Introduction & Overview

Paulus Tangkere
Systems Modeling and Simulations
Session 1
 Course Goals pt

This course is designed to help students

understand approaching methods of real
problem solving by using system – modeling
its parts relatedness, identifying its
behaviors, and then develop simulation
models, to visualize, analyze and improve
the performance of manufacturing and
service systems.
 Course Objectives pt
• To develop understanding on concepts of systems, models,
simulations, and their roles in organizations.
• To improve skills to formulate problems into a model, to
identify its behaviors, then develop simulation project.
• To improve skills to perform simulation experiments, analyze
the results and draw conclusions – to collect and analyze data
required for a simulation model.
• To gain experience with steps in systems modeling as well as
in managing a simulation project successfully, especially to
ensure that a simulation model has been verified and
validated so there is sufficient confidence to use the model in
decision-making.
 Syllabus pt
1. Introduction & Overview
2. Problem Solving and Model Development
3. System Characteristics & Behaviors
4. Simulation Fundamentals and Principles
5. Problem Definition and System Identification
6. Input Data Analysis and Modeling
7. Random Number Generation
 Syllabus-cont pt
8. Model Translation
9. Verification and Validation
10.Group Presentation I
11.Group Presentation II
12.Group Presentation III
13.Improving Simulation Validity and Credibility
14.Review
 References pt
• Chung, Christopher A., Simulation modeling
handbook: a practical approach. Industrial and
Manufacturing Engineering Series. CRC Press, 2004.
• Banks, Jerry et al., Discrete-Event System
Simulation, 5th Edition. Prentice Hall, 2009.
• Pidd, Michael (ed.), Systems modeling: theory and
practice. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2004.
• Laguna, Manuel and Johan Marklund, Business
Process Modeling, Simulation and Design, 1st
Edition. Prentice Hall, 2005.
 Methodology pt
• Lectures
• Readings
• Case Studies
• Assignments
 Grading pt
• Midterm : 30%
• Final : 40%
• Others : 30%
– Assignments – individual and group
– Class Participation
– (Course) Session Summary
– Quiz – pretests and posttests
 Assignment Submission pt
• No copy-paste.
• Submit electronically (email)
– to ptforbu@yahoo.com
– Use specified format: kmk-nim/kel-tgs both in
Subject and File Name
– 2 (two) days before next class.
• Group Presentations – a week before schedule
 Group pt
• Consists of max. 5 students
• Responsibilities
– Distributed
– Team
– Personal/Individual
• Internal communications
 Communication pt
ptforbu@yahoo.com

Format: kmk-nim/kel-tgs
kmk = kode mata kuliah
nim = nomor induk mahasiswa atau
kel = kelompok
tgs = nama tugas
 Industrial Engineering pt
• What is? (IIE official definition)
Industrial engineering is concerned with the design,
improvement and installation of integrated systems
of people, materials, information, equipment and
energy. It draws upon specialized knowledge and skill
in the mathematical, physical, and social sciences
together with the principles and methods of
engineering analysis and design, to specify, predict,
and evaluate the results to be obtained from such
systems.
 Definition pt
What is a system?
“A system is a group of people, things and/or
ideas connected by some common reason or
purpose, that is clearly differentiated from its
surroundings, and which has attributes or
properties that are different from those its
members have individually, and the belonging
to which alters those members in some
way…..as perceived or conceived by an
individual human being.”
(Hicks, 1991)
 Definition pt
What is a model?
• representation of a system.
• a simplification of the system.
• a picture of the real world.
 Definition pt
System modeling
• is a technique
• to express, visualize, analyze and transform
the architecture of a system
 System modelling pt
• System modelling helps the analyst to understand
the functionality of the system and models are used
to communicate with stakeholders.
• Different models present the system from different
perspectives
– External perspective showing the system’s context or
environment;
– Behavioural perspective showing the behaviour of the
system;
– Structural perspective showing the system or data
architecture.
 System Classification pt
• Natural vs. Design
• Actual (Real) vs. Model
• Open vs. Closed
 Model Classification pt
• Forms: Iconic, Analog, Symbolic
• Functions: Descriptive, Predictive, Normative
• Events: Deterministic vs. Probabilistic
(Stochastic)
• Time: Static vs. Dynamic
• Process: Continuous vs. Discrete
 Group Discussion pt
Modeling the following system
1. Classroom system
2. Production system
3. Ballpoint system
4. Book system
5. Tree plant system
6. House system
 What is Simulation? pt
• Simulation means imitation of reality.
• The purpose of simulation in the business
world is to understand the behavior of a
system.
• Before making many important decisions, we
simulate the result to insure that we are
doing the right thing.
 Systems and Models pt

System

Study/experiment Study/experiment
with the with a model of
actual system the system

Physical Mathematical or
model logical model

Analytical Simulation
model model
 Modeling and Simulation pt

Real System
Model
Validation Hypothesis
Simulation Concept Tests
Modeling

Computer Computer Concept

Model Programming Model

Model Verification
 Why Simulation pt
• Gaining insight into the operation of a system
• Developing operating or resource policies to
improve system performance
• Testing new concepts and/or systems before
implementation
• Gaining information without disturbing the
actual system
 When to use Simulation pt
• Experimentation is not possible. Actually, if
we can do a real experiment, the results
would obviously be better than simulation.
• The analytical solution procedure is not
known. If analytical formulas are known then
we can find the actual expected value of the
results quickly by using the formulas. In
simulation we can hope to get the same
results after simulating thousands of times.
 Types of simulation… pt
• Deterministic and probabilistic Simulation
– Deterministic simulation is used when process is
very complex or consists multiple stages with
complicated (but known) procedural interactions
between them;
– Probabilistic simulation is used when one or more
of the independent variables is probabilistic i.e. it
follows a certain probability distribution.
 …Types of simulation… pt
• Time dependent and independent simulation
– In time independent simulation, it is not
important to known exactly when the event is
likely to occur. E.g. we know demand of 3 units
per day but don’t know when during the day the
item was demanded.
– In time dependent it is important to know the
precise time when the event is likely to occur. In a
queuing situation the precise time of arrival of
customer must be known (to know if the
customer will have to wait)
 …Types of simulation… pt
• Visual Interactive Simulation – uses computer
graphic displays to present the consequences
of change in the value of input variation in the
model. The decisions are implemented
interactively while the simulation is running.
The decision maker keep track of
development of model on a graphic interface
and can alter the simulation as it progress.
 …Types of simulation pt
• Business Games – several participants who
play a role in a game that simulates a realistic
competitive situation. Individual or teams
compete to achieve their goals in competition
with the other individual or team.
• Corporate and Financial Simulation – used in
corporate planning, especially the financial
aspects. The model integrate production,
finance, marketing, and possibly other
functions, into one model.
 Simulation in Business pt
• Simulation of Inventory Problem
• Simulation of Queuing Problem
• Simulation of investment problem
• Simulation of Maintenance Problem
• Simulation of PERT Problem
 Advantages of Simulation pt
• Solves problems that are difficult or
impossible to solve mathematically
• Allows experimentation without risk to actual
system
• Compresses time to show long-term effects
• Serves as training tool for decision makers
 Limitations of Simulation pt
• Does not produce optimum solution
• Model development may be difficult
• Computer run time may be substantial
• Monte Carlo simulation only applicable to
random systems