Central Limit Theorem
Chapter 8
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2012 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Sampling Distribution of the
Sample Mean
The sampling distribution of
the sample mean is a probability
distribution consisting of all
possible sample means of a
given sample size selected from
a population.
8-2
Central Limit Theorem
CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM If all samples of a particular size are
selected from any population, the sampling distribution of the sample
mean is approximately a normal distribution. This approximation
improves with larger samples.
If the population follows a normal probability distribution, then for
any sample size the sampling distribution of the sample mean will
also be normal.
If the population distribution is symmetrical (but not normal), the
normal shape of the distribution of the sample mean emerge with
samples as small as 10.
If a distribution that is skewed or has thick tails, it may require
samples of 30 or more to observe the normality feature.
The mean of the sampling distribution equal to μ and the variance
equal to σ2/n.
8-3
8-4
Standard Error of the Mean
1. The mean of the distribution of sample means will be exactly
equal to the population mean if we are able to select all
possible samples of the same size from a given population.
2. There will be less dispersion in the sampling distribution of the
sample mean than in the population. As the sample size
increases, the standard error of the mean decreases
8-5
Using the Sampling
Distribution of the Sample Mean (Sigma Known)
If a population follows the normal distribution, the sampling
distribution of the sample mean will also follow the normal
distribution.
If the shape is known to be nonnormal, but the sample contains
at least 30 observations, the central limit theorem guarantees the
sampling distribution of the mean follows a normal distribution.
To determine the probability a sample mean falls within a
particular region, use:
X
z
n
8-6
Using the Sampling
Distribution of the Sample Mean
(Sigma Unknown)
If the population does not follow the normal
distribution, but the sample is of at least 30
observations, the sample means will follow the
normal distribution.
To determine the probability a sample mean falls
within a particular region, use:
X
t
s n
8-7
Using the Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean
(Sigma Known) - Example
The Quality Assurance Department for Cola, Inc., maintains records
regarding the amount of cola in its Jumbo bottle. The actual amount
of cola in each bottle is critical, but varies a small amount from one
bottle to the next. Cola, Inc., does not wish to underfill the bottles.
On the other hand, it cannot overfill each bottle. Its records indicate
that the amount of cola follows the normal probability distribution.
The mean amount per bottle is 31.2 ounces and the population
standard deviation is 0.4 ounces.
At 8 A.M. today the quality technician randomly selected 16 bottles
from the filling line. The mean amount of cola contained in the
bottles is 31.38 ounces.
Is this an unlikely result? Is it likely the process is putting too much
soda in the bottles? To put it another way, is the sampling error of
0.18 ounces unusual?
8-8
Using the Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean
(Sigma Known) - Example
Step 1: Find the z-value corresponding to the
sample mean of 31.38
X 31.38 31.20
z 1.80
n $0.4 16
8-9
Using the Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean
(Sigma Known) - Example
Step 2: Find the probability of observing a Z equal
to or greater than 1.80
8-10
Using the Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean
(Sigma Known) - Example
What do we conclude?
It is unlikely, less than a 4
percent chance, we could
select a sample of 16
observations from a normal
population with a mean of 31.2
ounces and a population
standard deviation of 0.4
ounces and find the sample
mean equal to or greater than
31.38 ounces.
We conclude the process is
putting too much cola in the
bottles.
8-11
