SESSION 8 -9
PROF. KIRIT GHOSH
CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
• A continuous random variable can assume any value in an interval on
the real line or in a collection of intervals.
• It is not possible to talk about the probability of the random variable
assuming a particular value.
• Instead, we talk about the probability of the random variable assuming
a value within a given interval.
CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
• The probability of the random variable assuming a value within some
given interval from x1 to x2 is defined to be the area under the graph of
the probability density function between x1 and x2.
AREA AS A MEASURE OF PROBABILITY
• The area under the graph of f(x) and probability are identical.
• This is valid for all continuous random variables.
• The probability that x takes on a value between some lower value x1
and some higher value x2 can be found by computing the area under
the graph of f(x) over the interval from x1 to x2.
NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
• The normal probability distribution is the most important distribution for describing a
continuous random variable.
• It is widely used in statistical inference.
• It has been used in a wide variety of applications including:
• Heights of people
• Amounts of rainfall
• Test scores
• Scientific measurements
• Abraham de Moivre, a French mathematician, published The Doctrine of Chances in 1733.
• He derived the normal distribution.
NORMAL PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION
• https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~mbognar/applets/normal.html
The entire family of normal probability distributions is defined by its
mean μ and its standard deviation σ.
The highest point on the normal curve is at the mean, which is also the
median and mode.
NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Empirical Rule
68.26% of values of a normal
random variable are within 1
standard deviation of its mean.
95.44% of values of a normal
random variable are within 2
standard deviations of its mean.
99.72% of values of a normal
random variable are within 3
standard deviations of its mean.
STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
A random variable having a normal distribution
with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1 is
said to have a standard normal probability
distribution.
The letter z is used to designate the standard
normal random variable.
We can think of z as a measure of the number of
standard deviations x is from μ.
PROBLEMS
Pep Zone sells auto parts and supplies including a popular multi-grade
motor oil. When the stock of this oil drops to 20 gallons, a replenishment
order is placed. The store manager is concerned that sales are being lost
due to stockouts while waiting for a replenishment order. It has been
determined that demand during replenishment lead-time is normally
distributed with a mean of 15 gallons and a standard deviation of 6
gallons. The manager would like to know the probability of a stockout
during replenishment lead-time. In other words, what is the probability
that demand during lead-time will exceed 20 gallons?
PROBLEM
PROBLEMS
• If the manager of Pep Zone wants the probability of a stockout during
replenishment lead-time to be no more than .05, what should the
reorder point be?
PROBLEMS
• A company pays its employees an average wage of $3.25 an hour with
a standard deviation of 60 cents. If the wages are approximately
normally distributed, determine
1.the proportion of the workers getting wages
between $2.75 and $3.69 an hour;
2.the minimum wage of the highest 5%
PROBLEMS
• The average life of a certain type of motor
is 10 years, with a standard deviation
of 2 years. If the manufacturer is willing to
replace only 3% of the motors because of
failures, how long a guarantee should she offer?
Assume that the lives of the motors follow a
normal distribution.
PROBLEMS
• A life insurance salesman sells on the average 3 life insurance policies
per week. Use Poisson's law to calculate the probability that in a given
week he will sell
a.Some policies
b.2 or more policies but less than 5 policies.
c.Assuming that there are 5 working days per week, what is the
probability that in a given day he will sell one policy?
PROBLEMS
• A life insurance salesman sells on the average 3 life insurance policies
per week. Use Poisson's law to calculate the probability that in a given
week he will sell
a.Some policies
b.2 or more policies but less than 5 policies.
c.Assuming that there are 5 working days per week, what is the
probability that in a given day he will sell one policy?
PROBLEMS
• If electricity power failures occur according to a Poisson distribution
with an average of 3 failures every twenty weeks, calculate the
probability that there will not be more than one failure during a
particular week.
NORMAL : Z-SCORE VS PROBABILTIY
• You collect SAT scores from students in a new test preparation course.
The data follows a normal distribution with a mean score (M) of 1150
and a standard deviation (SD) of 150. You want to find the probability
that SAT scores in your sample exceed 1380.
• You collect SAT scores from students in a new test preparation course.
The data follows a normal distribution with a mean score (M) of 1150
and a standard deviation (SD) of 150. The scores in your sample are for
the top 10 percent. What is the lowest score?
PROBLEMS
• A company makes electric motors. The probability an electric motor is
defective is 0.01. What is the probability that a sample of 300 electric
motors will contain exactly 5 defective motors?
POISSON VS BINOMIAL
• An average of 0.61 soldiers died by horse kicks per year in each
Prussian army corps. You want to calculate the probability that exactly
two soldiers died in the VII Army Corps in 1898, assuming that the
number of horse kick deaths per year follows a Poisson distribution.
PROBLEMS
• A die is tossed 3 times. What is the probability of
• (a) No fives turning up?
• (b) 1 five?
• (c) 3 fives?
PROBLEMS
• Hospital records show that of patients suffering from a certain
disease, 75% die of it. What is the probability that of 6 randomly
selected patients, 4 will recover?
• n the old days, there was a probability of 0.8 of success in any attempt
to make a telephone call. (This often depended on the importance of
the person making the call, or the operator's curiosity!) Calculate the
probability of having 7 successes in 10 attempts
PROBLEMS
• In a bolt factory, three machines M₁, M₂, and M₃ manufacture 2000,
2500, and 4000 bolts every day. Of their output 3%, 4%, and 2.5% are
defective bolts. One of the bolts is drawn very randomly from a day’s
production and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it
was produced by machine M₂?
PROBLEMS
• Two urns contain respectively 2 red, 3 white, and 3 red, 5 white balls. One ball
is drawn at random from the first urn and transferred into the second one. A
ball is then drawn from the second urn and it turns out that the ball is red.
What will be the probability that the transferred ball was white?
PROBLEMS
• A (blindfolded) marksman finds that on the average he hits the
target 4 times out of 5. If he fires 4 shots, what is the probability of
• (a) more than 2 hits?
• (b) at least 3 misses?
PROBLEMS
• The ratio of boys to girls at birth in Singapore is quite high at 1.09:1.
• What proportion of Singapore families with exactly 6 children will have
at least 3 boys? (Ignore the probability of multiple births.)
PROBLEMS
• A manufacturer of metal pistons finds that on the average, 12% of his
pistons are rejected because they are either oversize or undersize.
What is the probability that a batch of 10 pistons will contain
• (a) no more than 2 rejects? (b) at least 2 rejects?
