.) starts to spread in a social network, an important question arises: will it spread to "viral" proportions -- where "viral" is defined as an order-of-magnitude increase. However, several previous studies have established that cascade size and frequency are related through a power-law - which leads to a severe imbalance in this classification problem. In this paper, we devise a suite of measurements based on "structural diversity" -- the variety of social contexts (communities) in which individuals partaking in a given cascade engage. We demonstrate these measures are able to distinguish viral from non-viral cascades, despite the severe imbalance of the data for this problem. Further, we leverage these measurements as features in a classification approach, successfully predicting microblogs that grow from 50 to 500 reposts with precision of 0.69 and recall of 0.52 for the viral class - despite this class comprising under 2\% of samples. This significantly outperforms our baseline approach as well as the current state-of-the-art. Our work also demonstrates how we can tradeoff between precision and recall.
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SpringerBriefs in Computer Science, 2015
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SpringerBriefs in Computer Science, 2015
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SpringerBriefs in Computer Science, 2015
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SpringerBriefs in Computer Science, 2015
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SpringerBriefs in Computer Science, 2015
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SpringerBriefs in Computer Science, 2015
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(Originally Published in NGA Pathfinder, 2016)
Analyzing large sets of data using techniques such... more (Originally Published in NGA Pathfinder, 2016)
Analyzing large sets of data using techniques such as machine learning, artificial intelligence and statistics can lead to improved insight and potentially better decisions. But the field is still young, and there are many challenges that must be considered along the way. Of specific concern are cleaning and preparation, causality, model transparency and decision support.
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Uploads
Books by Paulo Shakarian
We sought to cover many of the most important concepts, models, and methods from these areas. We felt by exploring a variety of work from different fields that we could help open the door to more innovative findings in this fascinating area of diffusion in social networks.
Preprint currently available - book to be released by Springer in Fall, 2015.
This book features a wide spectrum of the latest computer science research relating to cyber warfare, including military and policy dimensions. It is the first book to explore the scientific foundation of cyber warfare and features research from the areas of artificial intelligence, game theory, programming languages, graph theory and more. The high-level approach and emphasis on scientific rigor provides insights on ways to improve cyber warfare defense worldwide. Cyber Warfare: Building the Scientific Foundation targets researchers and practitioners working in cyber security, especially government employees or contractors. Advanced-level students in computer science and electrical engineering with an interest in security will also find this content valuable as a secondary textbook or reference.
• Presents detailed case studies of cyber-attack including inter-state cyber-conflict (Russia-Estonia), cyber-attack as an element of an information operations strategy (Israel-Hezbollah,) and cyber-attack as a tool against dissidents within a state (Russia, Iran)
• Explores cyber-attack conducted by large, powerful, non-state hacking organizations such as Anonymous and LulzSec
• Covers cyber-attacks directed against infrastructure such including but not limited to water treatment plants, power-grid and a detailed account on Stuxent"""
Papers by Paulo Shakarian
Analyzing large sets of data using techniques such as machine learning, artificial intelligence and statistics can lead to improved insight and potentially better decisions. But the field is still young, and there are many challenges that must be considered along the way. Of specific concern are cleaning and preparation, causality, model transparency and decision support.
We sought to cover many of the most important concepts, models, and methods from these areas. We felt by exploring a variety of work from different fields that we could help open the door to more innovative findings in this fascinating area of diffusion in social networks.
Preprint currently available - book to be released by Springer in Fall, 2015.
This book features a wide spectrum of the latest computer science research relating to cyber warfare, including military and policy dimensions. It is the first book to explore the scientific foundation of cyber warfare and features research from the areas of artificial intelligence, game theory, programming languages, graph theory and more. The high-level approach and emphasis on scientific rigor provides insights on ways to improve cyber warfare defense worldwide. Cyber Warfare: Building the Scientific Foundation targets researchers and practitioners working in cyber security, especially government employees or contractors. Advanced-level students in computer science and electrical engineering with an interest in security will also find this content valuable as a secondary textbook or reference.
• Presents detailed case studies of cyber-attack including inter-state cyber-conflict (Russia-Estonia), cyber-attack as an element of an information operations strategy (Israel-Hezbollah,) and cyber-attack as a tool against dissidents within a state (Russia, Iran)
• Explores cyber-attack conducted by large, powerful, non-state hacking organizations such as Anonymous and LulzSec
• Covers cyber-attacks directed against infrastructure such including but not limited to water treatment plants, power-grid and a detailed account on Stuxent"""
Analyzing large sets of data using techniques such as machine learning, artificial intelligence and statistics can lead to improved insight and potentially better decisions. But the field is still young, and there are many challenges that must be considered along the way. Of specific concern are cleaning and preparation, causality, model transparency and decision support.