TRIP DISTRIBUTION
TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING (CE123) ENGR. JOMAR S. RAMOS
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Trip distribution (or destination choice or zonal interchange analysis),
is the second component (after Trip Generation, but before Mode Choice
and Route Choice) in the traditional four-step transportation forecasting
model.
This step matches tripmakers’ origins and destinations to develop a “trip
table”, a matrix that displays the number of trips going from each origin to
each destination. Historically, trip distribution has been the least developed
component of the transportation planning model.
TRIP DISTRIBUTION OBJECTIVES
• Replicate spatial pattern of trip making
• Account for spatial separation among origins
and destinations (proximity in terms of time,
cost, & other factors)
• Account for attractiveness among TAZs
• Reflect human behavior
• Input : Socioeconomic Data
Land Use Data
TAZ Productions TAZ Attractions
1 1 12 1 9
3 2 19 2 12
2 5 3 35 3 4
4 4 4 38
4 8 5 5 5 45
7
6 10 6 6
6 7 13 7 4
8 22 8 2
• Output: Trip Ends by Trip Purpose
Trip Generation to Trip Distribution
Zone 2 TRIP MATRIX
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 1 Zone 5
Zone 6
Zone 7
Zone 8
TWO BASIC METHODS
1. Growth Factor Method
Constant Factor Method
Average Factor Method
Fratar Method
Furness Method
2. Synthetic Methods
Gravity Model
Opportunity Model
MODEL COMPARISON
Model Advantages Disadvantages
Growth Factor Simple Does not reflect changes in the
Easy to balance origin and frictions between zones
destination trips at any Does not reflect changes in the
zone network
Gravity Specific account of friction Requires extensive calibration
and interaction between Long iterative process
zones
UNIFORM GROWTH FACTOR MODEL
i = I = Production Zone
j = J = Attraction Zone
Tij = τ tij for each pair i and j
Tij = Future Trip Matrix
tij = Base-year Trip Matrix
τ = General Growth Rate
UNIFORM GROWTH FACTOR MODEL
If we assume τ = 1.2 (growth rate), then…
TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 5 50 100 200
2 50 5 100 300 Trip Matrix, t
3 50 100 5 100 (2008)
4 100 200 250 20
Tij = τ tij
= (1.2)(5)
=6
TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 6 60 120 240
Trip Matrix, T
2 60 6 120 360
3 60 120 6 120 (2018)
4 120 240 300 24
FRATAR’S GROWTH-FACTOR METHOD
Sample Problems:
Sample Problems:
Sample Problems:
O/D A B C D Ʃ Ʃ Future GF
A 80
B 114
C 48
D 38
Ʃ
Ʃ Future 80 114 48 38
GF
Sample Problems:
THE GRAVITY MODEL
The Inspiration for the Gravity Model
M1 M 2
F=k
r2
THE GRAVITY MODEL
Variables
Tij = Qij = Trips Volume between i & j
Fij = 1/Wcij = Friction Factor
Wij = Generalized Cost (including travel time, cost)
c = Calibration Constant
pij = Probability that trip i will be attracted to zone j
kij = Socioeconomic Adjustment Factor
THE GRAVITY MODEL
Pi Aj FijKij
Tij = Qij = = Pipij
ΣAjFijKij
(Productions)(Attractions)(Friction Factor)
= Sum of the (Attractions x Friction Factors) of the Zones
Fij = 1 / Wcij & ln F = - c ln W
The bigger the friction factor,
the more trips that are encouraged
THE GRAVITY MODEL
What we need…
1. Productions, {Pi}
2. Attractions, {Aj}
3. Skim Tables {Wij)
Target-Year Interzonal Impedances
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Given:
Target-year Productions, {Pi}
Relative Attractiveness of Zones, {Aj}
Skim Table, {Wij}
Calibration Factor, c = 2.0
Socioeconomic Adjustment Factor, K = 1.0
Find:
Trip Interchanges, {Qij}
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Target-Year Inter-zonal
Given… Impedances, {Wij}
TAZ Productions TAZ "Attractiveness" TAZ 1 2 3 4 Calibration Factor
1 1500 1 0 1 5 10 15 20 c = 2.0
2 0 2 3 2 10 5 10 15
3 2600 3 2
3 15 10 5 10 Socioeconomic Adj. Factor
4 0 4 5
Σ 4100 4 20 15 10 5 K = 1.0
Σ 10
Calculate Friction Factors, {Fij}
TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 0.0400 0.0100 0.0044 0.0025 1 1
2 0.0100 0.0400 0.0100 0.0044 Fij = c = F11= 52 = 0.04
3 0.0044 0.0100 0.0400 0.0100 W ij
4 0.0025 0.0044 0.0100 0.0400
Find Denominator of Gravity Model Equation {AjFijKij}
TAZ 1 2 3 4 Σ
1 0.0000 0.0300 0.0089 0.0125 0.0514 AjFijKij=A4F34K34
2 0.0000 0.1200 0.0200 0.0222 0.1622
0.1600
(5)(0.01)(1.0) = 0.05
3 0.0000 0.0300 0.0800 0.0500
4 0.0000 0.0133 0.0200 0.2000 0.2333
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Find Probability that Trip i will be attracted to Zone j, {pij}
TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 0.0000 0.5838 0.1730 0.2432 AjFijKij 0.05
2 0.0000 0.7397 0.1233 0.1370
pij = = = 0.3125
3
4
0.0000
0.0000
0.1875
0.0571
0.5000
0.0857
0.3125
0.8571
Σ(AjFijKij) 0.16
Find Trip Interchanges, {Qij}
TAZ 1 2 3 4 Σ
1 0 876 259 365 1500
2 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 488 1300 813 2600 Qij = Pipij = (2600)(0.3125) = 813
4 0 0 0 0 0
Σ 0 1363 1559 1177 4100
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Keep in mind that the socioeconomic factor, K, can be a matrix of
values rather than just one value
TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.9
2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.4
3 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.3
4 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.6
The Problem with K-Factors
• Although K-Factors may improve the model in the base year,
they assume that these special conditions will carry over to
future years and scenarios
• This limits model sensitivity and undermines the model’s ability
to predict future travel behavior
• The need for K-factors often is a symptom of other model
problems.
•Additionally, the use of K-factors makes it more difficult to
figure out the real problems
• Too much of a reliance on K-Factors in calibration
• External trips and intrazonal trips cause difficulties
• The skim table impedance factors are often too simplistic
to be realistic
• Typically based solely upon vehicle travel times
•At most, this might include tolls and parking costs
• Almost always fails to take into account how things such as
good transit and walkable neighborhoods affect trip
distribution
• No obvious connection to behavioral decision-making
