MAT629: MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY

Milliward Maliyoni, PhD

Department of Mathematical Sciences

School of Natural and Applied Sciences
University of Malawi, Zomba

MSc in Mathematical Sciences Programme

October 2024

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 1 / 74
Module Aim

To equip students with mathematical methods required to construct and

solve models of biological systems in order to understand the qualitative
behaviour of biological systems thereby providing answers to practical
biological questions.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 2 / 74
Intended Learning Outcomes

On successful completion of this module students should be able to:

(a) Explain terminology used in infectious disease modelling.

(b) Explain the modelling process.
(c) Discuss types of models in infectious disease modelling.
(d) Formulate a mathematical model from a biological problem.
(e) Carry out qualitative analysis of selected epidemic models.
(f) Simulate mathematical models of biological systems using
mathematical computing packages such as MATLAB, R, Maple,
Mathematica, Python, etc.
(g) Interpret analytical and numerical solutions of mathematical models of
biological systems.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 3 / 74
Mathematical Modelling Concepts

The practice of formulating and verifying hypotheses regarding

models, followed by refining designs or theories, originates from the
experimental sciences.
Computational scientists, ecologists, conservation biologists, and
similar professionals employ modelling to scrutinize intricate,
real-world problems, in order to predict what might happen with some
course of action.

Definition
Modelling is the application of methods to analyse complex, real-world
problems in order to make predictions about what might happen with
various actions.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 4 / 74
Definition
Mathematical modelling is the process of constructing mathematical
objects whose behaviours or properties correspond in some way to a
particular real-world system.

In other words, we wish to construct a mathematical representation of

the real world.
A mathematical object could be a system of equations (ordinary
differential equations, partial differential equations, etc.), a stochastic
(or random) process, a geometric or algebraic structure, an algorithm,
or even just a set of numbers.
The phrase real-world system can encompass a physical system, a
financial system, a social system, an ecological system, or essentially
any other system whose behaviours are observable.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 5 / 74
Why Model?

What is the motivation behind mathematical modeling?

There are numerous particular reasons, yet the majority are in some
manner connected to the following two:

1. To gain understanding or insight

- In broad terms, when we have a mathematical model that effectively and
accurately mirrors a certain behaviour of a real-world system under
scrutiny, we can often gain improved understanding of that system
through analysis of the model.
- Furthermore, in the process of building the model we ascertain the pivotal
factors within the system, and how different parts of the system are
related.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 6 / 74
2. To predict or simulate
- Frequently, there’s a desire to forecast the future behaviour of a real-world
system. However, conducting direct experiments with the system is often
costly, impractical, or not feasible.
- Examples include the design of nuclear reactors, space exploration, species
extinction, weather prediction, drug efficacy (effectiveness) in humans,
transmission of diseases, and so on.

It’s clear that a significant portion of contemporary science revolves

around mathematical modelling.
The age-old saying “mathematics is the language of science” holds
true.
Scientists rely on mathematics to articulate real-world phenomena,
with much of this endeavour being mathematical modelling.
With the decreasing costs and increasing power of computers, coupled
with their widespread adoption, mathematical models are assuming an
ever more crucial role in scientific pursuits.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 7 / 74
 From a business standpoint, it’s evident that enhanced capabilities in
simulating, predicting, or comprehending specific real-world systems
via mathematical modelling offer a significant competitive edge.
Examples include the stock market, aircraft development, oil
extraction, and semiconductor fabrication.
Moreover, just as in pure science, as computational capacity becomes
more affordable, modelling emerges as a progressively cost-effective
alternative to direct experimentation.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 8 / 74
Model Classifications

There are several classification categories for models. If a system

being modeled involves an element of chance, it demonstrates
probabilistic or stochastic behavior.
Definition
A system exhibits probabilistic or stochastic behaviour if an element of
chance exists. Otherwise, it exhibits deterministic behaviour. A
probabilistic or stochastic model exhibits random effects, while a
deterministic model does not.
Models can also be categorized as either static or dynamic.

Definition
A static model does not consider time, while a dynamic model changes
with time.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 9 / 74
 In cases where time changes continuously and without interruption,
the model is considered continuous.
However, if time progresses in discrete, incremental steps, the model
is classified as discrete.

Definition
In a continuous model, time changes continuously, while in a discrete
model time changes in incremental steps.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 10 / 74
Modelling Process

Unfortunately, there is no single algorithm that can be relied upon to

create a mathematical model suitable for all situations.
Modelling is occasionally regarded as an art form.
It entails leveraging your understanding of mathematics and the
system under examination to craft a representation.
Given that individuals possess varied knowledge, preferred
methodologies, and distinct problem-solving approaches, they may
develop different models for the same system.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 11 / 74
 Debates often arise regarding the best model.
It is crucial to acknowledge from the outset that there is no flawless
model for any real system. Trade-offs between accuracy, flexibility,
and cost are always present.
Enhancing the precision of a model typically raises expenses and
reduces adaptability.
The primary objective in model development is usually to attain a
model that is “sufficiently accurate” and flexible while keeping costs
minimal.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 12 / 74
 The modelling process is iterative, as at any stage, we might return to
a previous phase to make adjustments and then continue the process
from that point.
The steps of the modelling process vary but most are as follows:

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 13 / 74
1. Ask the question or analyze the problem
Study the situation sufficiently to identify the problem precisely and
understand its fundamental questions clearly.
Identify the goal of the problem and categorize it based on whether it is
deterministic or stochastic (modelling approach).
A precise identification of the problem is essential for translating it into
mathematical notation and subsequently formulating and solving the
model.
Success in this step requires experience, skill, and familiarity with the
relevant literature.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 14 / 74
2. Formulate a model
In this stage, we create the model as a simplified representation of the
system under examination.
Restate the question posed in step 1 in terms of the modelling approach.
Some of the activities involved in this phase include:
- Gather data
- Make simplifying assumptions and document them
- Determine variables and units
- Establish relationships among variables and sub-models
- Determine equations and functions (many computational science models
involve differential equations, or equations involving a derivative)

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 15 / 74
3. Solve the model
During this phase, the model is implemented.
It is crucial not to rush into this step without a deep understanding of
the problem and a well-designed model, as it can lead to significant time
wastage, which can be highly frustrating.
Various techniques and tools that could be utilized in the solution
process include algebra, calculus, graphical methods, computer
programming, and software packages.
The solution may yield either an exact result or simulate the scenario.
If the model proves too intricate to resolve, it may be necessary to revisit
Step 2 to introduce further simplifications or Step 1 to reconsider the
problem formulation.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 16 / 74
4. Verify and interpret the model’s solution
Once we have a solution, we should carefully examine the results to make
sure that they make sense (verification) and that the solution solves the
original problem (validation) and is usable.
Definition
The process of verification determines if the solution works correctly, while the
process of validation establishes if the system satisfies the problem’s requirements.

Verification is concerned with solving the problem right, and validation is

concerned with solving the right problem.
It is crucial to verify the solution by testing it against real data to ensure
that the predictions align with observed outcomes.
It is essential to exercise caution and utilize our model solely within the
suitable ranges for the independent data.
For instance, our model could be precise when applied to time spans of a
few days but significantly inaccurate when extended to time frames
spanning several years.
If weaknesses are identified in the model solution, we should reassess
Steps 1 or 2 to ascertain if refining the model is feasible. If it is, we
iterate through the process again.
Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 17 / 74
5. Report on the model
Communicating the details of a model is vital for its utility.
Whether it is a scientific report intended for colleagues in a laboratory or
a presentation at a scientific conference, it typically comprises
components that mirror the steps of the modelling process:
(a) Analysis of the problem
(b) Model design
(c) Model solution
(d) Results and conclusions

6. Maintain the model

When employing the model’s solution, there might arise a need or
preference to implement corrections, enhancements, or refinements.
In such instances, the modeller revisits the modelling process to craft an
updated solution.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 18 / 74
Mathematical Models in Epidemiology and Public Health

Mathematical models play crucial roles in epidemiology and public health

in several ways:
1. Understanding Disease Dynamics
Models help researchers and public health officials understand how
diseases spread within populations.
By simulating various scenarios, models can elucidate factors such as
transmission routes, incubation periods, and population susceptibility.
2. Prediction and Forecasting
Models enable the prediction of future disease trends and outbreaks
based on current data and epidemiological parameters.
These forecasts help in resource allocation, healthcare planning, and
implementation of control measures.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 19 / 74
3. Policy Development and Evaluation
Mathematical models provide insights into the effectiveness of different
intervention strategies, such as vaccination campaigns, social distancing
measures, or quarantine protocols.
They assist policy makers in making informed decisions about disease
control and prevention measures.
4. Risk Assessment
Models assess the risk of disease transmission and help identify high-risk
populations or geographic areas.
This information guides targeted interventions to mitigate the spread of
infectious diseases.
5. Evaluating Public Health Interventions
Models allow researchers to evaluate the impact of public health
interventions retrospectively and prospectively.
By comparing observed outcomes with model predictions, researchers can
assess the effectiveness of interventions and refine strategies for future
outbreaks.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 20 / 74
6. Informing Public Health Policies
Mathematical models provide evidence-based support for public health
policies and recommendations.
They contribute to the development of guidelines for disease surveillance,
outbreak response, and healthcare resource allocation.
7. Data Interpretation and Analysis
Models assist in interpreting epidemiological data by identifying patterns,
trends, and underlying dynamics.
They help researchers extract meaningful insights from complex datasets
and understand the drivers of disease transmission.
In summary, mathematical models are essential tools in advancing our
understanding of infectious diseases, informing decision-making in public
health, and ultimately safeguarding the health of populations.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 21 / 74
Introduction to Simple Compartmental Models
Historical Perspective
Daniel Bernoulli (1760) developed a model to control small pox.
W. H. Hamer (1906) formulated and analysed a discrete model for
gaining insights into the recurrence of measles epidemic.
Ronald Ross (1911) used differential equations model for incidence
and control of malaria.
Kermack-McKendrick (1927) developed a transmission dynamics
model (SIR) for a contagious illness in a closed population (having a
fixed number of a population in a strict area no births, deaths due to
disease or deaths by natural causes).
The model explained the rapid rise and fall in the number of infected
patients observed in epidemics such as the plague (London
1665-1666) and cholera (London 1865).
Obtained an epidemiological threshold result that the density of
susceptibles must exceed a critical value in order for an epidemic
outbreak to occur.
Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 22 / 74
Kermack-McKendrick mathematical model

A system of three nonlinear ordinary differential equations:

S 0 (t) = −βSI ,
I 0 (t) = βSI − γI ,
R 0 (t) = γI ,
where
i) t is time,
ii) S(t) is the number of susceptible people,
iii) I (t) is the number of infectious people,
iv) R(t) is the number of people who have recovered and developed
immunity to the infection,
v) β is the infection rate and
vi) γ is the recovery rate.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 23 / 74
Modern Models

Involve aspects such as:

Passive immunity, gradual loss of vaccine, infection-acquired
immunity, stages of infection.
Vertical transmission, disease vectors, social and sexual mixing
groups, spatial spread.
Vaccination, quarantine, age structure, antiviral treatment, etc.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 24 / 74
Dynamics of Infection
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogens that are transmitted either
directly between persons or indirectly via a vector or the environment.
Therefore also called communicable diseases, because their
transmission relies on some form of contact between individuals of a
population.
The spread of an infectious disease through populations is determined
by characteristics of the infectious agent, the host, and the
environment.
Infectious agents are characterized by their biological properties, their
host spectrum and natural occurrence.
Host characteristics are, for example, susceptibility to specific
diseases, immune status, socio-demographic and contact behaviour.
The relationship between host and pathogen is influenced by various
factors, including but not limited to, the immune response, pathogen
virulence, behavioural reactions to disease symptoms, and the
pathogen’s adaptation to treatment.
Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 25 / 74
Definition
An infectious disease is defined as a disease caused by an infectious agent
or its toxic products.

This agent can be transmitted by an infected person, an animal or a

reservoir directly or indirectly through a vector.
Infectious disease epidemiology is concerned with populations, instead
of dealing with individual patients.
In infectious disease epidemiology the study of human contact
patterns play an important role.
These can be contacts between humans, between humans and
animals, between humans and vectors, or between humans and their
environment.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 26 / 74
The Chain of Infection

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 27 / 74
 Portal of entry is the way an infectious agent enters a susceptible host.
Portal of exit is the route by which the infectious agent leaves the
host.
The portal of exit is usually dependent on the localization of the
infectious agent in the host.
The most common portals of exit are respiratory tract (e.g. influenza,
measles, mumps, and rubella), genitourinary tract (HIV, syphilis),
gastrointestinal tract (hepatitis A, Salmonella), through skin
(hepatitis B through needles).

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 28 / 74
Infectious Disease Epidemiological Concepts

Exposure: One of the central concepts of epidemiology is the exposure

of an individual to a potential disease-causing agent or substance.
In case of an infectious disease, their exposure to infectious agents a
pathogen can lead to infection, but does not necessarily lead to
disease.
Infectious agents can be prions, viruses, bacteria, fungi or parasites.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 29 / 74
Stages of Infection and Disease

During the course of an infection, different stages or time periods can

be distinguished regarding the infectivity and presence of symptoms in
the infected individual.
Latent period: is the time interval from infection to the start of the
infectious period.
Incubation period: is the time interval from infection to the onset of
clinical symptoms.
Infectious period: is the time interval during which an infected person
can transmit an infection to other susceptible persons.
The length and relationship of the three periods can impact the speed
at which an infection can spread.
Sometimes the latent period can coincide with the incubation period.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 30 / 74
Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 31 / 74
Endemic Infectious Diseases and Epidemic Outbreaks

Outbreak: is defined as the occurrence of an infection in a population

with an excess of cases in space and time above the expected level.
An outbreak can be small sometimes two linked cases constitute an
outbreak or it can affect large parts of the population.
Epidemic: A larger outbreak that affects a considerable proportion of
a population.
Pandemic: is a global outbreak that affects many or all countries
worldwide.
Endemic: is an infectious disease that has established itself
permanently in a population.
For many endemic infections, the prevalence remains more or less
constant over time as long as no changes occur in intervention or
prevention strategies.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 32 / 74
 By prevention or intervention one can aim at elimination of an
endemic infection from a population.
Elimination on a global scale is called eradication.
Elimination occurs if there is no natural circulation of a pathogen any
longer in a population.
Eradication is reached if a pathogen does not circulate at all any more
in the human population.
Smallpox is the only infectious disease for which eradication has been
achieved at present.
Many endemic infectious diseases have seasonally fluctuating
incidence rates
The seasonality is due to climate conditions, which influence
pathogen survival in the environment, and human contact patterns,
which fluctuate due to activity patterns (e.g. school holidays).

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 33 / 74
Routes of Transmission

An infectious agent may be transmitted to a susceptible host in many

ways.
These routes of transmission are classified as direct and indirect
transmission.
Direct transmission includes direct skin-to-skin contact and close
contact that permits transmission via droplets and aerosols.
Droplet spread occurs by sneezing, coughing or talking at a short
distance.
Source of infection: is the initial point from which the infection
passes to a person.
In directly transmitted infections the source of infection is an infected
person.
In indirectly transmitted infections, sources of infection can be
different materials in the environment (e.g. objects, ground and
water), contaminated or infected foods or infected animal vectors.
Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 34 / 74
 Indirect transmission takes place through vectors or via the
environment.
A vector is an invertebrate animal that becomes infected from
infected animals or persons and transmits the infection to other
persons, e.g. the Anopheles mosquitoes that transmit malaria
parasites from person to person.
Vectors are typically insects or arthropods.
Medical devices like injection syringes can act as vectors for disease
transmission.
Environmental transmission occurs through water, food, soil, air, and
solid surfaces depending on where a pathogen can best survive
outside the host.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 35 / 74
 A reservoir of infection is a living organism or a material in or on
which an infectious agent lives and/or usually multiplies.
Examples of directly transmitted infections include sexually
transmitted infections (transmission by mucous membrane contacts),
toxoplasmosis (transmission through the placenta), HIV and hepatitis
B (transmission by sexual contact and via blood) etc.
Examples of indirectly transmitted infections are hepatitis A
(faecaloral transmission), Salmonella (food), malaria (mosquitoes)
and schistosomiasis (water).

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 36 / 74
Measures of Disease Occurrence

The following are terms that are used to quantify the occurrence of a
disease in a population.
Prevalence: proportion of people with a specific disease at a specific
time point in the population.
So,
n
Prevalence =
N
where
- n is the number of infected or affected people and
- N is the total population.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 37 / 74
 Incidence: proportion of people developing a specific disease during a
time period or rate at which new infections occur.
So,
m
Incidence =
N −n
where
- m is the number of new infections,
- N is the total population and
- n is the original number of infected people.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 38 / 74
 Morbidity: Ambiguously used - prevalence or incidence (state of being
diseased or unhealthy within a population).
Mortality: Number or proportion of persons dying during a time
period.
Fatality rate: proportion of persons dying from a specific disease
among all persons with the disease.
Attack rate: proportion of cases developing the disease among all
persons who were exposed to the disease.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 39 / 74
Mass Action Principle

It states that the net rate at which new cases of infectives arise is
proportional to the number of susceptibles (S) times the number of
infectious individuals (I ) times the probability of transmission from S
to I , β.
This gives βSI .
β is formed from two components:
i. The likelihood of close contact between two individuals such that
transmission can occur.
ii. Probability that transmission will occur as a result of close contact
(innate contagiousness of infectious organisms).
Assumptions
Susceptibles and infectious individuals mix in a homogeneous (random)
manner i.e. you do not choose who to live with.
This mixture can be a strong/weak one.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 40 / 74
Types of Incidences

There are two types:

1. Linear Incidence Rate
Assume that contact rates and infection probabilities per contact are
constant in time and there are three types:
i. Standard Incidence Rate
Frequency-dependent incidence which is given by
βSI
f (S, I , N) =
N
which is the average number of infection transmitted by all infectives per
unit time. N is the total population.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 41 / 74
ii. Mass Action Incidence Rate
Is given by f (S, I ) = βSI which assumes that the contact rate
increases with the total population growth.
iii. Density Dependent Incidence Rate
β(N)SI
Is given by f (S, I , N) = which has a density dependent
N
contact rate β(N).

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 42 / 74
2. Non-Linear Incidence Rate

Also known as saturation incidence.

βSI
Takes the form f (S, I , N) = where c is a constant.
c +S
When the number of susceptibles S is big enough compared to c, the
incidence is approximately βI because

c + S −→ S

since any value of c does not really affect S as such we end up with
βSI
= βI .
S

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 43 / 74
 In other words, a decrease in c results in an increase in the number of
secondary infections and vice-versa.
Contact Number
Is the average number of adequate contacts of a typical infective
during the infectious period.
Adequate contact is one that is sufficient for transmission to occur.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 44 / 74
Reproduction Number/Rate/Ratio, R0

Definition
Is the number of secondary infections produced by a single infected
individual in a totally naive/susceptible population during his/her entire
period of infectiousness.

Number of newly infected cells produced by a single infected cell

(in-host dynamics).
The definition of R0 assumes that no other individuals are infected or
immunized.
It is one of the foremost and most valuable ideas that mathematical
thinking has brought to epidemic theory.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 45 / 74
R0 , A Threshold Criterion

R0 = 1 is a threshold value below which the generation of secondary

cases is insufficient to maintain the infection with the human
community (a situation where a person is not infecting anyone).
If R0 < 1, each individual produces on average less than one new
infected individual and hence the disease dies out.
If R0 > 1, each individual produces more than one new infected
individual and hence the disease is able to invade the population.
For example, if the R0 of an infection is 2, it means that one infected
person on average infects two more people.
R0 value is absolutely critical to understanding how quickly a disease
can spread through a population and how many people can infect
other people.

Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 46 / 74
Source: The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, University of Oxford
Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 47 / 74
 R0 is determined by
- Infectious period: The longer the infectious period, the higher the R0
- Contact rate: How many people an infected person comes into contact
with. For example, R0 will be lower if a person stays at home, higher if
they are out.
- Mode of transmission (shedding potential): Rapid if airborne (flu or
measles). Slower if transmitted by body fluids e.g. Ebola, Hepatitis B,
C, or HIV (ART prevents the multiplication of the virus)
R0 allows us to determine the effectiveness of control measures.
Whatever intervention we make, it must reduce R0 to less than 1.
If R0 < 1, no control measures are needed.
Thus,
i. R0 > 1 : endemic
ii. R0 < 1 : elimination
The formula for the reproduction number is
R0 = β ∗ α
where
- β is infection producing contacts per unit time (probability of disease
transmission)
- α is the mean infectious period/duration
Dr. M. Maliyoni (UNIMA) MAT629 - Math Bio Lecture MSc Math Sciences 48 / 74