7-1 Introduction
• The field of statistical inference consists of those
methods used to make decisions or to draw conclusions
about a population.
• These methods utilize the information contained in a
sample from the population in drawing conclusions.
• Statistical inference may be divided into two major
areas:
• Parameter estimation
• Hypothesis testing
7-1 Introduction
Definition
7-1 Introduction
7-1 Introduction
7.2 Sampling Distributions and the
Central Limit Theorem
Statistical inference is concerned with making decisions about
a population based on the information contained in a random
sample from that population.
Definitions:
7.2 Sampling Distributions and the
Central Limit Theorem
7.2 Sampling Distributions and the
Central Limit Theorem
Figure 7-1 Distributions
of average scores from
throwing dice. [Adapted with
permission from Box, Hunter,
and Hunter (1978).]
7.2 Sampling Distributions and the
Central Limit Theorem
Example 7-1
7.2 Sampling Distributions and the
Central Limit Theorem
Figure 7-2 Probability for Example 7-1
7.2 Sampling Distributions and the
Central Limit Theorem
Approximate Sampling Distribution of a
Difference in Sample Means
7-3 General Concepts of Point Estimation
7-3.1 Unbiased Estimators
Definition
7-3 General Concepts of Point Estimation
Example 7-1
7-3 General Concepts of Point Estimation
Example 7-1 (continued)
7-3 General Concepts of Point Estimation
7-3.2 Variance of a Point Estimator
Definition
Figure 7-5 The sampling
distributions of two
unbiased estimators
ˆ 1 and ˆ 2 .
7-3 General Concepts of Point Estimation
7-3.2 Variance of a Point Estimator
7-3 General Concepts of Point Estimation
7-3.3 Standard Error: Reporting a Point Estimate
Definition
7-3 General Concepts of Point Estimation
7-3.3 Standard Error: Reporting a Point Estimate
7-3 General Concepts of Point Estimation
Example 7-5
7-3 General Concepts of Point Estimation
Example 7-5 (continued)
7-3 General Concepts of Point Estimation
7-3.4 Mean Square Error of an Estimator
Definition
7-3 General Concepts of Point Estimation
7-3.4 Mean Square Error of an Estimator
7-3 General Concepts of Point Estimation
7-3.4 Mean Square Error of an Estimator
Figure 7-6 A biased estimator ̂1 that has smaller variance
ˆ .
than the unbiased estimator 2
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Definition
Definition
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Example 7-7
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
7-4.2 Method of Maximum Likelihood
Definition
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Example 7-9
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Example 7-9 (continued)
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Figure 7-7 Log likelihood for the exponential distribution, using the
failure time data. (a) Log likelihood with n = 8 (original data). (b)
Log likelihood if n = 8, 20, and 40.
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Example 7-12
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Example 7-12 (continued)
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
The Invariance Property
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Example 7-13
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Complications in Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation
• It is not always easy to maximize the likelihood
function because the equation(s) obtained from
dL()/d = 0 may be difficult to solve.
• It may not always be possible to use calculus
methods directly to determine the maximum of L().
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Example 7-14
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Figure 7-8 The likelihood function for the uniform
distribution in Example 7-13.
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
7-4.3 Bayesian Estimation of Parameters
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
7-4.3 Bayesian Estimation of Parameters
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Example 7-16
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Example 7-16 (Continued)
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Example 7-16 (Continued)
7-4 Methods of Point Estimation
Example 7-16 (Continued)
