Correlation &
Regression
Correlation
Finding the relationship between two
quantitative variables without being
able to infer causal relationships
Correlation is a statistical technique
used to determine the degree to
which two variables are related
Scatter diagram
• Rectangular coordinate
• Two quantitative variables
• One variable is called independent (X) and
the second is called dependent (Y)
• Points are not joined
• No frequency table
Example
SBP(mmHg)
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80 wt (kg)
60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Scatter diagram of weight and systolic blood
pressure
SBP(mmHg)
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
Wt (kg)
60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Scatter diagram of weight and systolic blood pressure
Scatter plots
The pattern of data is indicative of the type of
relationship between your two variables:
positive relationship
negative relationship
no relationship
Positive relationship
18
16
14
12
Height in CM
10
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Age in Weeks
Negative relationship
Reliability
Age of Car
No relation
Correlation Coefficient
Statistic showing the degree of relation
between two variables
Simple Correlation coefficient (r)
It is also called Pearson's correlation
or product moment correlation
coefficient.
It measures the nature and strength
between two variables of
the quantitative type.
The sign of r denotes the nature of
association
while the value of r denotes the
strength of association.
If the sign is +ve this means the relation
is direct (an increase in one variable is
associated with an increase in the
other variable and a decrease in one
variable is associated with a
decrease in the other variable).
While if the sign is -ve this means an
inverse or indirect relationship (which
means an increase in one variable is
associated with a decrease in the other).
The value of r ranges between ( -1) and ( +1)
The value of r denotes the strength of the
association as illustrated
by the following diagram.
strong intermediate weak weak intermediate strong
1- -0.75 -0.25 0 0.25 0.75 1
indirect Direct
perfect perfect
correlation correlation
no relation
If r = Zero this means no association or
correlation between the two variables.
If 0 < r < 0.25 = weak correlation.
If 0.25 ≤ r < 0.75 = intermediate correlation.
If 0.75 ≤ r < 1 = strong correlation.
If r = l = perfect correlation.
How to compute the simple correlation
coefficient (r)
xy x y
r n
( x) 2
( y)
2
x
2 . y
2
n n
:Example
A sample of 6 children was selected, data about their
age in years and weight in kilograms was recorded as
shown in the following table . It is required to find the
correlation between age and weight.
serial Age Weight
No (years) (Kg)
1 7 12
2 6 8
3 8 12
4 5 10
5 6 11
6 9 13
These 2 variables are of the quantitative type, one
variable (Age) is called the independent and
denoted as (X) variable and the other (weight)
is called the dependent and denoted as (Y)
variables to find the relation between age and
weight compute the simple correlation coefficient
using the following formula:
xy x y
r n
( x) 2
( y)2
x2 . y
2
n n
Age Weight
Serial
(years) (Kg) xy X2 Y2
.n
(x) (y)
1 7 12 84 49 144
2 6 8 48 36 64
3 8 12 96 64 144
4 5 10 50 25 100
5 6 11 66 36 121
6 9 13 117 81 169
Total =x∑ =y∑ xy=∑ =x2∑ =y2∑
41 66 461 291 742
41 66
461
r 6
(41)2 (66)2
291 . 742
6 6
r = 0.759
strong direct correlation
EXAMPLE: Relationship between Anxiety and
Test Scores
Anxiety Test X2 Y2 XY
)X( score (Y)
10 2 100 4 20
8 3 64 9 24
2 9 4 81 18
1 7 1 49 7
5 6 25 36 30
6 5 36 25 30
X = 32∑ Y = 32∑ X2 = 230∑ Y2 = 204∑ XY=129∑
Calculating Correlation Coefficient
(6)(129) (32)(32) 774 1024
r .94
6(230) 32 6(204) 32
2 2
(356)(200)
r = - 0.94
Indirect strong correlation
Exercise
As a fresh graduate, you have been tasked to investigate the cause of the failure in
mathematics in secondary schools. Some research has mentioned that class size
greatly affects the performance of pupils in mathematics and science. Based on the
:following data presented to you
Avg. Mark in
Class Size Math
20 70
Determine
25 70
whether the
50 63
size of the class 10 85
affects the 70 50
performance 40 66
positively or 43 60
negatively. 70 55
45 63
Regression Analyses
Regression: technique concerned with predicting
some variables by knowing others
The process of predicting variable Y using
variable X
Regression
Uses a variable (x) to predict some outcome
variable (y)
Tells you how values in y change as a function
of changes in values of x
Correlation and Regression
Correlation describes the strength of a linear
relationship between two variables
Linear means “straight line”
Regression tells us how to draw the straight line
described by the correlation
Regression
Calculates the “best-fit” line for a certain set of data
The regression line makes the sum of the squares of
the residuals smaller than for any other line
Regression minimizes residuals
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
Wt (kg)
60 70 80 90 100 110 120
By using the least squares method (a procedure
that minimizes the vertical deviations of plotted
points surrounding a straight line) we are
able to construct a best fitting straight line to the
scatter diagram points and then formulate a
regression equation in the form of:
ŷ a bX
x y
xy n
a y bx bb1
( x) 2
x 2
n
Regression Equation
Regression equation
describes the regression
SBP(mmHg)
line mathematically220
Intercept 200
180
Slope
160
140
120
100
80
Wt (kg)
60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Linear
Linear Equations
Equations
Y
ŷY =bX
a +bX
a
Change
b = Slope in Y
Change in X
a = Y-intercept
X
Hours studying and
grades
Regressing grades on hours
Linear Regression
90.00 Final grade in course = 59.95 + 3.17 * study
R-Square = 0.88
80.00
70.00
2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00
Number of hours spent studying
Predicted final grade in class =
59.95 + 3.17*(number of hours you study per week)
Predicted final grade in class = 59.95 + 3.17*(hours of study)
…Predict the final grade of
Someone who studies for 12 hours
Final grade = 59.95 + (3.17*12)
Final grade = 97.99
Someone who studies for 1 hour:
Final grade = 59.95 + (3.17*1)
Final grade = 63.12
Example
A sample of 6 persons was selected the
value of their age ( x variable) and their
weight is demonstrated in the following
table. Find the regression equation and
what is the predicted weight when age is
8.5 years.
Example
.Serial no Age (x) Weight (y)
1 7 12
2 6 8
3 8 12
4 5 10
5 6 11
6 9 13
Answer
.Serial no Age (x) Weight (y) xy X2 Y2
1 7 12 84 49 144
2 6 8 48 36 64
3 8 12 96 64 144
4 5 10 50 25 100
5 6 11 66 36 121
6 9 13 117 81 169
Total 41 66 461 291 742
Answer
41 66
x 6.83 y 11
6 6
41 66
461
b 6 0.92
2
(41)
291
6
Answer
ŷ (x) 4.7164 0.92x
ŷ (8.5) 4.7164 0.92 * 8.5 12.54Kg
ŷ (7.5) 4.7164 0.92 * 7.5 11.62Kg
12.6
12.4
Weight (in Kg)
12.2
12
11.8
11.6
11.4
7 7.5 8 8.5 9
Age (in years)
we create a regression line by plotting two
estimated values for y against their X component,
then extending the line right and left.
Example 2
Age B.P Age B.P
(x) (y) (x) (y)
20 120 46 128
The following are the
age (in years) and 43 128 53 136
systolic blood 63 141 60 146
pressure of 20 26 126 20 124
apparently healthy 53 134 63 143
adults.
31 128 43 130
58 136 26 124
46 132 19 121
58 140 31 126
70 144 23 123
Find the correlation between age
and blood pressure using simple
and Spearman's correlation
coefficients, and comment.
Find the regression equation?
What is the predicted blood
pressure for a man aging 25 years?
Answer
Serial x y xy x2
1 20 120 2400 400
2 43 128 5504 1849
3 63 141 8883 3969
4 26 126 3276 676
5 53 134 7102 2809
6 31 128 3968 961
7 58 136 7888 3364
8 46 132 6072 2116
9 58 140 8120 3364
10 70 144 10080 4900
Answer
Serial x y xy x2
11 46 128 5888 2116
12 53 136 7208 2809
13 60 146 8760 3600
14 20 124 2480 400
15 63 143 9009 3969
16 43 130 5590 1849
17 26 124 3224 676
18 19 121 2299 361
19 31 126 3906 961
20 23 123 2829 529
11448 4167
Answer
x y 114486
852 2630
xy n 20
b1 0.4547
( x) 2 = 852 2
x2 41678
n 20
ŷ =112.13 + 0.4547 x
for age 25
B.P = 112.13 + 0.4547 * 25=123.49 = 123.5 mm hg
Exercise
As a fresh graduate, you have been tasked to investigate the cause of the failure in
mathematics in secondary schools. Some research has mentioned that class size
greatly affects the performance of pupils in mathematics and science. Based on the
:following data presented to you
Avg. Mark in
Class Size Math
Using regression 20 70
analysis, 25 70
determine the 50 63
average 10 85
performance of 70 50
the class with the 40 66
size of 27. 43 60
70 55
45 63
