Biostatistics
Lecture 1
By EMMANUEL NAKUA
Course Objectives
The Objectives of the course are:
i. To equip students with the knowledge
and skills to collect, organize and
summarize data
ii. To develop in the students, and ability to
analyze data and draw scientific
conclusions or inferences from such
data.
iii. To create in the students, and ability to
understand medical literature.
LECTURE 1: OUTLINE
1. The Scientific Method
2. Biostatistics
• What is biostatistics?
• Role of biostatistics in public health
• Key ideas in statistical reasoning
• Biostatistics and the scientific method
3. A Statistical Perspective on Cause
4. Biostatistics Paradigm
1. The Scientific Method
One model for the scientific method
• Competing hypotheses about nature
• H0, H1, H2, H3, ……., H
• Design a study and generate data
• Data are evidence in support of some of the
hypotheses more than others
• Science is a process of eliminating hypotheses
whose predictions are inconsistent with
observation. Generating new hypotheses is a
creative, not scientific act.
1. The Scientific Method-cont’d
• Scientific revolution
– Old hypotheses challenged by new ones
– Changes to important questions, goals, methods
• Science is like a soccer game of four-year olds
2.biostatistics
• Biostatistics -- application of statistical reasoning and methods
to the solution of biological, medical and public health problems
• Biostatistics -- scientific use of quantitative information to
describe or draw inferences about natural phenomena
– scientific -- accepted theory (ideas) and practice; ethical
standards
– quantitative information -- data reflecting variation in
populations
– inference -- to conclude or surmise from evidence
2.1 Role of Biostatistics in Science
(e.g., Public Health)
1. Generate hypotheses: ask questions.
2. Design and conduct studies to generate
evidence; collect data.
• 3. Descriptive statistics: describe the
distributions of observations.
• 4. Statistical inference: assess strength of
evidence in favor of competing hypotheses;
use data to update beliefs and make
decisions.
2.1.1The Role of Biostatistics in
Health Sciences and Health Care
Delivery
• Statistical methods are consciously or
subconsciously applied in health care
delivery at the community and individual
patient level.
• At the community level, they are used to
monitor and assess the health situation
and trends, or the predict the likely
outcome of an intervention programme.
2.1.2The Role of Biostatistics in
Health Sciences and Health Care
Delivery cont’d
• At the patient level, they are used to arrive at
the most likely diagnosis, to predict the
prognostic course and to evaluate the relative
efficacy of various modes of treatment.
• Knowledge of statistics is also essential for a
critical understanding of medical literature.
• Statistical principles are also essential for
planning, conducting and interpreting
biomedical, clinical, and community health
research.
2.1.3 How Do Hypotheses
Originate?
• Act of creativity, informed by:
• Scientific background
• Prior observations
• Results of prior studies
• Scientific intuition
2.1.4 Design of a Study
• Ask a precise, testable and appropriate
question
• Choose a research approach and design
• Define outcome of interest
• Define comparison groups
• Choose a population to study
2.1.5 Descriptive Statistics
• Also known as Exploratory Data Analysis
(EDA)
• Organization and summarization of data
• Graphical display to visualize important
patterns and variation
• Hypothesis generating
2.1.6 Statistical Inference
• Also known as Confirmatory Data Analysis
(CDA)
• Draw conclusions about a population (whole
group) from a sample (representative part of
a group)
• Assess strength of evidence in support of
competing hypotheses
• Make comparisons
• Make predictions
• Statistical inference uses data to surmise
what is true or likely to be true.
2.1.7 Statistical Inference
2.2.Key Ideas in Statistical Reasoning
1. Natural laws do not perfectly predict all phenomena -- e.g., coin
tossing, disease incidence.
2. Probability models are useful tools for representing “tendencies”
in the presence of variation.
3. Variation across people, over time and space, is itself a natural
phenomenon.
4. Variation leads to uncertainty about a particular event.
5. There are important patterns (tendencies, signals, laws) to be
discovered in the midst of variation.
3. Biostatistics Paradigm
• Public health research attempts to discover simple explanations
for “how the world works”; in particular, the interrelationships
among variables.
• explanations - hypotheses about mechanisms
• variable- a characteristic taking on different values
• simple - scientists prefer simple, rather than
• complex explanations; Occam's razor; principle of parsimony
• inter-relationships- associations; causal Connections
• Causal graphs as short-hand notation
Variables
• Variable - a characteristics taking on different values
• Random variable - a variable for which the values obtained are
usually thought of as arising partly as a result of chance factors
• Response variable (Y) - the outcome measure; that which is
affected or caused; often a health measure
• Explanatory variables (X) - those which affect or cause the
response:
– Treatment (intervention) – explanatory variable that can be
controlled by the scientist.
- Risk factors variables which influence the risk of the
outcome; scientific interest (e.g. smoking; salt intake);
usually cannot be controlled.
Variables (cont’d)
• Confounders - other variables which need to
be taken into account when assessing the
association of treatments or risk factors with a
response.
• Effect modifiers - variables which identify
subgroups of people (units) across which the
relationship of a treatment (risk factor) and
outcome will differ.
