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Module - 5: Baye'S Theorem and It'S Use Wumpus World Revisited

The document discusses Bayes' Theorem and its applications in probability, particularly focusing on independent and dependent probabilities. It explains conditional probability and provides examples, including a case study on determining the probability of having a cavity given a toothache. Additionally, it addresses the complexity of applying Bayes' Rule with multiple pieces of evidence and introduces a formula for simplifying calculations under conditional independence.

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apoorva
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26 views9 pages

Module - 5: Baye'S Theorem and It'S Use Wumpus World Revisited

The document discusses Bayes' Theorem and its applications in probability, particularly focusing on independent and dependent probabilities. It explains conditional probability and provides examples, including a case study on determining the probability of having a cavity given a toothache. Additionally, it addresses the complexity of applying Bayes' Rule with multiple pieces of evidence and introduces a formula for simplifying calculations under conditional independence.

Uploaded by

apoorva
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MODULE -5

• BAYE’S THEOREM AND IT’S USE


• WUMPUS WORLD REVISITED
PROBABILITY
• INDEPENDENT PROBABILITY: Independent Probability refers to the
probability of two or more events occurring where the occurrence of
one event does not affect the occurrence of the other(s).

EXAMPLE: Tossing two fair coins:


Let A = “First coin is Heads” and B = “Second coin is Heads”
These are independent because the outcome of one toss does not
affect the other.
P(A)=1/2=0.5 P(B)=1/2=0.5
PROBABILITY
• DEPENDENT PROBABILITY: Dependent probability refers to the
probability of two or more events where the occurrence of one event
does affect the occurrence of the other.
EXAMPLE: A bag has 3 red and 2 green balls.
Event A: Picking a green ball first.
Event B: Picking a green ball second without replacing the first ball.

EVENT A EVENT B

P(A)=2/5 P(B|A)=1/4
• Conditional probability: Conditional Probability is the probability of an
event occurring given that another event has already occurred.
• If A and B are two events, then the conditional probability of B given A
is denoted by:

P(B|A)= P(A ∩ B) / P(A) , provided P(A)>0

•It tells us how likely event B is if we already know that A has


occurred.
•Used in dependent probability situations.
BAYE’S RULE :
• P(a ∩ b) = P(a | b)P(b) and P(a ∩ b) = P(b | a)P(a)

ÞP(b | a) = (P(a | b)P(b))/(P(a)) BAYE’s RULE

\
• SIMPLE CASE
• COMBINED CASE
APPLYING BAYE’S RULE: SIMPLE
CASE
Bayes’ Rule Formula:
P(Cavity|Toothache) = P(Toothache|Cavity).P(Cavity)/P(Toothache)
Where:
P(Cavity|Toothache): Probability of cavity given toothache
P(Toothache∣Cavity): Likelihood of having toothache if there’s a cavity
P(Cavity): Prior probability of having a cavity
P(Toothache): Total probability of having a toothache

PATIENTS REPORT: THEN:


P(Cavity)=0.2
P(Toothache∣Cavity)=0.8
P(Toothache∣¬Cavity)=0.1
P(¬Cavity)=0.8

CONCLUSION: The patient has about a 67% chance of having a cavity given the toothache.
APPYLING BAYE’S RULE: COMBINED
CASE
What if we have more than one piece of evidence (e.g., toothache and probe
catching)??
Þ Computing P(Cause | Evidence1 ∧ Evidence2 ∧ ... ∧ Evidencen) directly using Bayes' rule requires
knowing joint probabilities of all combinations. This approach requires 2ⁿ values for n binary
symptoms — not practical for large n.

If symptoms are conditionally independent given a cause (like a cavity), we can


break the complex joint probability into smaller, simpler parts.

FORMULA:
P(Cavity∣Toothache∧Catch)=α⋅P(Toothache∣Cavity)⋅P(Catch∣Cavity)⋅P(Cavity)
FLOWCHART : CONDITIONAL
INDEPENDENCY
CAVITY

TOOTHACHE CATCH

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